The Best-Case Scenarios for CP and the Axis...?

Enough of those Allied-wanks, now let's discuss what would be the best possible outcomes for Central (German Empire, Austria-Hungary, Ottoman Empire) and Axis (Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy, Imperial Japan) powers...
Survival into present day? Some territorial acquisitions? Stalemate, or maybe partial victory, in WWI/WWII?

PS: use the PODs no earlier than 1914 and 1939, respectively...
 
For the CP Berlin put some sense on Vienna about the negotiation with Italy, so they don't drag the talk and made immediatly some good concession and from the other parts Giolitti stay prime minister so the Kingdom of Italy stay neutral free a lot of A-H troops and keep a line of commerce open so the CP are not totally strangleg by the english blockade. At the end probably the CP (or better Germany) lose the colonies but acquire the treaty of B-L territory. The Ottoman empire get some russian territory and lose other and face a lot of internal troubles but is not carved up as OTL.
 
For the Axis kill Hitler (there were enough attempts OTL) and have him succeeded by someone who isn't as genocidal (keeping antisemitism at internationally 'tolerable' levels) and hell-bent on starting a war, preferably before the annexation of rump Czechia (given how it was nearly surrounded by Germany it would be at least 'finlandized' sooner or later anyways) to keep the reputation of the german government a bit better, thus maybe enabling more negotiated deals (Danzig, maybe even something about West Prussia)
 
CPs: I always thought they'd have done better if they had attacked in the East and defended in the west. Depending on whether France would accept it and Italy would join the CPs or not, they'd at least rule eastern Europe. (Although the Allies might still grab the German colonies.) Whether A-H and the Ottoman Empire would last for long, is a very different question.

Axis: Speer claimed that Germany could've had more soldiers and arms if the nazis hadn't been so stubbornly against women working in factories, but you may take this with a grain of salt. I also used to think that it'd help if the Germans attacked Russia six weeks earlier (but that may still not be enough). Also, if the nazis attacked Britain in the Med (Malta, Cyprus, Egypt), although an attack on Russia in 1942 will be way harder, because the Red Army recovered somewhat from Stalin's idiotic purges, and their fortifications would be even stronger - wkwillis used to propose this. (I also wonder whether there'd be a kind of feminist movement in postwar-Nazi Germany, with so many women having experience in the workforce. However, I have absolutely no idea how this might turn out.)
 
The best-case scenario for the Axis involves dismembering the Axis in part; Italy has to be taken out for the Axis to see real successes in the long term IMO.
 
The Axis did well as long as they were fighting opponents one at a time and defeating them in detail. But as the war both expanded and lasted longer, they lost their advantage in surprise, concentration of force, and advance preparation (from being the first to rearm).

The Axis simply cannot win against their opponents after 1941. They might get lucky enough for a stalemate and keep some conquests, but that's all.

For the Axis to win, they must keep the war limited. Unfortunately, Britain is an island and not easily invaded. The failure of Britain to make peace after the fall of France destroyed Hitler's strategy (as much as he had one). The longer the stalemate lasts, the greater the likelihood that both the USSR and USA will get involved, and both are now rearming rapidly. In any event, Germany's relative power will decrease towards these countries. That's why Hitler choose to roll the dice and fight both the USSR and USA now when they were relatively still weak.

From a purely military point of view, the best move Hitler could have done was accept the Soviet Union's offer to join the Tripartite Pact and concentrate completely on defeating Britain in the Mediterranean. Then offer Britain a lenient peace. Once Britain is out of the war, then invade the Soviet Union who will have no allies.

Of course, Hitler didn't have the hindsight we do. He really thought the Soviets would collapse in 6 months, and that with no USSR that Britain would make peace since there would no one who could help them on the continent. He had no way of knowing that he was commiting himself to a huge war from 1942-1945 that would be beyond Germany's ability.
 
The Central Powers have a much easier task. They just need to avoid giving the US a casus belli, and better organize their economy to avoid the famine in the later years. The first is relatively easy. The second requires some far sighted people who can properly organize the economy to provide for enough food while keeping the right manpower to meet military and industrial needs, but it is still possible.

In which case, with the initial successes of the Spring 1918 offensive, with no hope of American relief, and sufficient food supplies, the Germans do well enough to either win the war or do very good in a negotiated peace. Everyone was too exhausted by 1918 to carry on much longer.
 
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