The Black Death 200 years earlier

Hnau

Banned
On a show on Discovery Channel, they mistakenly reported that the Black Death occurred in the 12th century. How'd they get that wrong? Everyone knows the Black Death first hit Europe in 1348.

So what if the Black Death hit Asia, then Europe and the Middle East 200 years earlier? The bubonic plague starts spreading around the Mediterranean just as the Second Crusade begins. Any ideas?
 
1127, Jin forces ransacked Kaifeng, capital of the Northern Song Dynasty, capturing both Emperor Qinzong, and his father, Emperor Huizong, who had abdicated in panic in the face of Jin forces. Following the fall of Kaifeng, Song forces under the leadership of the succeeding Southern Song Dynasty continued to fight for over a decade with Jin forces, eventually signing the Treaty of Shaoxing in 1141, calling for the cessation of all Song land north of the Huai River to the Jin and the execution of Song General Yue Fei in return for peace.

The migration south


After taking over Northern China, the Jin Dynasty became increasingly Sinicized. About three million people, half of them Jurchens, migrated south into northern China over two decades,

This would change the Sinicization of the Jurchens, as most deaths in China took place in the south.

IIRC some where between 30~40% of the Scandinavians died in the plague, one of the highest rates in Europe. [reason Scandinavians are less likely to get HIV]
If this remains the same ITTL, it could have a major impact on the eventual borders between Norway-Sweden-Finnland.

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On a show on Discovery Channel, they mistakenly reported that the Black Death occurred in the 12th century. How'd they get that wrong? Everyone knows the Black Death first hit Europe in 1348.

So what if the Black Death hit Asia, then Europe and the Middle East 200 years earlier? The bubonic plague starts spreading around the Mediterranean just as the Second Crusade begins. Any ideas?

I always thought that the high mortality rate in Europe from the Black Death corrected huge population growth in that continent over the preceding half-century or century. People were already weakened by a series of famines that decimated populations. Also, in general, grain yields in northern Europe were much less than they are today (no Monsanto or Dow Chemical to thank.) So yes, an epidemic would likely happen anyway given the transportation of the disease from China and the East, but perhaps the mortality rate would not have been so steep if the Europeans could actually feed themselves and maintain bodily strength.

Living in squalor didn't help either. But I wonder whether the infestation of the black rat was as important than a half-starved population.
 

Hnau

Banned
Yeah, I would agree the Black Death would be less horrific and probably spread slower due to Europe being able to feed itself. Was the black rat in Europe at the time?
 
Yeah, I would agree the Black Death would be less horrific and probably spread slower due to Europe being able to feed itself. Was the black rat in Europe at the time?

A book, The Great Mortality, by John Kelly, pp 67-68[1] suggests that the black rat was present in Europe from the early Roman Empire, and more certainly from the Plague of Justinian. It may be that the black rat population did not increase notably until a few centuries preceding the Black Death, but according to Kelly there were some black rats within Europe from an early period.

Kelly also squarely lays partial blame for the Black Death on the deplorable hygeine of the Medieval city, but that does not necessarily account for the prominence of the disease in rural areas given the living standard differences between the two areas.

I think a good thread would be "WI some 14th century Europeans went on a rat cull rather than blame the Black Death on miasma theory or divine intervention". You'd think that farmers would kill off the rats given that they were out for grain, but city dwellers might not have thought to do so or had no need to kill the rats given the relative lack of grain production in these areas.


[1]http://books.google.com/books?id=KB...sKXHBQ&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=4
 
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