Aaron Burr and the Burr Conspiracy was a interesting point in American history and may have narrowly occurred. Getting the book "American Emperor" by David O Stewart as my main resource I want to look into the actions of Burr and the state of the United States at the time period.
After the scandal of the Duel, Burr was pretty much a no body in the eastern, Atlantic States of the US. He was destitute and was reviled in New York and New Jersey in particular. There was though, one exception to this where his actions had not negatively impacted his reputation (and even increased): The West. Namely, Kentucky, Tennessee, and the territory west of the Appalachian Mountains. One senator even invited Burr to practically take a congressional seat. Though, Burr had other ideas. Much more grander ideas.
The divide of the Appalachian Mountains was very pronounced during this period, and Spain was the chief instigator at trying to stop American expansionism. Prior, to Burr and the Constitutional Convention they funded efforts by Rufus King to start New England secession and jump start Kentucky secession by getting the United States to not gain trade rights on the river and use it to give incentives to Kentuckians and gain the loyalty of American settlers.
In 1805 Burr took a tour with his wife through the western states and along the way he met various peoples and increased his fame as his plan for Louisiana grew and grew. From the Creole rulers of New Orleans to members of the Mexican Association (a society of American adventurers who wanted to take Louisiana and Mexico). He had high hopes and relations with such men as Andrew Jackson and Governor of Indiana, William Henry Harrison. He invested in naval shipbuilding along the Mississippi and even intrigued with the Ogden Family in New England for cash. He also intrigued with not only the British, but also the Spanish. The British were not so hard, a six month delay due to the illness of his representative may have made the difference, a buffer state against the Americans and the chance to go westward and claim Mexico (Burr's true prize) again Spain which was at the time Great Britain's enemy. He also intrigued with Spain claiming that he had no desire against Mexico (which he did very much want, but also Peru and all of Spanish America).
This is where he got into bed with Wilkinson. Wilkinson already a Spanish Informant and proposed Agent of Western Secession, was pretty much head of the United States Army. Though, he was a man of less then disciplined nature. Which lead to his betrayal of Burr as views that the United States and Spain were headed toward war. He blinked and sold Burr down river just as Burr was gathering his militia and allies to start a war with Spain and begin the effort for secession.
The timing sadly was perfect, Jefferson was at the time in a deep state of depression over the death of his mentor, but even so it wasn't like he made much effort to stop Burr as rumors and word of his intrigue were already widespread.
Now, it seems that Wilkinson is the lynch pin in a POD for a successful Burr Conspiracy. For this I think their are two capable PODs. Namely, that the British throw their support earlier behind Burr (he wanted a loan and two British warships to stop any effort by the US to blockade New Orleans). Also, the United States needs to go to War with Spain, if this had happened a week or two earlier then events may have moved fast enough to prevent Wilkinson from having second thoughts and throw in Western support for Burr (they all wanted western land). Things were several times very close to bloodshed, soldiers on the Sabine River if they had gone to bloodshed or if agents of Burr had done so or even Settlers with Spanish Grants who were coming into conflict with American Settlers (indeed at the time Burr was assembling his forces to attack the Bastrop Tract).
Another possible point would be if Jefferson had not purchased Louisiana, this may have sped up Burr's support and plans.
After the scandal of the Duel, Burr was pretty much a no body in the eastern, Atlantic States of the US. He was destitute and was reviled in New York and New Jersey in particular. There was though, one exception to this where his actions had not negatively impacted his reputation (and even increased): The West. Namely, Kentucky, Tennessee, and the territory west of the Appalachian Mountains. One senator even invited Burr to practically take a congressional seat. Though, Burr had other ideas. Much more grander ideas.
The divide of the Appalachian Mountains was very pronounced during this period, and Spain was the chief instigator at trying to stop American expansionism. Prior, to Burr and the Constitutional Convention they funded efforts by Rufus King to start New England secession and jump start Kentucky secession by getting the United States to not gain trade rights on the river and use it to give incentives to Kentuckians and gain the loyalty of American settlers.
In 1805 Burr took a tour with his wife through the western states and along the way he met various peoples and increased his fame as his plan for Louisiana grew and grew. From the Creole rulers of New Orleans to members of the Mexican Association (a society of American adventurers who wanted to take Louisiana and Mexico). He had high hopes and relations with such men as Andrew Jackson and Governor of Indiana, William Henry Harrison. He invested in naval shipbuilding along the Mississippi and even intrigued with the Ogden Family in New England for cash. He also intrigued with not only the British, but also the Spanish. The British were not so hard, a six month delay due to the illness of his representative may have made the difference, a buffer state against the Americans and the chance to go westward and claim Mexico (Burr's true prize) again Spain which was at the time Great Britain's enemy. He also intrigued with Spain claiming that he had no desire against Mexico (which he did very much want, but also Peru and all of Spanish America).
This is where he got into bed with Wilkinson. Wilkinson already a Spanish Informant and proposed Agent of Western Secession, was pretty much head of the United States Army. Though, he was a man of less then disciplined nature. Which lead to his betrayal of Burr as views that the United States and Spain were headed toward war. He blinked and sold Burr down river just as Burr was gathering his militia and allies to start a war with Spain and begin the effort for secession.
The timing sadly was perfect, Jefferson was at the time in a deep state of depression over the death of his mentor, but even so it wasn't like he made much effort to stop Burr as rumors and word of his intrigue were already widespread.
Now, it seems that Wilkinson is the lynch pin in a POD for a successful Burr Conspiracy. For this I think their are two capable PODs. Namely, that the British throw their support earlier behind Burr (he wanted a loan and two British warships to stop any effort by the US to blockade New Orleans). Also, the United States needs to go to War with Spain, if this had happened a week or two earlier then events may have moved fast enough to prevent Wilkinson from having second thoughts and throw in Western support for Burr (they all wanted western land). Things were several times very close to bloodshed, soldiers on the Sabine River if they had gone to bloodshed or if agents of Burr had done so or even Settlers with Spanish Grants who were coming into conflict with American Settlers (indeed at the time Burr was assembling his forces to attack the Bastrop Tract).
Another possible point would be if Jefferson had not purchased Louisiana, this may have sped up Burr's support and plans.