The "Butterfly Effect" at planetary / cosmic scales

Having read the OP, in an ATL with the POD centuries ago, the Tunguska meteor:

  • May hit over a thousand kilometers away.

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • May even hit the Moon.

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • May even miss the Earth completely.

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • May not even arrive in the same part of the Solar System. ;)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    35

Zagan

Donor
There is a problem that keeps bugging me...

Is it possible that the "Butterfly Effect" produce any differences upon the Planet Earth at planetary / cosmic scales?

I mean, of course, extremely little variations but which could add up and get noticeable over centuries from the POD.


Let me try and make this a little more clear:

1. A normal (non-ASB) POD occurs some centuries ago. The nature of the POD is irrelevant.

2. The POD (like any other POD) produces an ATL.

3. In that ATL, humans act differently form OTL. Could anything that humans do on Earth influence the celestial mechanics of our planet in any way, however small, but still noticeable over centuries?

Let me try to produce an example: The Suez Canal. Maybe it is built earlier. Or later. Or not built at all. Or it gets built way wider. Then the flow of water through the Oceans, over centuries, will be a little different. The tides will be a little different. The gravitational interraction with the Moon (and less so with the Sun) will be a little different as well.
We already know that the Earth used to rotate faster around its axis in the geological past (the day was shorter), but because of the gravitational interaction between Earth and Moon which creates the tides, the system Earth-Moon lost momentum over the eons and the Moon became tidally locked while the Earth's day got about 4 times longer (it used to be around 6 hours).
So, the day lengthened by about (calculating...) 46,800 seconds in about 4,000,000,000 years, which means an average variation of about (calculating...) 0.0162 milliseconds per year, or about 1.62 ms per century.
The tilt of the Earth also varies over time, currently with about 47 arcseconds per century, mainly because of the redistribution of mass on the Earth's surface (glaciers, etc)
So this variable could also, in theory get influenced by human action, for example by an earlier global warming or a human-induced mini ice age.
So, is it possible that human action (or inaction) somehow alter that very small rate of natural variation of the Earth rotation or tilt?

4. Centuries pass in OTL and centuries pass in ATL. Until the day of 30 June 1908 comes. Will the Earth be in exactly the same spot relative to the Sun both in OTL and in ATL? Probably yes. But will it be rotated in exactly the same position?

I mean, will the Tunguska Meteor / Comet still arrive in the same place in space at the same time?
Almost surely yes. Nothing what humans could have done until 1908 could have influenced in any way a far-away cosmic object.

Will the Earth get at the rendezvous or will it miss it by getting there earlier or later? In my opinion it will not miss. The sideral year could not have changed measurably. So, it will most probably still hit the ATL Earth.

Will it hit at the same latitude? Or at least very close to the latitude of the OTL impact (60 degrees, 55 minutes North)? It depends upon the magnitude of human-induced variation of the Earth's tilt.

Will it hit at the same longitude? Or at least very close to the longitude of the OTL impact (101 degrees, 57 minutes East)? It depends upon the magnitude of human-induced variation of the Earth's rotational period.


For example, if the human influence is of the same order of magnitude with the natural variation of the Earth tilt and rotational period, then:
- The rotational period may diverge from OTL with 1.62 ms per century -- 10 ms in 600 years.
24 hours = 360 degrees, 1 hour = 15 degrees, 1 second = 15 arcseconds, 10 ms = 0.15 arcseconds = a few meters away on an E-W direction.
- The tilt may diverge from OTL with 47 arcseconds per century -- 5 arcminutes in 600 years = a few kilometers away on a N-S direction.

But can the human contribution be so large? Or even larger, like several orders of magnitude larger?


So, what do you think?
In ATL, will the Tunguska meteor still hit the Earth? And if so, where?
Please vote in the poll and comment if necessary.

Thank you.
 
I'm no physicist, but my understanding is that the individual actions of human beings in imparting momentum upon the Earth are so infinitesimally small that even if seven billion humans all started walking in the same direction, you might slow the planet down by a googleth of a second. It's possible that if your TL assumes significant changes in the weather - no Little Ice Age, for ex - you could see some more significant changes, but I'm not sure adding a few microseconds to your day will add up to enough to put the Earth thousands of kilometres behind its rotation after a few centuries. In terms of the life of our planet, the period of human activity has been negligible compared to the length of time Earth has existed.

I suspect that by 1908, the Tunguska meteor will still hit somewhere in Siberia. It may be off by a kilometre or two, but it'll likely still land.
 
I love the idea of minuscule changes to tides, etc, that change the earth's rotation. If we somehow got into the industrial revolution several centuries earlier, we would be at a fairly significant technology level now.

EDIT: Dammit, just reread the OP. Ignore my nonsense below about ASBs. Although some of it could still apply, if technology really accelerated.

How big a change we talking as a PoD? I think that's actually the key point.

Let's go really far out there. Let's say this particular ASB speeds up human development by centuries, even millenia. Maybe they gift their favourite nation with fusion engines, etc etc, or perhaps they ISOT several major scientists, or even a whole country (ISOTing modern America to just before Columbus arrives would be amusing, for instance. And terrifying). Or, amusingly, this is exactly the kind of scenario of For All The Marbles could produce - a medieval civilization upjumped dramatically. Mayybe even an entire advanced alien race happens to notice us.

At the kind of scale of change, everything is out. At the very least, we might have tethered a few asteroids nearby for mining. We could certainly have the technology to both spot and deflect the Tunguska meteor before it ever came close - with FTL, we could destroy it before it even entered our solar system!
 
No. Humans can't affect to rotation and movement of Earth. So even if all humans would have jumped at same second 2500 years earlier Tunguska meteorite would hit exactly to same point exactly same second. There not be anything which could affect to cosmic or geological events. If POD is on 10000 BCE there is still exactly similar Tunguska event. Even Indian Ocean tsunami on 2004 is exactly same as in OTL.
 

Zagan

Donor
No. Humans can't affect to rotation and movement of Earth. So even if all humans would have jumped at same second 2500 years earlier Tunguska meteorite would hit exactly to same point exactly same second. There not be anything which could affect to cosmic or geological events. If POD is on 10000 BCE there is still exactly similar Tunguska event. Even Indian Ocean tsunami on 2004 is exactly same as in OTL.

It seems that you did not read carefully the first post.
I mentioned things that humans do which alter the geography of the Earth, like canals which change tides and currents or climate change which alters the distribution of ice (i.e. mass) on the Earth surface.
And these are positively known to have a measureable influence upon the rotation and tilt of the Earth.
 
Is it possible that the "Butterfly Effect" produce any differences upon the Planet Earth at planetary / cosmic scales?
Planetary, yes - though only very minor changes, as you explain. Cosmic, no - not unless your ATL involves significant space engineering.
Could anything that humans do on Earth influence the celestial mechanics of our planet in any way, however small, but still noticeable over centuries?
Yes - we have undoubtedly influenced the earth in miniscule ways.
So, is it possible that human action (or inaction) somehow alter that very small rate of natural variation of the Earth rotation or tilt?
Yes, in a miniscule way. More for tilt than rotation due to effect on climate.
30 June 1908 comes. Will the Earth be in exactly the same spot relative to the Sun both in OTL and in ATL? Probably yes. But will it be rotated in exactly the same position?
Earth will be in exactly the same position. Its rotation and tilt might be very, very slightly different.
Will it hit at the same latitude? [snip] Will it hit at the same longitude?
So close as to make almost no difference - unless you're looking at individual trees.
But can the human contribution be so large? Or even larger, like several orders of magnitude larger?
No, the majority of the rotational change happened well before life arose on Earth - the rate is significantly slower now.
In ATL, will the Tunguska meteor still hit the Earth? And if so, where?
Yes - so close to OTL that we might not even be able to measure the difference - within a few feet at most.

I'm voting for 'a few millimetres' though if you had given a 'centimetres' option, I'd have chosen that.

Proviso: I'm not a planetary scientist, so please don't throw any stones in the direction of my answers (pun intended :p) - they're based only on broad scientific reading over the years.
 

Zagan

Donor
I'm no physicist, but my understanding is that the individual actions of human beings in imparting momentum upon the Earth are so infinitesimally small that even if seven billion humans all started walking in the same direction, you might slow the planet down by a googleth of a second. It's possible that if your TL assumes significant changes in the weather - no Little Ice Age, for ex - you could see some more significant changes, but I'm not sure adding a few microseconds to your day will add up to enough to put the Earth thousands of kilometres behind its rotation after a few centuries. In terms of the life of our planet, the period of human activity has been negligible compared to the length of time Earth has existed.

I suspect that by 1908, the Tunguska meteor will still hit somewhere in Siberia. It may be off by a kilometre or two, but it'll likely still land.

Yeah.

Planetary, yes - though only very minor changes, as you explain. Cosmic, no - not unless your ATL involves significant space engineering.
Yes - we have undoubtedly influenced the earth in miniscule ways.
Yes, in a miniscule way. More for tilt than rotation due to effect on climate.
Earth will be in exactly the same position. Its rotation and tilt might be very, very slightly different.
So close as to make almost no difference - unless you're looking at individual trees.
No, the majority of the rotational change happened well before life arose on Earth - the rate is significantly slower now.
Yes - so close to OTL that we might not even be able to measure the difference - within a few feet at most.
I'm voting for 'a few millimetres' though if you had given a 'centimetres' option, I'd have chosen that.

Proviso: I'm not a planetary scientist, so please don't throw any stones in the direction of my answers (pun intended :p) - they're based only on broad scientific reading over the years.

Sounds right.

I love the idea of minuscule changes to tides, etc, that change the earth's rotation. If we somehow got into the industrial revolution several centuries earlier, we would be at a fairly significant technology level now.

EDIT: Dammit, just reread the OP. Ignore my nonsense below about ASBs. Although some of it could still apply, if technology really accelerated.

Oh. No ASBs. If ASBs were present, they could have turned the Earth upside-down and it would have hit the Southern Pacific Ocean!
 
The composition of the atmosphere would also affect the angle of descent and burnup rate slightly.
Without more data on what the changes are and what the Tunguska object was and how it was travelling the best we can estimate is changes of millimetres to kilometres in position and milliseconds to minutes in time.
It's too imprecise to warrant a wager!
 
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