jolo said:
I'm not talking about some farms around some outposts. I'm talking about giving away large chunks of land for nearly nothing to masses of people. Not really a British specialty (they'd probably prefer giving it to a few landlords, given a choice). Going by numbers, I looked it up: In 1790, the US had 3.9 million people - after about 2 centuries of British colonization! Only then did the US grow at the astonishing rate of about 3%/year until the civil war.
Colonisation was slow to take off because natives had to be cleared out, colonies founded, routes established, crop suitable and markets gauged and so on.
Between 1700 and 1790 the population of the "US" increased from 700,000 to 3,900,000.
That my friend is a large increase especially given the war and corresponding immigration drop off or the fact immigration was more difficult in the age of sail, what is more we have an example of Canada to use.
In 1700 to 1800 they roughly doubled to 260,000 in the next century they rose to 5,300,000 that is roughly increasing 20 fold.
Given a similar increase in the US we have a US population of 100,000,000 by 1900 (actually above what the US achieved in OTL).
So your assumption that British administration would retard growth by a ridiculous amount is, well, ridiculous.
Lets look at Australia, another British colony.
In 1800 the population was 5,000 to 3,500,000 in 1900 which is about a 750 times increase, again not bad (of course starting a colony is atypical which is why it is silly to look at the early time periods especially of a nations first settlement colonies, something to keep in mind for the future perhaps).
So again this idea that the British would substantial retard growth is unfounded, on top of the fact that you haven't accounted for why the immigrants will go other than the "US" or why the people in the "US" will stop having children.
I think the evidence is pretty obviously not as nice as you would like it to be.
No I am quite happy the evidence confirms my position, I know this because I started with the evidence and developed a position and not the other way around which as I'm sure you can appreciate leads to embarrassing attempts to defend the indefensible.
With Britain, I see old officers of the nobility getting big chunks of mainly woodland or grassland for their achievements. Only very little conversion to Farmland, as hunting, horseriding and so on is much more fun on undeveloped land. Some people can pay the money to be allowed to farm on the land, or to mine ressources from it. A few railways to get the ressources to the harbors. And that's about it. I don't see how they'd ever achieve sustained growth of 3%/year in population.
Note Canada, Australia and New Zealand all of which were able to grow nicely given far less favourable circumstances.
Hell look at Britain itself or Ireland both of which were able to grow at rather good rates at certain periods during the 1800's.
Ignoring emigration (i.e. imagining the people stayed in the UK and growth remain as historical) then Britain increased its population by a factor of 7 from 1800-1900.
Even if the US only managed the same rate they would pass your 30 million mark before 19000, that means they would need negative growth for the 20th century for you to be right and this is ignoring immigration they would receive.
The evidence just doesn't support your position, there is little point trying to dance around that fact.
They'd quickly have become strong enough with all the land in favorable climate conditions, with all the ressources, and so on.
And they do better than OTL how, for the same reason the international migration systems shuts down and Americans gain a sudden aversion to procreation I assume?
Britain can and will stop the Russians expanded their position on the pacific coast even if the Russians for some reason put more than a token effort into expanding their position.
There were masses of people coming from China shortly after it was settled by the Americans. Many as guestworkers though. If there had just been a small chinese, japanese, korean or so colony before those settlers arrive, but after the land was well known (pretty tempting for a government trying to show off some successes), we might easily get an Asian dominated California.
China is a basket case for the 19th century, they aren't colonising squat and Japan is an insular nation for a good portion and then trying to rapidly modernise without annoying anybody for the rest.
Even Mexico could prevent these powers encroaching on the West coast, if the West coast wasn't already in British hands or an Anglo Republic.
I simply find it amazing that the British do starling worse in this timeline whilst everybody else gets a boost for some unknown reason.
It almost seems that everything is rigged to got a certain outcome.
How much? How quickly? What if their population grows much faster than that of North America?
Well you have to increase the Mexican birth-rate and government stability dramatically for them to be able to hold onto their northern territories and there is no reason to assume that this happens.
As for the North American population growth, we have vastly different opinions on that.
About 100 Million was what the US had at that time. I doubt the British would have had half as many. And I doubt those would have been nearly as industrialized. Furthermore, there appears to be increased likelyhood for large wars the longer none has happened. So what effects come from that in the meantime, especially concerning growth of the Empire in other places?
Yes we know you think this "US" would only have 30 million, I have outlined in painfully clear detail why this is a silly idea.
Of course the entire population idea is just a means to this end, which is Germany beating Britain in WW1 because the US is part of eth Empire.
You just haven’t justified that position and every attempt to do so has required contortions to try and enable it.
As for the growth of the Empire in other places, Britain will only benefit from having more resources available, North America won't be a resource sink because Mexico and the natives are easy to push around.