The bullet that missed

What if principe missed the target on that fateful day and Ferdinand survived? He gets captured by the authorities and is revealed to be a Bosnian terrorist? Would the incident lead to a ww
 
Very unlikely, there were a lot of failed attacks in the five years before on high persons in Austria-Hungary, provincial governors and the Hungarian premier Istvan Tisza, which didn’t lead to escalation. Also the attempted murder of Franz Josef in 1882 in Trieste by an Italian nationalist didnt lead to such an escalation. The AH empire would have to look for another excuse to put down Serbia a notch. By then, the international constellation might have changed and produced a different result, a Balkan war or a war with no British and US involvement so strictly speaking no wotld war.
 
You have to kill Franz Ferdinand for AH to go to war. He was a realist in that regard (unlike Conrad von Hotzendorf) and knew a war would doom AH. So you would get a very angry ultimatum to Serbia, however it would be the kind of that Serbia could accept without too much loss of face.
 
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