The Benghazi Headache

It would be great if you had some source on what the British stil had in the Nile Delta at this point - it would make the situation a whole lot clearer
I would be tempted to say they'd got as many as the Germans given the numbers they had for Brevity, but I've no idea if this is the case.

I think a lot depends on wether the Axis scare the RN out of the area and then stick around for really serious shore bombardment - this in 1941.
Not going to happen, this is the RN we're talking about remember, "three years to build a ship, three hundred to build a tradition", plus after Taranto and Matapan there isn't a whole lot of Axis ships still capable of sailing.

Have each plane give up some cargo in order to carry enough extra fuel to ensure it has enough to get back to base. This would require them to land in whatever make-shift runways Rommel's panzers had secured.
Given the capability of any side to land paratroopers where you want them to, I have my doubts of how effective they'd be even if the Germans were stupid enough to try it.

Well, it's not like they're useless - they did sink two Mississppi-class battleships (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_battleship_Kilkis) as well as the Soviet BB Marat
The Greek ones were pre-Dreadnoughts with exactly zero deck armour, while the Marat had 0.5-2 inches, which would have offered only limited protection, as indeed did the 3 inch deck of HMS Illustrious did (the damage could have been quite a bit worse), but against the Nelsons or KGVs I have my doubts.

- so i doubt Adm. Cunningham would like to sit around in Alex. if he keeps getting visits by them around once or twice a day. Especially since the RAF had little assets available at the time in that area IIRC.
Cyprus-Alexandria is ~490 km, too far for a Stuka to get there and back if they're carrying any bombs, so any attack costs you your whole bomber force too.
 
Was AGS really that impacted by Op. Merkur. Wasn't the fighting on the mainland one of the main reasons. That and the belief that the Soviets would transfer units north IIRC

As covered in another thread AGS was delayed from starting on time in OTL because of Operation Merkur (not rains.) Operation Barbarossa started and AGS still did not begin their attack until days later, because of rest and refitting.

In fact, rest and refitting was the main issue why the attack was delayed past the flooding of the rivers, which essentially ceased by June 10th.

So, there is a good chance that operation barbarossa starts sooner. Now, if the Germans actually do what is smart and employ a double envelopment of Russian forces in Ukraine in the initial assault, this is potentially game-changing with the right butterflies, because it avoids the whole Kiev situation.

However, on Jan 31st 1941 the plan for double envelopment of Russian forces in Ukraine was abandoned, I suppose because of plans to take care of Greece. So, the POD here probably does not put the Germans back into the best possible position in AGS, though it gives their invasion a few extra days (which, in actuality, can be squandered and actually make the Russian counterattack more devastating as the Axis are more stretched.)

How do you (and anyone else) envision the most likely British reaction to this (them loosing 5 an a half brigades in a matter of a couple fo weeks)

The British are forced to move their fleet from Alexandria to Syria (if the British then occupy it) or send them out of the Mediterranean. Then they scrape the cupboard clean to reinforce Egypt. The British would have to take forces from the Middle East, whoever they were going to send to Crete, and perhaps from British garrisons in places like Singapore and India, and send the men over to Egypt.

The Germans are just too stretched to press the advantage in 1941, unless as you theorize, all those JU52s are pressed into service in Africa (which is unlikely being that Germany is also invading Russia.) It isn't impossible that Rommel gets lucky, captures the right supplies, and makes it to the Suez. This in effect corners the British fleet in Syria (if it is taken) or essentially kicks the British out (sending them packing to malta and then Gibraltar).
 
I would be tempted to say they'd got as many as the Germans given the numbers they had for Brevity, but I've no idea if this is the case.

Yeah, me neither. Tiger convoy unloaded in Alexandria on the 12th. Brevity took place on the 15th. Wether or not any of the 200 tanks unloaded on the 12th were driven to the border I have no idea. Furthermore, IDK how many other tanks the British held in reserve. At the same time, we don't know how many more tanks Rommel had in his other sectors.

There's also the fact that Brevity took place in mid May, whilst our hypothetical fall of Tobruk takes place in mid April.


That's why I'm saying that it would be great if we got some source on actual numbers.


Given the capability of any side to land paratroopers where you want them to, I have my doubts of how effective they'd be even if the Germans were stupid enough to try it.

Just to make it clearer - it wouldn't be so much as landing paras outside of Alexandria against enemy resistance, but more something like transporting infantry via plane in order to support the panzers. But, again, this thing with the infantry is secondary, the main point is that the Ju-52s and other transport aircraft deliver fuel to get the panzers and their support groups to Alexandria, and, should they actually reach it, ferry in troops to try and help them take/surround the city.


The Greek ones were pre-Dreadnoughts with exactly zero deck armour, while the Marat had 0.5-2 inches, which would have offered only limited protection, as indeed did the 3 inch deck of HMS Illustrious did (the damage could have been quite a bit worse), but against the Nelsons or KGVs I have my doubts.

1000kg bombs can still do significant damage to the suprastructure without sinking the ship. Plus, it's not like the British would risk it and see how good their armor holds up - had they been so inclined, they would have acted differently during the Norwegian campaign.

but the whole point is mostly moot because...

Cyprus-Alexandria is ~490 km, too far for a Stuka to get there and back if they're carrying any bombs, so any attack costs you your whole bomber force too.

1. only the Ju-87D would have the range, and this model only got off the production lines in May 1941
2. if Rommel advances past the border and reaches Mersa Matruh, the LW can just as well stage their Stukas from there. Supplying them will be a bitch though

As covered in another thread AGS was delayed from starting on time in OTL because of Operation Merkur (not rains.) Operation Barbarossa started and AGS still did not begin their attack until days later, because of rest and refitting.


In fact, rest and refitting was the main issue why the attack was delayed past the flooding of the rivers, which essentially ceased by June 10th.

And I don't really see how this relates in any way to Op. Merkur. I read through the thread but didn't find any evidence as to why landing the paras on Crete increased rest and refit time for AGS.



The British are forced to move their fleet from Alexandria to Syria (if the British then occupy it) or send them out of the Mediterranean. Then they scrape the cupboard clean to reinforce Egypt. The British would have to take forces from the Middle East, whoever they were going to send to Crete, and perhaps from British garrisons in places like Singapore and India, and send the men over to Egypt.

To move to Syria, they would first have to conquer Syria, which only occured in June-July and without them loosing 5-6 brigades beforehand.


Of course, the Germans have such a narrow window here that, if I were to place a bet, my money would be on the British
 
And I don't really see how this relates in any way to Op. Merkur. I read through the thread but didn't find any evidence as to why landing the paras on Crete increased rest and refit time for AGS.

There wouldn't be one, because the British would not be in the fight and immediately withdraw to reinforce Egypt, and the Greeks would capitulate. So, this does end hostilities sooner and brings AGS back online perhaps a week ahead of time, which means they start rolling June 22nd with everyone else at the very least.

To move to Syria, they would first have to conquer Syria, which only occured in June-July and without them loosing 5-6 brigades beforehand.

True, but they had forces in Iraq to do it. They can either do this or double down on Alexandria and hope the fleet does not get captured.

Of course, the Germans have such a narrow window here that, if I were to place a bet, my money would be on the British

Agreed, but the Wallies played everything on the cautious side, so I do wonder where the fleet goes.
 
Just to make it clearer - it wouldn't be so much as landing paras outside of Alexandria against enemy resistance, but more something like transporting infantry via plane in order to support the panzers. But, again, this thing with the infantry is secondary, the main point is that the Ju-52s and other transport aircraft deliver fuel to get the panzers and their support groups to Alexandria, and, should they actually reach it, ferry in troops to try and help them take/surround the city.
But that's using 3 pounds of fuel to get 2 pounds to where you want it to go, not efficient, and depending of what else you've got planned, maybe not enough either.

1000kg bombs can still do significant damage to the suprastructure without sinking the ship. Plus, it's not like the British would risk it and see how good their armor holds up - had they been so inclined, they would have acted differently during the Norwegian campaign.
Really? I can find no reference that the RN showed any real fear of air attacks in that battle.

1. only the Ju-87D would have the range, and this model only got off the production lines in May 1941
And even then, I suspect it would be carrying no more than a 550 pound bomb.

2. if Rommel advances past the border and reaches Mersa Matruh, the LW can just as well stage their Stukas from there. Supplying them will be a bitch though
Yeah, it exacerbates an already pretty awful supply situation.
 
But that's using 3 pounds of fuel to get 2 pounds to where you want it to go, not efficient, and depending of what else you've got planned, maybe not enough either.

Nobody claimed it would be maximum efficiency :p
As long as it provides enough fuel to get the DAK to the gates of Alexandria, it's good enough. Trouble is, if they DO get there, do they actually have enough men and machines to win? Because, if they don't do so quickly, they're fucked.

On a related note, it would have been interesting if someone like Monty tried something like this - lure Rommel as far east as possible, anchor your defenses on Alexandria and envelop the fuel-less enemy.


Really? I can find no reference that the RN showed any real fear of air attacks in that battle.

I recall an episode on some documentary where the crew of some ship desperately wanted to get out of some fjord "even if the whole bloody German navy was waiting outside"
 
Top