The British back the Russians in San Stefano

As the titles says.

It is known that the Marquess of Salisbury, British Foreign Secretary, said that he "backed the wrong horse" in supporting Austria instead of Russia. If the British accept San Stefano would the Germans still try to counter Russian expansion in the Balkans? Would Germany and Austria have the diplomatic power to do something about it? The league of the three emperors would continue to exist? Would this mean a future Anglo-Russian alliance?
 
I dont know what Salisbury said later but i dont think the british wanted a russian puppet Great Bulgaria so close to the Straits.

Its another thing that Austria would have been better off with this: Great Bulgaria means small Serbia and less problems on that regard. And i dont think a great Bulgaria would stay a russian puppet for too long. All in all this would solve the eastern question much sooner and at the cost of much less blood.
 
I dont know what Salisbury said later but i dont think the british wanted a russian puppet Great Bulgaria so close to the Straits.

Its another thing that Austria would have been better off with this: Great Bulgaria means small Serbia and less problems on that regard. And i dont think a great Bulgaria would stay a russian puppet for too long. All in all this would solve the eastern question much sooner and at the cost of much less blood.


As you say Bulgaria was anti-Russian, there was no reason to fear them - Great Bulgaria will have an 'independent' diplomacy but it isn't strong enough to occupy the straits by itself.

I don't know if it would be the bloodless solution to the eastern question. Serbia and Romania would feel betrayed but I still think that will orbit the Russians simply because of lack of a better option. Bosnia and Albania will get independent and it will be hard to stop them to get grabbed by Austria, Italy or Russian-backed Serbia. Thus, San Stefano is probably not THE solution for the Eastern Question, a beginning maybe...
 
That would be a sudden and massive break with decades of previous British policy. Perhaps not enough to make Russia immediately trust Britain again, but definitely enough to cause an earlier alliance between the two, and an earlier and deeper rift in the League of the Three Emperors. Though with such a massive change there's no telling what might happen, maybe Germany will actually want to get closer to Britain and Russia, or at least maintain a friendly neutrality.

Great Bulgaria will not necessarily be anti-Russian, on the contrary. OTL's anti-Russian course in the 1880s and 1890s was chiefly influenced by the ruler and some of the political elites. The people were vaguely pro-Russian and it will not be hard for Russia to keep Bulgaria friendly (if not exactly a puppet state) indefinitely.

Bosnia-Herzegovina will become an autonomous tributary of the Ottoman Empire. If the Russians get to decide about it, they will probably install a junior branch of the Montenegrin dynasty. But Austrian protests might force them to make a compromise choice, such as the alternate Serbian Karadjordjevic dynasty - or a new, more local face.

As for Serbia, at this point in time it's ruled by a rabidly Austrophile and anti-Russian monarch; but his orientation is something pretty much no one else agrees with. With his popularity rapidly declining to the single digits and Serbia surrounded by Russian clients and friends on two sides, there might be an earlier dynastic change, or an earlier (pro-Russian) regency for the Prince's underage son.

Either way Russia is likely to end up having most of the Balkans under its influence.
 
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