The Best Case for Germany in 1918
- Thread starter luakel
- Start date
Italy could serve the role in the West that it did in the East. Essentially, as a distraction from the main front.
While I agree, the German commanded-troops previously fighting Italy could now be sent elsewhere.
I don't think that could change so much for Germany. I actually think that militarily, the Central Powers wouldn't be able to do any better than they did IOTL. Their only hope is propaganda. the British and French were exhausted, too. They were superior in numbers and supply, too. But they were so for four years and still they never set foot on German ground and the Hochseeflotte is still more or less intact (not that it would be of any use now). So if the CP are able to knock Italy out, the Russian theatre looks worse for the Allies (maybe the communists accept Brest-Litovsk earlier, maybe the Germans propose less harsh peace terms...), or add a minor, unimportant, yet successfull battle of the remnants of the Hochseeflotte, coupled with a new call for peace from Karl in Austria, quickly responded by now more reluctant Americans, this may be enough for an armistice with equal terms for both sides.
All depends on the public opinion in the war-tired powers.
Negotiations with the CP as equals may be enough.
If Italy is knocked out of the war, might they be persuaded to change sides?
I'd like to throw out there that if Russia had troops in the South, might they have went for broke, and tried to take Constantinople? Maybe they realize that they can't hurt Germany, go on the defensive, and decide to take a chance at thier long term dream, and perhaps look better at the bargaining tables. Its a bit of a wank, but maybe they would get much more if they so much as threatened the Bosphorous.
Just a thought
I'd like to throw out there that if Russia had troops in the South, might they have went for broke, and tried to take Constantinople? Maybe they realize that they can't hurt Germany, go on the defensive, and decide to take a chance at thier long term dream, and perhaps look better at the bargaining tables. Its a bit of a wank, but maybe they would get much more if they so much as threatened the Bosphorous.
Just a thought
I don't think so: The Russians would have to go through occupied Romania, hostile Bulgaria and hostile Turkey, establishing an extremely long frontier.
Surely the resources from Russia will be shortlived? If the Duma/SR's retain control the war will continue; and if the Bolsheviks still seize power the entire is going to be engulfed in civil war.
So the US is not in the war directly in 1918?
OK, here's a LOT (line of thought):
Early 1918- Germany gets Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, sets up Ukraine as produce giant and moves troops to the Western Front
Mid 1918- CP offensive in France teeters but succeeds as outnumbered Allies are unable to plug key gaps in their lines. CP offensive in northern Italy brings Venice under siege
Late 1918- Paris falls in late September and French morale plummets. Germans raid supply depots and send much of it back home. Venice falls around the same time as Paris and Austrian units control Italy north of the Po and east of Milan.
Early 1919- French capital moved to Bordeaux as mutinies break out across the army. French government falls in March, Britain induced to come to peace table as cease-fire breaks out in early April. Italy follows soon after as Austrian/German units cross the Po and start pressing into the old Papal March.
Mid 1919- Treaty of Stockholm brings peace to Europe. France gives up the remainder of Lorraine, Franche-Comte, Morocco, Madagascar, Senegal, and their sphere of influence in China. Britain loses Ceylon, Nigeria, British Suriname, and Kenya along with a corridor connecting German East Africa to Kamerun. Austria-Hungary gains most of Venetia (except for Venice itself and a sliver of land to connect it to Italy by road and rail), Serbia, and Romania. Ottomans gain Egypt, Caucasian Mountains, Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, and all land in Russia south of the termini of the Volga and Don rivers. Luxembourg is a German province. Ukraine, Finland gain independence.
OK, here's a LOT (line of thought):
Early 1918- Germany gets Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, sets up Ukraine as produce giant and moves troops to the Western Front
Mid 1918- CP offensive in France teeters but succeeds as outnumbered Allies are unable to plug key gaps in their lines. CP offensive in northern Italy brings Venice under siege
Late 1918- Paris falls in late September and French morale plummets. Germans raid supply depots and send much of it back home. Venice falls around the same time as Paris and Austrian units control Italy north of the Po and east of Milan.
Early 1919- French capital moved to Bordeaux as mutinies break out across the army. French government falls in March, Britain induced to come to peace table as cease-fire breaks out in early April. Italy follows soon after as Austrian/German units cross the Po and start pressing into the old Papal March.
Mid 1919- Treaty of Stockholm brings peace to Europe. France gives up the remainder of Lorraine, Franche-Comte, Morocco, Madagascar, Senegal, and their sphere of influence in China. Britain loses Ceylon, Nigeria, British Suriname, and Kenya along with a corridor connecting German East Africa to Kamerun. Austria-Hungary gains most of Venetia (except for Venice itself and a sliver of land to connect it to Italy by road and rail), Serbia, and Romania. Ottomans gain Egypt, Caucasian Mountains, Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, and all land in Russia south of the termini of the Volga and Don rivers. Luxembourg is a German province. Ukraine, Finland gain independence.
David S Poepoe
Banned
Doubtful about the Treaty of Stockholm, at least the part of Austro-Hungary annexing Serbia. Unless AH's war goals have changed there is no way the Hungarians want additional Slavs in the Empire. Exactly why AH would annex any further problematic territory is questionable - to the highest degree.
Realistically think that the Germans may only get their former colonies returned to them, no additional territory.
Realistically think that the Germans may only get their former colonies returned to them, no additional territory.
I'm inclined to doubt even that... At most they'll get Togo and Kamerun back from the French, more likely they'll lose them all but be compensated.
BTW, does anyone else think a socialist revolution might be possible in a Germany that gets a compromise peace in 1918/19?
Max Sinister
Banned
The Social Democrats (not the Socialists / Communists, who never became more than a strong minority) had been growing. A victory in the war would probably rather benefit the right-wing parties, but in the long run, the SPD could still grow stronger.
That's the problem: The right-wingers in Germany (incl. people like Ludendorff) didn't want a compromise peace, but a "real victory" - German dominance on the continent, a big colonial empire, and the losers have to pay all the money Germany's spent for the war. Like a historian wrote: "The politician Ludendorff demanded a victory which the military Ludendorff couldn't deliver." Talk about shooting your own foot off...
That's the problem: The right-wingers in Germany (incl. people like Ludendorff) didn't want a compromise peace, but a "real victory" - German dominance on the continent, a big colonial empire, and the losers have to pay all the money Germany's spent for the war. Like a historian wrote: "The politician Ludendorff demanded a victory which the military Ludendorff couldn't deliver." Talk about shooting your own foot off...
I am not sure that Germany would benefit much from inflicting a defeat on Italy.
Unless it caused an Anglo-French loss of nerve it would bring little benefit, and Germany would go on to lose from lack of food and rubber in 1919.
If the Germans divert forces to Italy a series of small German defeats on the Western front looks likely, and this will discourage any Anglo-French loss of nerve.
The best hope for Germany is everything west and hope for butterflies.
Unless it caused an Anglo-French loss of nerve it would bring little benefit, and Germany would go on to lose from lack of food and rubber in 1919.
If the Germans divert forces to Italy a series of small German defeats on the Western front looks likely, and this will discourage any Anglo-French loss of nerve.
The best hope for Germany is everything west and hope for butterflies.
The big problem with any CP win is the winner will want to loser to carry the burden of debt for the war.
That's what the french did with the ToV and it is most likely what the CP will do if they can force a peace.
GB will probably tell the CP where to put it and retreat across the channel but france would be screwed and the CP would make them carry the debt burden.
As for the colonies they are gone until the next war. GB and japan won't give them back and any ceded to the CP by France and Italy will be conquered by the British and Japanese.
Essentially you have a reverse ToV and another war 20 or so years down the track.
For GB the problem could be that in the Great European war mark II the colonies might not be so willing to send ment to fight.
WWI left gaping holes in most Australian towns, this WWI would be even worse.
GB might have to go cap in hand to India for the troops to fight another war and the price of that would most likely be immediate dominion status. Bye bye the jewel in the crown.
There is one other problem for GB with any peace on even terms the HSF will remain a threat even if it doen't have the range.
That would change after the war, it would not surprise me if the HSF went for a policy of BC and fast CL and carriers and that would cause problems for the RN.
That's what the french did with the ToV and it is most likely what the CP will do if they can force a peace.
GB will probably tell the CP where to put it and retreat across the channel but france would be screwed and the CP would make them carry the debt burden.
As for the colonies they are gone until the next war. GB and japan won't give them back and any ceded to the CP by France and Italy will be conquered by the British and Japanese.
Essentially you have a reverse ToV and another war 20 or so years down the track.
For GB the problem could be that in the Great European war mark II the colonies might not be so willing to send ment to fight.
WWI left gaping holes in most Australian towns, this WWI would be even worse.
GB might have to go cap in hand to India for the troops to fight another war and the price of that would most likely be immediate dominion status. Bye bye the jewel in the crown.
There is one other problem for GB with any peace on even terms the HSF will remain a threat even if it doen't have the range.
That would change after the war, it would not surprise me if the HSF went for a policy of BC and fast CL and carriers and that would cause problems for the RN.
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True. But there is one big difference: OTL Germany lost. The armistice already required them to give up any favorable military position, so further resistance was impossible. With a POD after 1917, the CP could never achieve such a victory. All they could hope for is status quo. If we assume that they knock Italy out and get a peace in the east, this might be enough for the western powers not to sue for peace - they wouldn't. After all, Britain would always be secure.
But they might be willing to negotiate. Now if negotiations start among equals, noone would have to pay everything. Only the looser pays, hence Britain will never pay. The only chance for the CP to get paid is a full defeat of France AND the British expeditionary forces, which is not possible. So IMO, the question is whether the CP could get some victories to get the western powers to the negotiation table.
True: if they can FORCE a peace, which is impossible.
If France is defeated and Britain carries on, true. But I can't see this to happen. I think the only possibility is a negotiation, started by equally exhausted enemies, initiated by recent CP victories, due to which the war seems to last even longer for the western powers.
So my proposal for the best case for Germany:
At the begin of 1918 Germany gets peace treaties with Russia, Ukraine and Romania. Western powers totally overestimate the influx of supplies for the CP.
Then, after a successful counterstrike in Italy, the siege of Venice begins, the CP approach the river Po, as the Italian army, exhausted and frustrated by this surprisingly successfull attack, retreats. In Turin and Milan and other industrialized areas, communist uprisings start. The government responds sharply, quickly executing rioters. Then the Germans cross the Po, new troops start a mutiny and build up bolshevik-like councils.
(I don't know if a red uprising in Italy is realistic. Yet it doesn't need to be a full scale revolution, just enough to first force an armistice between Italy and the CP and second to scare the western powers of the Red Menace).
An assassination attempt by some mad communist/anarchist to some minor official in France increases fears of the bolshevik threat.
In May, the remnants of the Hochseeflotte get a minor victory in the North Sea, without any militaric value, but it is a great success for propaganda, war weariness in Britain suddenly roses.
Karl of Austria announces his wish for peace, the Americans are hesitating to come to europe, as it seems the Germans are gaining power and the war would last for years to come.
Germans and Austrians agree on terms for an armistice, the western powers, anxious of the reds and under pressure from America, agree.
The Germans retreat into Belgium, into a prepared fortified frontier, as a first condition, and Britain accepts some food supplies being delivered to Germany.
The congress of Amsterdam starts, when it ends in 1920, German, British and French troops are already fighting alongside each other in Russia against the Communist forces. Lorraine comes to France, Luxemburg to Germany. In Alsace a poll shows favour of staying German, yet some bordering regions are passed to France. Germany pays a little for Belgium and France, and grants trade privileges. The peaces in the East are revised, but be kept in favour of Germany. Germany looses its asian and pacific colonies and parts of Kamerun. The Turkish empire is partitioned between Germany, France and Britain.
Only a few years later, AH dissolves, Germany taking rfirst Germany and the Sudetenlands, then Bohemia and Moravia as well as Slovenia. France protests, Britain not that much.
I differ on two points:
- Alsace-Lorraine will stay German, but minor border adjustments with France would be possible
- Slovenia will not fully fall to the Germans
Certainly the POD would determine the severity of the pro-CP treaty, but if it's the American involvement in 1917 there are not likely to be severe debts to the Allies. Germany had the means to take Paris in early/mid 1918, and Italy could easily suffer mild Communist revolts in the northern areas that throw Rome out of the fight altogether (fear of Red revolution is what helped get Mussolini in place by 1922). Again, Luxembourg becomes German, Venetia becomes Austrian, Bulgaria gains western Thrace and seacoast of Romania (perhaps the latter becomes a large German colony?), France loses Franche-Comte and the rest of Lorraine, and Russia loses Ukraine (independent), Poland, Baltic States (Poland and Lithuania become German, Estonia and Latvia become a satellite), and Causacus territories(Ottomans). Serbia becomes an Austrian possession and the thrid crown of the AHSerbian empire. UK may continue the fight for a while, but if Italy is KOed and France on the ropes or forced to move capitals without US assistance, the CP is in a strong negotiating position. They will want a quick conclusion though because of their tenuous home situations, and AH/S will want a return to peacetime though the victory might stall their collapse.