The Bohemian Revolution - A Sidestepped Thirty Year's War

Very interesting insight
Those are very good ideas and with Bohemia and ottomans sharing the same enemy(Austria) they could work so they could destroy the long term powers of them...that is a massive opportunity and butterfly itself.
 
Very interesting insight. ;)

OTOH, they could be reasonably successful: the Hapsburg forces and army of the Catholic League were at that time relatively small, the tactical advantages of the Western armies still were an issue of the future and Montecuccoli was just a boy so there would be a reasonably good chance if not of a smashing victory than at least in causing a lot of damage (and doing a lot of looting) which in a precarious pre-White Mountain situation could be enough to change the tide and force Ferdinand to acknowledge the loss of Bohemia.

Well, this still leaves 2 big issues:

1. Keeping Spanish Road open. Spanish troops still could march across Alsace (see the map). The problem was not in Germany but in Savoy and France: the Treaty of Lyon (January 17, 1601) forced the Spanish Road to be reduced to a narrow valley and a bridge over the Rhône. This loss of territory made Spanish passage on the road dependent on the approval of France (which it refused in 1601 - 1602). "In 1609, Savoy expelled Spanish garrisons, followed by an alliance with France against Spain in 1610 and a dynastic war over possession of Montferrat (1613–1617), settled by the Peace of Asti. Savoy allowed a Spanish-Italian army to pass through the Spanish Road in 1620 but its anti-Spanish Treaty in 1622 ended Spanish travel on the Spanish Road forever." (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Road#Use ) As I understand, the troops still could march through the mountain passes of Valteline/Graubunden and then to Hapsburg-held Tyrol (in OTL conflict over control of this area lasted from 1618 till 1639).

2. An issue of the Protestant vs. Catholic electors (especially when one of the Protestant electors holds 2 voting positions). This is serious but probably can be negotiated, even with the support of at least some Protestant princes (and electors) who are not very fond of Frederic and the whole Bohemian business (Saxony almost definitely, Brandenburg - possibly if there is a suitable carrot): prior to Ferdinand starting pushing them around, they are seemingly happy with the status quo. Say, something along the OTL lines: Frederic retains electoral status as King of Bohemia but his original electoral position is transferred to Bavaria (as did happen). The balance is retained, everybody is happy (for a while).

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The issue there is that such an acknowledgement, if Austria is under serious threat from the Turks, is likely to be tied with demands for greater Imperial contributions to the defense of the frontier (A very legally justifiable arguement, given the obligation of the HRE to defend the realm and the fact that giving up the crown lands of Bohemia and Moravia would deeply cut into his the Emperor's personal resources.) however, Ottoman aid is also likely going to have strings attached; at least promises that the states they supported don't actively oppose them. This leaves Prague with two mutually exclusive obligations unless they can break the assumption of Habsburg Imperial hegemony... a position Vienna and Madrid are likely to fight to the bloody end for.

The Protestant Princes are going to need to cram through Imperial reform, either in the structure/obligations of the Diet or in electoral structure so, at least in theory, a Protestant Emperor is possible (So transferring yet another vote to a Catholic state closely tied to the Habsburgs, even if it's not ecclesiastical, is hardly a win for them)
 
To give Frederick V some leverage maybe when Emperor Ferdinand is returning from his coronation in Frankfurt to Vienna he is unable to evade Transylvanian marauders. His capture and being handed over to Frederick could result in a negotiated settlement.
 
Given all the Germans that will live from this, I think I remember seeing a post about the East Coast of the New World now being fill with Germans.

Could this be the case?
 
To give Frederick V some leverage maybe when Emperor Ferdinand is returning from his coronation in Frankfurt to Vienna he is unable to evade Transylvanian marauders. His capture and being handed over to Frederick could result in a negotiated settlement.

That implies Friedrich being willing to do such a thing. OTL he got crowned king of Bohemia in the hopes of the electors negating a Habsburg (re: Catholic) emperor. What does he do when the voting comes around? Votes for a Habsburg. Now, whether I'm just prejudiced against Fritz, or he really just was naive/stupid, I'm not sure. Ergo, IDK if it would do any good to hand Ferdinand off to him. He'd probably send him on his way and have the kidnappers arrested, if he's as stupid as some make out. Or, if he's just naive, he'd get Ferdinand to agree to the status quo - Friedrich as king of Bohemia and Ferdinand as emperor - which Ferdinand would then denounce as soon as he returns to Vienna (making deals with Protestant heretics? Under duress? That's not legally binding, at all in the opinion of the Habsburgs, I'd imagine)
 
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