The Broken Boards War against the Rising Sun (WI Japanese invade Empire of Hawaii during Meiji Rest)

Who would win this war?

  • Empire of Hawaii

  • Japanese empire


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So I was wondering what potential areas could Japan colonize swiftly after it's Meiji Restoration. So I was thinking Hawaii could be annexed before America, so what if Japan went to war against the Empire of Hawaii? Who'd be involved? When would it happen? How would this affect World war I, World war 2, or any other of Japanese wars?

Discuss
 
So I was wondering what potential areas could Japan colonize swiftly after it's Meiji Restoration. So I was thinking Hawaii could be annexed before America, so what if Japan went to war against the Empire of Hawaii? Who'd be involved? When would it happen? How would this affect World war I, World war 2, or any other of Japanese wars?

Discuss

Well for a start it is the Kingdom of Hawaii, secondly it was recognised as a state prior to the ascension of the Emperor Meji by Britain, France and the United States, thirdly there was an active community of European traders in the islands giving all of those powers an interest in Hawaii. The most likely casus belli would be 'mistreatment' of Japanese labourers employed on the sugar plantations but since said plantations tended to be European or American owned with the latter predominant then such a war would likely bring in other powers.

All of this at a distance of nearly four thousand miles.

Things might not end well for the native Hawaiian regime but they certainly would not end satisfactorily for the Japanese.
 
Incredibly difficult.

The overthrow of the Hawaiian government was in 1893 when white business owners overthrew the queen and established a "republic" (which was really just a pretext for Hawaii to be annexed). Japan fought the first Sino-Japanese War in 1894, which would mean that a military invasion of Hawaii would butterfly away the Sino-Japanese War. I don't think the Japanese would sacrifice an attempt to beat back the Chinese in order to invade Hawaii, which was seen rather insignificant at the time (Japan did not have control of the Pacific islands at the time, that came after WW1 and the Treaty of Versailles). China was growing stronger and stronger by day, and to delay a war even for a year or two might have led to a significantly different outcome.

Also, Hawaii was dominated by American businessmen. There would be a huge public outcry if the Japanese invaded and killed American citizens on accident or destroyed American property.

I think for quick colonies, Japan did the right thing in OTL. They took the Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan, Korea, and the German colonies in the Pacific. I guess Japan could try to take a chunk out of mainland China, but that would require an even more successful First Sino-Japanese War (which is pretty difficult because the Japanese did extremely well in OTL).
 
The Broken Boards War against the Rising Sun (A Japanese Hawaii Timeline)

An incredibly misleading title for the contain.
 
Hawaii is really on the periphery of Japanese interests at the time. Perhaps to start with, you should prevent the Japanese government from banning emigration to Hawaii between 1869 and 1885. That way you have an earlier wave of Japanese to Hawaii, first as contract labor for the plantations and later on as foreign investors looking to invest in businesses there. The Japanese at their height were a plurality of Hawaii's population IOTL; once there are enough Japanese and/or mixed Japanese-Hawaiians, the Meiji government will become obliged to take an interest there.

The effect of a large Japanese presence on Hawaii may prompt Emperor Meiji to accept King Kalakaua's proposal to have Prince Yorihito marry his niecePrincess Victoria Kaiulani. This won't mean that Japan would enter into a personal union with Hawaii - Yorihito is from one of the cadet branches. It just means that Hawaii becomes more influenced by Japan than it already is though I suspect it would still become a de facto protectorate of America - just one with more Japanese cultural influences.

Fascinating scenario to imagine the power struggle between the Japanese, Americans and native Hawaiians. Potential for diplomatic intrigue.
 
Hawaii is really on the periphery of Japanese interests at the time. Perhaps to start with, you should prevent the Japanese government from banning emigration to Hawaii between 1869 and 1885. That way you have an earlier wave of Japanese to Hawaii, first as contract labor for the plantations and later on as foreign investors looking to invest in businesses there. The Japanese at their height were a plurality of Hawaii's population IOTL; once there are enough Japanese and/or mixed Japanese-Hawaiians, the Meiji government will become obliged to take an interest there.

The effect of a large Japanese presence on Hawaii may prompt Emperor Meiji to accept King Kalakaua's proposal to have Prince Yorihito marry his niecePrincess Victoria Kaiulani. This won't mean that Japan would enter into a personal union with Hawaii - Yorihito is from one of the cadet branches. It just means that Hawaii becomes more influenced by Japan than it already is though I suspect it would still become a de facto protectorate of America - just one with more Japanese cultural influences.

Fascinating scenario to imagine the power struggle between the Japanese, Americans and native Hawaiians. Potential for diplomatic intrigue.

About that last sentence, this would be a good POD for an early American-Japanese war, if it comes to that. Hawaii is pretty important, but Britan (While not signing their alliance yet) Britan is in favor of Japan, and if Japan could get a treaty signed with them early, and get their permission, they could prove there worth by taking Hawaii, and then defeating Russia in 1905.
 
Incredibly difficult.

The overthrow of the Hawaiian government was in 1893 when white business owners overthrew the queen and established a "republic" (which was really just a pretext for Hawaii to be annexed). Japan fought the first Sino-Japanese War in 1894, which would mean that a military invasion of Hawaii would butterfly away the Sino-Japanese War. I don't think the Japanese would sacrifice an attempt to beat back the Chinese in order to invade Hawaii, which was seen rather insignificant at the time (Japan did not have control of the Pacific islands at the time, that came after WW1 and the Treaty of Versailles). China was growing stronger and stronger by day, and to delay a war even for a year or two might have led to a significantly different outcome.

Also, Hawaii was dominated by American businessmen. There would be a huge public outcry if the Japanese invaded and killed American citizens on accident or destroyed American property.

I think for quick colonies, Japan did the right thing in OTL. They took the Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan, Korea, and the German colonies in the Pacific. I guess Japan could try to take a chunk out of mainland China, but that would require an even more successful First Sino-Japanese War (which is pretty difficult because the Japanese did extremely well in OTL).

Is there a way we can get America to not get involved? I mentioned an early Alliance with Britan, but is there a way for America to not care? Would there also be a way to take Hawaii, and still have the First Sino-Japanese war? I thought Japan had a lot of Japanese in Japan already, so it wouldn't be Japan taking over a Completely alien population.
 
Well where is the TL, this is just a WI

I put timeline at the end of my titles because my titles are always something strange, so I like to elaborate on it on the title, and I think instead of The Broken Boards war against the Rising Sun (WI Japan invaded the Kingdom of Hawaii after the Meiji Restoration) is odd to me.
 
I put timeline at the end of my titles because my titles are always something strange, so I like to elaborate on it on the title, and I think instead of The Broken Boards war against the Rising Sun (WI Japan invaded the Kingdom of Hawaii after the Meiji Restoration) is odd to me.
But that second title is much better, as it is descriptive of the thread, When you give it a name and "Timeline" it sounds like you have written something out
 
Is there a way we can get America to not get involved? I mentioned an early Alliance with Britan, but is there a way for America to not care? Would there also be a way to take Hawaii, and still have the First Sino-Japanese war? I thought Japan had a lot of Japanese in Japan already, so it wouldn't be Japan taking over a Completely alien population.

Very difficult. After the Civil War, the US was already looking to influence the Pacific and started taking islands left and right to establish bases. Hawaii is the biggest chain of islands closest to the CONUS and also smack dab in the middle of the Pacific. The United States needed a strong presence in the Pacific because of Alaska and growing American interests in Asia. Also, Hawaii had some fertile soil that allowed planters to grow tropical fruits and other crops that couldn't be planted in the CONUS.

It would be incredibly difficult for America to ignore Hawaii. The only POD I can think of is if America has a bloodier Civil War, doesn't purchase Alaska, and the latter half of the 20th century is spent on domestic issues. Even then, Hawaii would eventually become a point of interest by American businessmen.

If Japan took Hawaii, they would need to tremendously expand their navy and strain logistics to maintain Hawaii. They don't have any Pacific islands except Okinawa. If Japan takes Hawaii through war, they would need to leave a substantial amount of troops to occupy the Hawaiian Islands, mainly to secure it from natives and also to protect it from potential foreign powers. The First Sino-Japanese War might happen, but it might result in a defeat instead of a victory, allowing China and the foreign powers to dictate terms.

In 1894, they had around 15,000 Japanese civilians out of a population of 94,000. But the majority of the population was Hawaiian or White. If Japan took Hawaii, there is no doubt that the whites living in Hawaii would not be... pleased with Japan's sudden appearance, so they may appeal to the United States and elsewhere to intervene.
 
The effect of a large Japanese presence on Hawaii may prompt Emperor Meiji to accept King Kalakaua's proposal to have Prince Yorihito marry his niecePrincess Victoria Kaiulani. This won't mean that Japan would enter into a personal union with Hawaii - Yorihito is from one of the cadet branches. It just means that Hawaii becomes more influenced by Japan than it already is though I suspect it would still become a de facto protectorate of America - just one with more Japanese cultural influences.

Realistically, that POD is frequently blown out of importance.
Yorihito is the one that refused the marriage since he was already engaged. His half-brother, Prince Komatsu Akihito, was an option, but Victoria wanted a marriage of love, not convenience.

Even if there's that marriage in place, either of the Princes are relatively unimportant and the building blocks for American influence are already in place.

Japan's in no position to do much against America, barring a significantly earlier POD.
 
Realistically, that POD is frequently blown out of importance.
Yorihito is the one that refused the marriage since he was already engaged. His half-brother, Prince Komatsu Akihito, was an option, but Victoria wanted a marriage of love, not convenience.

Even if there's that marriage in place, either of the Princes are relatively unimportant and the building blocks for American influence are already in place.

Japan's in no position to do much against America, barring a significantly earlier POD.

Or Wanking.
 
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