The British-Hispanic War of 1982

PoD - February 23, 1981 (23-F): A group of francoists successfully takeover the country with the help of several senior officers in the military. The military is subsequently purged from its moderate members. The majority of the population is against this coup but it's neither organized nor armed. Bloodbathes follow throughout the year.

April 1982: Argentina invades the Falklands!

Afterwards in Spain: "What a delightful idea! Let's bomb Gibraltar to appease the masses!!"

Afterwards in Guatemala: "You know what? You know what?!? Fuck it!! Everyone's doing it! Let's invade that sham of a new country that is Belize!"



(It would work better if butterflies antecipate the Argentine invasion for 9 months or so. Also, at least both the Spanish and Argentine right-wing-military-pure-evil regimes could also coordinate beforehand.)
 
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King Juan Carlos was pretty fast and effective at weeding out the Francoist old guard. A coup was attempted in 1981 and it was very badly received by the military. It fizzled in three or four hours. By 1984 there would have been no one to participate.


The attack on Belize, however.... That is one of the great lost opportunities by the Guatemalans. The navy had to many fish to fry and if things had turned just a little harryier, they might have pulled it off.
 
Very cool idea, but there are a couple issues:
  • Why would Spain bomb Gibraltar and effectively start war with Britain and all her many allies? I don't think this is justified well... Seems a little ASB.
  • What about this coup? Who are the perpetrators of the coup? Names? Motives?
  • I simply don't see Guatemala invading Belize. It isn't justified well enough. (I don't know much on South American politics though, I could be wrong)
  • I can see that English isn't your first language, so you might want to work on some of the spelling/grammar
  • The TL could use some more detail.

But that's just my first impressions and I'm not an expert on the matter of your TL, so I could easily be wrong. :p
 
Cool idea, but there are a couple issues:
  • Why would Spain bomb Gibraltar and effectively start war with Britain and all her many allies? I don't think this is justified well... Seems a little ASB.
  • What about this coup? Who are the perpetrators of the coup? Names? Motives?
  • I simply don't see Guatemala invading Belize. It isn't justified well enough.
  • I can see that English isn't your first language, so you might want to work on some of the spelling/grammar
  • The TL could definitely use some more detail.

Yeah, I forgot about Gibraltar being in Europe thus being under NATO theoretical protection (Spain joining NATO would be butterflied away of course). It's harder but... still, the Spaniards could think NATO wouldn't meddle.
Anyway, the Argentines invading is pretty insane too. The Spanish regime would be encouraged to do something equally crazy.

This is not a TL per se, it's really just a raw idea.
As for my writing, I'm certainly not a native English-speaker. Care to point out some flaws and give a few tips?
 
miguelrj said:
As for my writing, I'm certainly not a native English-speaker. Care to point out some flaws and give a few tips?
Sure. I edited your writing below and made a couple of corrections. It is nothing major — just one or two mistakes here and there.

PoD - February 23, 1981 (23-F): A group of Francoists successfully takeover the country with the help of several senior officers in the military. The military is subsequently purged of its moderate members. The majority of the population is against this coup but it's neither organized nor armed. Bloodbathes follow throughout the year.

April 1982: Argentina invades the Falklands!

Afterwards in Spain: "What a delightful idea! Let's bomb Gibraltar to appease the masses!!"

Afterwards in Guatemala: "You know what? You know what?!? Fuck it!! Everyone's doing it! Let's invade that sham of a new country that is Belize!"

miguelrj said:
the Spaniards could think NATO wouldn't meddle.
it would be interesting to see NATO's response to this.
 
Sure. I edited your writing below and made a couple of corrections. It is nothing major — just one or two mistakes here and there.




it would be interesting to see NATO's response to this.

Thanks. I ninja'd you on the "successfully" (re-read my text after your remarks and that was a typo. The rest wasn't).

I suppose if this follows a year of bloodbaths of Spanish civilian protesters (or just opponents) NATO shouldn't really be in good terms with Spain. But then again, the trend was: "mheh... at least they're not red"
 
In 1981, the garrison in Belize was 1800 troops with Harriers (2 or 4 IIRC) and Puma helicopters.

This is a bit of a tougher nut to crack than the < 100 marines with dinghies and a decrepit ice-ship in the Falklands that the much larger Argentine military had to over-come.
 
In 1981, the garrison in Belize was 1800 troops with Harriers (2 or 4 IIRC) and Puma helicopters.

This is a bit of a tougher nut to crack than the < 100 marines with dinghies and a decrepit ice-ship in the Falklands that the much larger Argentine military had to over-come.

Besides you are getting very, very, close to Uncle Sam's place and he doesn't appreciate that kind of interference and if there is even a shred of evidence that suggests that the Kremlin is behind the attack, well you just walked into some serious mess.
 
Besides you are getting very, very, close to Uncle Sam's place and he doesn't appreciate that kind of interference and if there is even a shred of evidence that suggests that the Kremlin is behind the attack, well you just walked into some serious mess.

The Kremlin? These are all right-wing military regimes, that would be an odd alliance.
The British would try to sell this war as a WW2 analogue (democracy(ies) vs. fascist dicatorships) [yes, I know that the dictatorial Soviet Union was in WW2! :p]
The Hispanic side would try to sell this war/these wars as imperialist colonizers vs. victims of colonization.
 
That is why I thought Belize would be doable if Britain is busy elsewhere. Having a large colony on the coast there was resented.


The Guatemalans were in bad odor at the time as well. I think they were more concerned with Nicaragua a the time than Belize.
 
Yeah, I forgot about Gibraltar being in Europe thus being under NATO theoretical protection (Spain joining NATO would be butterflied away of course). It's harder but... still, the Spaniards could think NATO wouldn't meddle.

There is nothing theoretical involved here. Gibraltar is a NATO base, and the NATO treaty is explicit about anything hapenning north of the Tropic of Cancer. Not to mention the international reaction to bombing civilians (the only accessable bit that isnt civilian is the dockyard and the airstrip, and they are both VERY close to civilan areas)
 
The Kremlin? These are all right-wing military regimes, that would be an odd alliance.
The British would try to sell this war as a WW2 analogue (democracy(ies) vs. fascist dicatorships) [yes, I know that the dictatorial Soviet Union was in WW2! :p]
The Hispanic side would try to sell this war/these wars as imperialist colonizers vs. victims of colonization.

Regardless, America would not like such shenanigans going on in its hemisphere.
 
Regardless, America would not like such shenanigans going on in its hemisphere.
Hmm... You may be right but I'm not so sure the US really cares that much about Central American wars to automatically intervene in every war that starts. The hardest thing about Guatemala attacking Belize is that - albeit freshly independent - Belize is already a widely recognized state with full UN membership. I doubt that only the British would try to protect their independence. That's why I thought it might have worked better in 1981.

There is nothing theoretical involved here. Gibraltar is a NATO base, and the NATO treaty is explicit about anything hapenning north of the Tropic of Cancer. Not to mention the international reaction to bombing civilians (the only accessable bit that isnt civilian is the dockyard and the airstrip, and they are both VERY close to civilan areas)
Alright. I was mostly counting on the domino effect of one batshit-crazy military government encouraging other batshit-crazy military governments. I see that the Spanish Francoists may need even more levels of sucidal desperation than the Argentine junta. It'd take a leap of faith that NATO wouldn't intervene with anything more than just logistics.
 
Besides you are getting very, very, close to Uncle Sam's place and he doesn't appreciate that kind of interference and if there is even a shred of evidence that suggests that the Kremlin is behind the attack, well you just walked into some serious mess.

You might even see the Kremlin support the UK in such a conflict. ISTR during prior saber rattling by the Guatemalans the USSR sent a war ship to the area to deterr the Guatemalans.

I don't see the Guatemalans being able to force the UK back into the sea so the bulk of the RN won't be required. The Guatemalan air force IIRC consisted of a handful of A37's and some light COIN and transport aircraft.
 
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