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PoD - February 23, 1981 (23-F): A group of francoists successfully takeover the country with the help of several senior officers in the military. The military is subsequently purged from its moderate members. The majority of the population is against this coup but it's neither organized nor armed. Bloodbathes follow throughout the year.
April 1982: Argentina invades the Falklands!
Afterwards in Spain: "What a delightful idea! Let's bomb Gibraltar to appease the masses!!"
Afterwards in Guatemala: "You know what? You know what?!? Fuck it!! Everyone's doing it! Let's invade that sham of a new country that is Belize!"
(It would work better if butterflies antecipate the Argentine invasion for 9 months or so. Also, at least both the Spanish and Argentine right-wing-military-pure-evil regimes could also coordinate beforehand.)