I will say Long Island is more likely to be kept than New York in general.
However, Long Island becomes the new"WE NEED TO TAKE THIS ASAP!!!!" region, perhaps even outpacing New Orleans, which will lead to all kinds of fun.
EDIT: If you want a good Hong Kong analogue, Savannah would be a good place. England actually did retake most of Georgia, the local Native American nations were extremely powerful (revolutionary war figure Elijah Clarke actually tried to march a group across the Oconee river to form a new nation because he was pissed Georgia was too nervous to try to fight some of the Native American nations and got CLAPPED) with one of the closest being Alexander McGillvary's Muscogee empire which was arguably the closest Eastern US Native Americans got to "pulling a Meiji." Have Britain take Savannah, ally with the Muscogee and Cherokee, and end up in charge of Florida, and you could have a recipe for a British mestizo deep south, though slavery will eventually become an important issue in these areas as it was OTL.