Alls Quiet on the Western Front
October 14, 1941 – London, Underground Command Bunker
Alan Booke Chief of the Imperial General Staff continued this briefing. “It is apparent now that the Soviets are badly mismatched in the Ukraine. German Panzer Units have sliced deep into the rear of the 6th, 26th, 12th, 18th and 9th Armies. Chairman Stalin’s “hold fast order” has meant that few if any will escape being pocketed by the advancing Germans. The bulk of the Soviet tank strength was in the 18th and 9th armies which were committed to the Romanian campaign. We expect the Russians will lose between 1,500 and 2,000 of their latest tanks, which should constitute the bulk of these machines.” “What about men?” asked Atlee “We expect that given Stalin’s refusal to pull back the armies involved the Russians will lose between 400,000 and 600,000 men. Those are conservative estimates of course* By mid-November the Germans should be in possession of the Ukrainian basin. The Russians may be able to make a stand at Kiev, but it is more a matter of German logistics supporting their tanks and infantry than the Soviets having much to stop them.” What about the Red Air Force?” asked Air Vice Marshal Baldwin. “Most of it appears to have been destroyed.” replied Brooke “They lost a good deal in the Polish diversionary attacks and quite a few of their planes were destroyed during this last German offensive, either on the ground or in air to air combat. I expect that it won’t be a factor till next year.” “If there is a next year.” Interjected Atlee “Oh I expect the Russians to hang on. They have been pretty roughly handled, but the Germans have pretty much shot their bolt. The Amphibious landings in Estonia and this Romanian encirclement are probably the last effort they can manage this year. Intelligence says they are running very short of fuel. They will be sometime getting the Romanian fields back into production, so the Russians have some time. The German stop line should run from Estonia, through a divided Belorussia, down along the Dnieper River to Odessa. **
Churchill looked glum. “It would appear gentlemen that the Russians have succeeded in drawing the Huns away, and buying us more time. However, what we do with this time is up to us. I can not hide from you my fixed determination to continue this war to the bitter end. The latest entreaties from Lisbon are quite generous. It would appear that the New German government is prepared to offer us significant concession not only in the West but also in Poland.” “What concession Winston?” asked Atlee “The Germans are prepared to relinquish their hold on the free people of Europe, but not completely. They want to retain Alsace-Lorraine from France, for example. They also wish to obtain or regain some of the colonies in Africa. The greatest sticking point is Poland of course. This government went to war to insure Poland’s sovereignty, now are we to allow it to be hacked up like a hog? The word of England is sacred and gentlemen we have given our word!” He glared around the cabinet, then fixed his eyes on Lord Halifax.
“Mr. Prime Minister if I may speak?” Winston reluctantly nodded in the affirmative. “I have returned from America this week and I want to assure you that the events in Germany have had a dramatic impact there. Whereas previously many of my contacts spoke openly of US involvement many now think it will not happen. When Herr Hitler and his gang of thugs was removed there was a substantive shift in American thinking. They are far more focused on the Pacific than the Atlantic. Many I spoke too thought that a negotiated peace between ourselves and the Germans was inevitable and desirable. The significant Irish American community and the German Americans, both of which are important components of Mr. Roosevelt’s government are particularly adamant for negotiations. It is true that currently there are no plans to suspend Lend Lease or other support, but active participation is simply not in the cards. In fact the Russian attack on Germany has garnered significant sympathy inside the US Military and general public for Beck’s government. I fear that if we are expecting more from the Americans than what they are currently giving, we are going to be bitterly disappointed. We stand alone gentlemen, alone.”
Atlee spoke “Well I for one have had significant problems in the house. At first some of the more left-wing members were the problem. Now they are screaming for support of Russia and the moderates are pushing for a peace. While speaking about England’s word is stirring, it won’t hold this coalition government together. I also know Winston that there are significant numbers of Conservatives that want us to negotiate a peace.” Churchill nodded and took a long pull on his cigar. “If the question is called in the house this government may well not stand. There will be some who will say that a negotiated peace where we regain our advantages of 1940 and place the governments-in-exile back in power is a victory. Those governments themselves are wavering. The Poles are resolute, but the Dutch and Norwegians seem more than willing to explore the offers from Lisbon. “
The Foreign Secretary spoke “To emphasize Clements’ point. There is great danger if we do nothing. The rump government in Vichy is being approached by the Germans as we speak. We have for intelligence sources that the German representative to Vichy will offer Petain a comprehensive and generous peace. Further French are apt to take the bargain. They care little for the colonies that Germany wants or wants back, and even Alsace Lorraine is not enough to keep them in the war.” “They are already out of the war” interjected Brooke “The point is” retorted Eden “they want the Germans out of Paris, they want their country back, and they may just be willing to settle for 90% of it, regardless of what the Free French want. We have a window here, and that window is closing. Soon some of the governments will bolt. If I had to guess I think that the Germans will be able to get the Vichy French to sign a permanent peace treaty. If the Germans are generous and honor their pledge to withdraw there will almost irresistible pressure on the governments in exile to also sign a treaty.” He paused for dramatic effect “We have given our word, but we also serve the people of this country. Sometimes there is a point, in a siege and in war, where the most honorable thing to do, the most sensible thing to do is to get terms. I am willing to fight on, but I don’t think the country will support us.”
Churchill looked crestfallen at his Foreign Minister. Then slowly he looked around the room. Most men met his glaze and he could see the defiance in them, but many, too many looked down. He removed his cigar and was silent for almost a minute before he spoke. “I see in your eyes, in some of your eyes, the specter of appeasement and defeat. It is a spirit that I never hoped to see again in these isles. It is my instinct to fight on, to resist the Germans with every fiber of my being.” He paused “But, I can not lead a divided England into this war. We have fought the Hun now for more than two years, and we have fought him to a standstill. I can not believe that you my fellow countrymen would continence surrender. But it appears that some of you would see the Huns terms. Very well. I shall instruct Campbell to accept the German’s latest offer and I shall submit those terms to the house. If the Mother of all Parliaments want to equivocate, to deal with the devil, I shall not stop them. I shall resign.”
October 20, 1941 – London Times
PEACE!
In a shocking development today a divided Parliament voted to accept in principal the proposed terms from the new German government to end the war. While most leadership in the commons opposed the motion a narrow majority comprise of both Conservative and moderate Labor M.Ps voted to accept the proposals from Lisbon….
Clement Atlee stated that with the ending of wartime considerations that he would withdraw from the government upon the signing of a permanent peace...
October 21, 1941
Von Schulenburg had had the best night sleep in months. The news of the English acceptance of terms lightened his step all day. He drafted a careful memo to the Baron in Lisbon outlining what terms were ‘negotiable’ and which the Baron was to hold firm on. He read it over twice then gave it to his secretary. “See that this goes out to Lisbon by coded message today. Then see that tonight’s diplomatic pouch for Lisbon has this set of instructions.” The secretary nodded, slightly confused. After he left Von Schulenburg pushed his chair back from the desk and crossed his arms. The removal of England was critical. If I can see this through then the Russians will have no choice. The Army may be clamoring for and expanded war in Russia, but they will be baying at the moon for all the good it will do them. Just let me get my man to Molotov, I know we can end things in the East too.
*This encirclement is patterned after the Ukrainian battles where somewhere between 300,000 and 500,000 Russians were pocketed. While the Russians are not being pinched from two sides, they are much deeper in (beyond easy logistical withdrawal and are pinned against the Black Sea.
**This is substantially better (for the Russians) than they did in our TL, where all of Belorussia, the Ukraine and Rostov on the Don were the stop lines, plus the Germans had significant lodgments in Russia, approaching Moscow and Leningrad.
