Zagan
Donor
There is a problem that keeps bugging me...
Is it possible that the "Butterfly Effect" produce any differences upon the Planet Earth at planetary / cosmic scales?
I mean, of course, extremely little variations but which could add up and get noticeable over centuries from the POD.
Let me try and make this a little more clear:
1. A normal (non-ASB) POD occurs some centuries ago. The nature of the POD is irrelevant.
2. The POD (like any other POD) produces an ATL.
3. In that ATL, humans act differently form OTL. Could anything that humans do on Earth influence the celestial mechanics of our planet in any way, however small, but still noticeable over centuries?
Let me try to produce an example: The Suez Canal. Maybe it is built earlier. Or later. Or not built at all. Or it gets built way wider. Then the flow of water through the Oceans, over centuries, will be a little different. The tides will be a little different. The gravitational interraction with the Moon (and less so with the Sun) will be a little different as well.
We already know that the Earth used to rotate faster around its axis in the geological past (the day was shorter), but because of the gravitational interaction between Earth and Moon which creates the tides, the system Earth-Moon lost momentum over the eons and the Moon became tidally locked while the Earth's day got about 4 times longer (it used to be around 6 hours).
So, the day lengthened by about (calculating...) 46,800 seconds in about 4,000,000,000 years, which means an average variation of about (calculating...) 0.0162 milliseconds per year, or about 1.62 ms per century.
The tilt of the Earth also varies over time, currently with about 47 arcseconds per century, mainly because of the redistribution of mass on the Earth's surface (glaciers, etc)
So this variable could also, in theory get influenced by human action, for example by an earlier global warming or a human-induced mini ice age.
So, is it possible that human action (or inaction) somehow alter that very small rate of natural variation of the Earth rotation or tilt?
4. Centuries pass in OTL and centuries pass in ATL. Until the day of 30 June 1908 comes. Will the Earth be in exactly the same spot relative to the Sun both in OTL and in ATL? Probably yes. But will it be rotated in exactly the same position?
I mean, will the Tunguska Meteor / Comet still arrive in the same place in space at the same time?
Almost surely yes. Nothing what humans could have done until 1908 could have influenced in any way a far-away cosmic object.
Will the Earth get at the rendezvous or will it miss it by getting there earlier or later? In my opinion it will not miss. The sideral year could not have changed measurably. So, it will most probably still hit the ATL Earth.
Will it hit at the same latitude? Or at least very close to the latitude of the OTL impact (60 degrees, 55 minutes North)? It depends upon the magnitude of human-induced variation of the Earth's tilt.
Will it hit at the same longitude? Or at least very close to the longitude of the OTL impact (101 degrees, 57 minutes East)? It depends upon the magnitude of human-induced variation of the Earth's rotational period.
For example, if the human influence is of the same order of magnitude with the natural variation of the Earth tilt and rotational period, then:
- The rotational period may diverge from OTL with 1.62 ms per century -- 10 ms in 600 years.
24 hours = 360 degrees, 1 hour = 15 degrees, 1 second = 15 arcseconds, 10 ms = 0.15 arcseconds = a few meters away on an E-W direction.
- The tilt may diverge from OTL with 47 arcseconds per century -- 5 arcminutes in 600 years = a few kilometers away on a N-S direction.
But can the human contribution be so large? Or even larger, like several orders of magnitude larger?
So, what do you think?
In ATL, will the Tunguska meteor still hit the Earth? And if so, where?
Please vote in the poll and comment if necessary.
Thank you.
Is it possible that the "Butterfly Effect" produce any differences upon the Planet Earth at planetary / cosmic scales?
I mean, of course, extremely little variations but which could add up and get noticeable over centuries from the POD.
Let me try and make this a little more clear:
1. A normal (non-ASB) POD occurs some centuries ago. The nature of the POD is irrelevant.
2. The POD (like any other POD) produces an ATL.
3. In that ATL, humans act differently form OTL. Could anything that humans do on Earth influence the celestial mechanics of our planet in any way, however small, but still noticeable over centuries?
Let me try to produce an example: The Suez Canal. Maybe it is built earlier. Or later. Or not built at all. Or it gets built way wider. Then the flow of water through the Oceans, over centuries, will be a little different. The tides will be a little different. The gravitational interraction with the Moon (and less so with the Sun) will be a little different as well.
We already know that the Earth used to rotate faster around its axis in the geological past (the day was shorter), but because of the gravitational interaction between Earth and Moon which creates the tides, the system Earth-Moon lost momentum over the eons and the Moon became tidally locked while the Earth's day got about 4 times longer (it used to be around 6 hours).
So, the day lengthened by about (calculating...) 46,800 seconds in about 4,000,000,000 years, which means an average variation of about (calculating...) 0.0162 milliseconds per year, or about 1.62 ms per century.
The tilt of the Earth also varies over time, currently with about 47 arcseconds per century, mainly because of the redistribution of mass on the Earth's surface (glaciers, etc)
So this variable could also, in theory get influenced by human action, for example by an earlier global warming or a human-induced mini ice age.
So, is it possible that human action (or inaction) somehow alter that very small rate of natural variation of the Earth rotation or tilt?
4. Centuries pass in OTL and centuries pass in ATL. Until the day of 30 June 1908 comes. Will the Earth be in exactly the same spot relative to the Sun both in OTL and in ATL? Probably yes. But will it be rotated in exactly the same position?
I mean, will the Tunguska Meteor / Comet still arrive in the same place in space at the same time?
Almost surely yes. Nothing what humans could have done until 1908 could have influenced in any way a far-away cosmic object.
Will the Earth get at the rendezvous or will it miss it by getting there earlier or later? In my opinion it will not miss. The sideral year could not have changed measurably. So, it will most probably still hit the ATL Earth.
Will it hit at the same latitude? Or at least very close to the latitude of the OTL impact (60 degrees, 55 minutes North)? It depends upon the magnitude of human-induced variation of the Earth's tilt.
Will it hit at the same longitude? Or at least very close to the longitude of the OTL impact (101 degrees, 57 minutes East)? It depends upon the magnitude of human-induced variation of the Earth's rotational period.
For example, if the human influence is of the same order of magnitude with the natural variation of the Earth tilt and rotational period, then:
- The rotational period may diverge from OTL with 1.62 ms per century -- 10 ms in 600 years.
24 hours = 360 degrees, 1 hour = 15 degrees, 1 second = 15 arcseconds, 10 ms = 0.15 arcseconds = a few meters away on an E-W direction.
- The tilt may diverge from OTL with 47 arcseconds per century -- 5 arcminutes in 600 years = a few kilometers away on a N-S direction.
But can the human contribution be so large? Or even larger, like several orders of magnitude larger?
So, what do you think?
In ATL, will the Tunguska meteor still hit the Earth? And if so, where?
Please vote in the poll and comment if necessary.
Thank you.