The British Lose NY in 1778.

[Plumber]

In 1778 the harbor of New York, and with it undisputed control of the Hudson River, would have been lost to the English, who were caugh as disadvantage, but for the hesitancy of the French admiral.

The POD pretty much writes itself, unless Mahan is inaccurate here. Who was that French admiral?

 

[Umbric Man]

Who was that French admiral?

D'Estaing, I'd imagine... I've read everywhere he was timid.

 

[Elfwine]

D'Estaing, I'd imagine... I've read everywhere he was timid.

Yep.

I don't know enough about the conditions to say, but the issue of "will my ships run aground" is not to be taken as an entirely unreasonable concern.

That being said, the British didn't mind it. That probably means its manageable.

 

[Admiral Matt]

That would be a disaster for the British. Holding New York largely cut New England off from the other colonies. It was the single most significant Loyalist stronghold and the base of operations for an extremely large contingent.

Honestly, this could end the American theater of the war at a stroke. The British hadn't even begun their attempt to take the Deep South at this point. They couldn't run much of a war from Florida, Rhode Island, and Halifax. Even if they tried the effort would be immeasurably more difficult against a contiguous state and they would be quite aware of the fact.

At a guess? Britain offers a separate peace to the Americans. They hand over the Floridas and proto-Ontario, perhaps throwing in pre-Quebec or Nova Scotia for good measure. Essentially, they concede whatever it takes to ensure the Americans are formally at peace immediately. They wouldn't part with the Caribbean holdings, Bermuda, Newfoundland, or the HBC's claims, but everything else is on the table.

Assuming they can get the Americans to agree, they then turn on the alliance facing them. All told France, Spain, and especially the Dutch do less well out of the war. Possibly there is an earlier French bankruptcy, with all that entails.

 

[Last of the Stuarts]

At a guess? Britain offers a separate peace to the Americans. They hand over the Floridas and proto-Ontario, perhaps throwing in pre-Quebec or Nova Scotia for good measure. Essentially, they concede whatever it takes to ensure the Americans are formally at peace immediately. They wouldn't part with the Caribbean holdings, Bermuda, Newfoundland, or the HBC's claims, but everything else is on the table.

Whilst I agree that this is a disaster for the Brits and the end of the war at a stroke I think the Brits would give up land in current day USA, but not Canada.

My feeling is that they would make trade consessions rather than land concessions, as this was one of the main causes of the ARW.

 

[danwild6]

If the Americans can provide a reliable pilot then the French may attack and quite probably achieve a victory as the French squadron was significantly stronger than Admiral Howe's squadron. This does probably end the war in America but at the very least free's Washington's army for operations elsewhere. It also puts the British firmly on the defensive and gives the initiative to the French and the Americans. Spain may also join the fight at this time.

 

[Wendell]

There are interesting consequences for a much earlier end to this war that I had never considered. I'm glad I saw this thread.

 

[HeavyWeaponsGuy]

Whilst I agree that this is a disaster for the Brits and the end of the war at a stroke I think the Brits would give up land in current day USA, but not Canada.

My feeling is that they would make trade consessions rather than land concessions, as this was one of the main causes of the ARW.

I'm with that sentiment. The British aren't going to give any more to a rebellious, soon-to-be independent colony than they absolutely have to. They're going to want all that Canadian land to build it up for defense not to pawn it off.