The Berlin Blockade leads to World War III. Who wins?

Say, that, the Soviets attack the airlift planes and the USA declare war. Who wins: The USA and its allies or the Soviet Union and its allies?

 

Eventually, the USA. How long that takes is anyone’s guess.

 

Probably the USA, assuming public will holds out in the face of a protracted war with heavy losses. Given the unprovoked nature of Soviet actions described by the OP, I'm inclined to think that is much more likely then not.

 

are nukes used (by the US) and do the USSR fast track there nuclear bomb program (say have one ready to go before our timeline)

 

In such a scenario, at that time, it's nukes on Moscow Leningrad Gorky and probably vladivostok too for good measure. I'll assume the West withdraws most of the way to the Channel and lets the rot of internal nuclear destruction bring down the USSR. Nernburg Trials #2 for what high level prisoners the West can get from the remains of the Soviet Union.

 

and if Stalingrad wasn't so far gone, probably that too (and Murmansk would be nuked too)

 

The cockroaches.

 

Western Allies win the war Eastern Europe is completely destroyed though A bombs will be dropped everywhere I wonder if this changes the outcome of the Chinese Civil War

 

While the first Soviet atomic explosion was August, 1949, the Berlin Airlift was June, 1948-May, 1949. Therefore had WWIII started during the blockade/airlift it would have been before the USSR had a device, which was NOT a deployable weapon. It was at least 1-2 years before the Soviets had even one deployable weapon, and how many "silverplate" B-29 copies did they have then? The TU-95 first flew in 1952 and was not operational until 1956. The B-36 was in service by the time of the Berlin Airlift, and was fairly rapidly coming in to squadron service.

 

Wonder if Mao would turn on the Soviets once things got really pear shaped for Moscow?

 

Wouldn't Mao be much to busy with the ongoing Chinese Civil War. And if this happens during the beginning I don't see how the US isn't going to be sending Chiang (who is still on the mainland) massive amounts of aid because they are once again fighting a common enemy. As far as the US and the West is concerned Mao is just another member of the Soviet alliance and would want the Nationalists to press him to hopefully tie down as many soldiers as possible.

 

By 1948/1949 the B-36s were coming online and the U.S. was starting to enter the serial production phase of nuclear weapons, so unquestionably the United States. They can essentially destroy the Soviet logistics and industrial base, and then land troops to pick up the pieces in the aftermath to little cost to themselves.

 

There wasn't nearby enough nukes making things so bad in end of 1940's. Not even in early 1960's.

I think that Wallies win or then this is stalemate.

 

One further note, if the worse happened and the United States did use nuclear weapons, then the Soviets would release the hounds of chemical and biological warfare.
In regards to the latter this small paragraph is illuminating:

"Great Britain also began to experiment with anthrax for bioweapons on a small island off the coast of Scotland called Gruinard Island. They tested the widespread release of anthrax by releasing bombs containing the germ over the island, where 80 sheep had been placed. All of the sheep died from anthrax. One of the most important findings from this experiment was how long anthrax stays in the environment after a release. The island remained uninhabitable until 1986, when Great Britain decided to decontaminate it by killing all of the anthrax spores. After a year of soaking the island in a mixture of formaldehyde and seawater, the island was considered disinfected."

 

Mankind loses.

 

The US when it finally builds up a big enough stockpile of nukes and works out a deployment doctrine

 

How? In 1948 United States was only nuclear power and USSR was just finding out how to build such thing. And USA hadn't yet much of them, IIRC only just few dozens and early nukes weren't so effective as for example in 1980's. And there wasn't yet very advanced nuclear technology so only areas which would suffer about nuclear bombs are in Eastern Europe and even these would recover in couple decades. WW3 in end of 1940's would be mostly conventional and nukes not act big part in the war.

 

George Patton dies on December 21, 1945 in a car accident after leaving the victory celebration at the Kremlin.

 

The USA and UK also have jet fighters (Lockheed P-80 and Republic F-84 for the USA, Gloster Meteor and De Havilland Vampire for the UK), which gives them another edge. Yes the MiG 15 is just about on the table, but only in small quantities, and the North American F-86 Sabre is in the same boat, so those two might just cancel each other out.

Actually, London to Moscow is just about the same distance as Tinian to Hiroshima. So yeah, Nukes can definitely be dropped on Moscow. And Leningrad. And Sevastapol. And Vladivostok. And Stalingrad (if you fly from Cairo).

The war starts in 1949.

 

True, ok he has his accident outside the Kremlin December 21, 1949.