The Braganzas flee to Brazil in 1762?

[Vinization]

Spain invaded Portugal three times in 1762 as a part of the Seven Years' War, but their attempts to conquer their smaller neighbor failed miserably thanks to the scorched earth and guerrilla tactics adopted by the Portuguese. What if the invaders were able to protect their supply lines more effectively, or the Portuguese decided to engage them in a pitched battle - and losing it, of course - instead of retreating into the mountains and countryside, so that Spanish troops are within striking distance of Lisbon by the end of the year?

Would the royal family and the court flee to Brazil, and if so, how different would their flight be from the OTL one, which happened in 1808? Could a Spanish victory in the so-called Fantastic War (what a name...) affect the rest of the Seven Years' War?

@Lusitania @Viriato @RedAquilla @Prince di Corsica @ByzantineCaesar @Kaiser of Brazil

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Spain also invaded Portugal a century early, circa 1663; debatably, the Braganza dynasty was only saved due to the intervention of the English. (This is one of the potential changes to history discussed here.)

 

[ByzantineCaesar]

Fleeing to Brazil was always the backup plan, so if Lisbon is on the eve of falling and diplomacy fails, there is no reason to think they would stay.

 

[galik]

Spain invaded Portugal three times in 1762 as a part of the Seven Years' War, but their attempts to conquer their smaller neighbor failed miserably thanks to the scorched earth and guerrilla tactics adopted by the Portuguese. What if the invaders were able to protect their supply lines more effectively, or the Portuguese decided to engage them in a pitched battle - and losing it, of course - instead of retreating into the mountains and countryside, so that Spanish troops are within striking distance of Lisbon by the end of the year?

Make the country even more corrupt regarding the military and buff the Spanish and probably the Royal Family will move and make Portugal proper a British Protectorate like OTL Napoleon age

 

[Vinization]

Assuming the Seven Years' War ends on schedule, will Pombal & co return to Portugal once hostilities die down, or will they stay in Brazil until Lisbon forces them to leave, like what happened with João VI?

 

[unprincipled peter]

I think the Spanish got held up by raging rivers, as well, which diverted them from Lisbon. And they completed mucked up the supply chain, which is why the scorched earth policy worked so well.

But, rather than get bogged down in how Spain wins, if we simply hand wavium make things go better (which is not all that impossible), forcing the court to flee....

Would the Portuguese be prepared? OTL, the notion of moving was brought up during the War of Oranges (1801), when Spain was commanded by France to fully invade, but Spain did only the minimum. So, when things looked dire in 1807, they had been making plans, and were able to jump onto the ships and sail away. In 1762, they're still reeling from a massive earthquake several years earlier. Bottom line here is that the successful transition to Brazil may not go as well. Can't simply assume Brazil gets such a massive jump start.

Effect on 7YW: Spain, having done so well in Portugal, may not be persuaded to quit the war (OTL, they wanted to fight on). Except for Portugal (in TTL), the war was lost everywhere else. France was desperate to get out. Spain was losing badly in the colonies. Britain may just go to town and keep on taking Spanish possessions til Spain cries uncle. I have yet to hear what Spain's endgame was, OTL. They probably didn't think they would lose so badly in the colonies. Maybe they hoped they could get Britain to quit with a mild victory/territorial gain (how were they to predict Britain would go easy in the peace terms, OTL?). I'd guess here they eventually lose an additional colony (Philipines? Cuba?) and be forced to give up Portugal. At best, they end up as OTL, with Portugal being traded for the additional colonies lost. OR,the possibility exists that tropical diseases bog down Britain, pushing Britain to invade Spanish mainland. Britain forced an end to the war at a high point. Here, they may be forced to stay in longer, and things could start to slide south.

It's hard to say what the court would do post Portuguese restoration. I'm inclined to think they head back to the mother country.

 

[Vinization]

I think the Spanish got held up by raging rivers, as well, which diverted them from Lisbon. And they completed mucked up the supply chain, which is why the scorched earth policy worked so well.

But, rather than get bogged down in how Spain wins, if we simply hand wavium make things go better (which is not all that impossible), forcing the court to flee....

Would the Portuguese be prepared? OTL, the notion of moving was brought up during the War of Oranges (1801), when Spain was commanded by France to fully invade, but Spain did only the minimum. So, when things looked dire in 1807, they had been making plans, and were able to jump onto the ships and sail away. In 1762, they're still reeling from a massive earthquake several years earlier. Bottom line here is that the successful transition to Brazil may not go as well. Can't simply assume Brazil gets such a massive jump start.

Effect on 7YW: Spain, having done so well in Portugal, may not be persuaded to quit the war (OTL, they wanted to fight on). Except for Portugal (in TTL), the war was lost everywhere else. France was desperate to get out. Spain was losing badly in the colonies. Britain may just go to town and keep on taking Spanish possessions til Spain cries uncle. I have yet to hear what Spain's endgame was, OTL. They probably didn't think they would lose so badly in the colonies. Maybe they hoped they could get Britain to quit with a mild victory/territorial gain (how were they to predict Britain would go easy in the peace terms, OTL?). I'd guess here they eventually lose an additional colony (Philipines? Cuba?) and be forced to give up Portugal. At best, they end up as OTL, with Portugal being traded for the additional colonies lost. OR,the possibility exists that tropical diseases bog down Britain, pushing Britain to invade Spanish mainland. Britain forced an end to the war at a high point. Here, they may be forced to stay in longer, and things could start to slide south.

It's hard to say what the court would do post Portuguese restoration. I'm inclined to think they head back to the mother country.

That's one of the biggest variables, I think - Lisbon is still recovering from the earthquake, and the Spaniards are bound to damage it even further if they occupy it. I can see Pombal and the court staying in Brazil until the capital is fully repaired, which will take at least a few years.

As for the Braganzas escaping back then, I'm sure they could hurriedly scrape together a fleet that could cross the Atlantic with British support.

 

[Vinization]

@Lusitania @Kaiser of Brazil

 

[Vinization]

One last thing (unless I get another idea or question): could the Brazilian capital stay in Salvador for good as a result of this WI? The transfer to Rio de Janeiro only happened in 1763, plus, I doubt the city had the necessary infeastructure to house the Portuguese court at that time. Even IOTL, in 1808, they had to effectively steal homes from local residents to house all the nobles and bureaucrats from Lisbon.

 

[Vinization]

Here I go again.

Brazil will probably get at least some of the improvements it got IOTL when the not-yet-John VI set up shop in Rio de Janeiro - new institutions, the opening of the ports to foreign vessels, increased centralization, etc. Once the Portuguese court returns to Lisbon, is there a risk these reforms could be rolled back, particularly the ones regarding trade regulations? Because if so, I can't see that going well with (most of) the Brazilian elites at all.

 

[Brasiliano]

Here I go again.

Brazil will probably get at least some of the improvements it got IOTL when the not-yet-John VI set up shop in Rio de Janeiro - new institutions, the opening of the ports to foreign vessels, increased centralization, etc. Once the Portuguese court returns to Lisbon, is there a risk these reforms could be rolled back, particularly the ones regarding trade regulations? Because if so, I can't see that going well with (most of) the Brazilian elites at all.

hmmm I think it's difficult for these changes to be reversed without an analogue to the liberal revolution and I personally think that the portuguese goverment would be too busy recovering from the invasion for its elites to want to subjugate Brazil again

 

[Taunay]

hmmm I think it's difficult for these changes to be reversed without an analogue to the liberal revolution and I personally think that the portuguese goverment would be too busy recovering from the invasion for its elites to want to subjugate Brazil again

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