The Bounced Check: Emperor Wilhelm II turns the other cheek

As we all know, when Austria-Hungary asked for German aid against the possibility of Russian intervention if they declared war on Serbia, what would be the implications of a war without Germany, and how would the outcome affect either party? Most importantly, who would win between the Russian Empire and Austria-Hungary?
 
I'm not convinced this doesn't verge on ASB territory, given the nature of the alliances at this point--although given the volatility of Wilhelm II, it can't be discounted out of hand, no matter how remote the possibility.

Thus, setting aside the question of likelihood for the sake of playing the game, it seems to me this conflict would be a tragic comedy of errors, given the relative ineptitude of the military "organizations" (using the term extremely loosely) of both sides. Battles would be "won" by whichever side managed to avoid more egregious blunders than the other, but for the most part, it would be a chronicle of screw-ups, thick-headedness, and downright incompetence on both sides.

It would come down to this: which collapses first? Would it be the Russian side with its corruption-riddled supply lines and inadequate manufacturing infrastructure, or the A-H side with its polyglot ranks and strong probabilities of orders misinterpreted / misunderstood? I'm guessing after about eighteen months of both sides suffering significant reverses, a draw would have been declared out of sheer exhaustion. It would have been so much sound and fury accomplishing zero, except the acceleration of a day of reckoning for both rather rickety empires. Probably the outcome is a status quo antebellum peace for the big boys with Serbia under the thumbs of both powers: A-H as a form of revenge for regicide; Russia to make sure the locals don't do anything quite that stupid any time soon.
 
As we all know, when Austria-Hungary asked for German aid against the possibility of Russian intervention if they declared war on Serbia, what would be the implications of a war without Germany, and how would the outcome affect either party? Most importantly, who would win between the Russian Empire and Austria-Hungary?

It is not in Serbia, just like everyone to war. German Ambassador to Russia handed by mistake Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs of two copies of notes of a declaration of war. The first in case you do not accept the Russian Emperor of Germany - the war, the second in the case will - is still a war.
 
Russia would probably defeat Austria-Hungary - look at the OTL initial fighting in Galicia before the Germans came to the aid of their ally. Without German aid, Austria-Hungary 'wins' the race to see who collapses first.

Great thread title, BTW :)
 
As we all know, when Austria-Hungary asked for German aid against the possibility of Russian intervention if they declared war on Serbia, what would be the implications of a war without Germany, and how would the outcome affect either party? Most importantly, who would win between the Russian Empire and Austria-Hungary?

I don't think the war happens at all. From the reading I've done, Germany wanted a war with Russia and pushed A-H to take a hard line with Serbia. If Germany didn't want a war, then A-H takes a softer line with Serbia, and Serbia gives in to the lesser demands.
 
Yes, many leading men in A-H were against a war - Conrad von Hötzendorff mostly insisted on it.

If A-H went alone against Russia and Serbia, they'd lose pretty fast, I think. Even IOTL the Russians steamrolled Galicia pretty fast. Also don't forget the informations the Russians had, thanks to the Oberst Redl affair.

And if Germany wouldn't support A-H, they'd be completely without any ally. Losing Russia as an ally was bad, not winning Britain instead also was bad, but losing A-H too would be worst. It'd leave Germany in a not-so-splendid isolation.
 
IIRC during the crisis leading up to the war Wilhelm II actually instructed his ambassador in Vienna to stop counselling the Austrians to be restrained but back them to the hilt on the theory that if there was going to be fighting then better do it as soon as possible. If you want to get the Germans to refuse to back the Austrians or at least not give them an open-ended guarantee then you need to either change Wilhelm's opinions or go back further and change the whole set-up.
 
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