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The POD is that Yuan Shikai contracts tuberculosis. The Guangxu Emperor therefore gets a chance to beat down the coup and arrest the plotters. The Hundred Days reform goes though. It could have gone either way. You can guess which way I'm taking things.

The Hundred Days reform become moderately successful in the short term and in the long term strengthen the position of the Qing ITTL. This scenario is very optimistic IMHO. Any pessimists can stop reading here.




The beat down coup and the Guangxu Reforms



The Great Awakening 1898-1913


At the end of the 19th century China was faced by a multitude of problems. It was a backward nation which had failed to modernize. Its isolation from the western world had caused stagnation. China was going through a crisis that severely weakened its society and sociopolitical system. Conservative Emperors had done China no good with their view that the Europeans were barbarians and their seclusion now came back to bite China. Western aggression, British opium smuggling, an inept ruling elite, a string of natural disasters, the Taiping rebellion and a massive bureaucracy were a near insurmountable challenge to the Qing dynasty. It shouldn’t be left without saying that the reformists had bright ideas but lacked experience in ruling and how to implement them. It would be an uphill battle from start to finish.

There was however a small group of people that were willing to take the necessary steps to make China the prominent power in Asia once again. At the head of this group was the Guangxu Emperor. He was pro-reformist but the ruling elite regarded him as a threat to their power and prevented any radical changes that could turn China’s situation around. The conservatives were headed by his own mother, of all people she opposed him, the Dowager Empress. A pro-reformist group consisting of Kang Youwei, Liang Qichao, Tan Sitong, Kang Guangren, Lin Xu, Yang Shenxiu, Yang Rui and Liu Guangdi was systematically blocked out. China at the end of the century remained backward despite the fact that an incentive for reform had been provided.

The ones who had provided the incentive were the upstart Japanese. The conflict had started over Korea which Japan saw as a threat to its security. It was, as a Prussian officer put it, ‘a dagger pointed at Japan’s heart’. Japan wanted to annex it before some other power could so. Several incidents had preceded the Sino-Japanese war. In 1876 Japan imposed the Treaty of Gangwha on Korea after incidents between Korean isolationists and Japanese. This treaty forced Korea to open up to Japanese trade and proclaim independence from China in its foreign affairs. China was understandably agitated as Korea was a tribute state under Chinese suzerainty. The Imo Incident in 1882 was another such incident. Korea was suffering from famines due to a severe drought. The state was nearly bankrupt. All of this led to discontent. Rioting broke out and a Japanese legation was attacked. Japan sent troops and China did the same to counter the Japanese. Korea moved more and more into an orbit around Japan and China could not tolerate this as it would mean loss of prestige. In 1894 a war broke out between China and Japan. The best forces of China, the Beiyang army and fleet, were soundly defeated and Korea became a Japanese protectorate. Peace was made in 1895 and a humiliating treaty was imposed on China forcing it to cede Taiwan and the Liaodong peninsula and pay 200 million Kuping taels, a third of the annual revenue of China, among other things.

In 1898 the Guangxu Emperor started a reform. The conservative Grand Council and the Dowager Empress opposed this as they feared that they would lose power. The reforms were considered too radical. A coup was prepared with the Dowager Empress as its leader. Little did they know that the Guangxu Emperor knew about the conspirators’ plans. The wild card was general Yuan Shikai. He was eliminated when he was bed tied after contracting tuberculosis, thus making him a non-entity in the political theatre. It is a general consensus among historians that he could have caused the coup to succeed as he knew about the Emperor’s plans. The inexperienced Emperor couldn’t have done much if that had happened. As it was, the Emperor had time to prepare a countercoup. The conspirators were arrested and the Dowager Empress was placed under house arrest in an ironic reversal of what she had planned. Many of the conspirators were sentenced to long prison sentences. Some had their noses cut off and the leaders were sentenced to death and swiftly executed. The angered Guangxu Emperor for the first time displayed the ruthlessness necessary. This was only part of the problem as this still didn’t solve the inexperience of the ‘new’ ruling elite.

This was the start of the Guangxu reformation. The educational system was reformed as was the traditional exam system. Mathematics and science were now prime subjects instead of studying Confucian teachings. The main problem was Kang Youwei’s inexperience. He was a brilliant theorist but hadn’t ruled over anything thus far. Needless to say there were several administrational problems in their implementation as the reforms were met with resistance. Initially the reforms had a small effect and it took time before they reached their full potential. In 1905 several schools in the more remote parts of China were still teaching Confucius. Lacking communications were also to blame though.

Sinecures, posts which give a salary but require little work, were eliminated. The tax collecting system was reformed to modern western standards. China opened up to foreign investment and commerce to apply capitalism to strengthen the economy and industrialize China. Most important of all was the creation of a modern army and navy. Japan had inflicted a devastating defeat. There was however a problem. The western powers of Britain, Russia, France and Japan wished to see a China that remained weak. None of them would want to help China become strong again. None of them wanted to help in any way unless it made China more dependent on them. There was however one western power that could gain from a strong China; Germany.

France, Britain, Russia and Japan were all allied against Germany in one way or the other. Many of China’s governmental institutions would be based on Imperial Wilhelmine Germany. A strong China could draw away the attention of three geopolitical competitors to the far eastern corner of Eurasia and away from Germany. Germany was understandably willing to help. Feelers were set out in Berlin by the Chinese ambassador for economic and military aid. Germany sent military advisors and provided modern equipment starting in 1899 as decided in the Treaty of Jena. Germany also had markets to gain from this and the treaty ensured that Germany would get the most lucrative markets and would always be asked first if an opportunity arose. This was a boost for Germany’s economy as it desperately needed markets; China was about the largest market one could wish for. This brought Emperor Wilhelm II one step closer to what seemed a wild idea; a Sino-German alliance.

German companies such as Krupp helped slowly but surely industrialize China. It would take at least two decades before China would surpass its major competitor for Asian dominance and arch nemesis; Japan. Improvement was there though. A draft was instituted and a two year service in the military was compulsory for ever man who reached the age of 21. There were a few modern units in the Chinese military but many still used muzzle loading rifles and, in rare cases, even lances to fight. General Von Hindenburg was appointed military attaché to China. He reorganized the Chinese army along Prussian lines, gave seminars to commanding officers on modern tactics and strategies in warfare and conducted war games and maneuvers to train the army. The new weapons and training were a great improvement but this Chinese army was completely new. It utterly lacked experience. German aid could only do so much and this would come to haunt China later on, more so since several conservative generals remained in charge.

In 1901 the first long distance telegraph and telephone lines were laid between Beijing and Nanjing. The modern communications allowed for more efficient rule and a more effective army. By 1910 industrial areas had sprung up around several major cities on the east coast. China was still behind on Japan but was closing. Production of coal, steel and pig iron, the basis for a modern and industrial economy, had nearly doubled in little over a decade. A Chinese Imperial Air Force was created in 1909. It remained small as air power was untested in combat. The foundations for what would become the largest air force in the world were there however. The navy during this timeframe was slightly neglected as China’s military minds considered China to be mainly a land power. Nevertheless, China purchased four Deutschland-class pre-dreadnoughts. A few cruisers and battlecruisers were bought as well to form the core of a small but potent fleet. In 1911 the Chinese purchased a Kaiser-class dreadnought which was the flagship of the Imperial Chinese Navy. A submarine arm was created in 1911. This activity caused Japan to worry a lot. It increased its presence in Korea which it had annexed a year earlier, expanded the army and started an ambitious fleet program.

The Era of Great Awakening as it was called, continued. The reforms were also political in nature. The Grand Council which had been powerless since the coup, was dissolved over vociferous protests. Instead a bicameral parliamentary system based on that of Germany and Britain was created. It consisted of the Lower House and the Imperial senate. The Lower House was elected by the people every six years. The largest party would form a coalition and provide ministers for a cabinet. It wasn’t a perfect system. The Emperor had the right to dismiss his government and issue new elections and the Prime Minister answered to him alone. The Imperial senate consisted of one representative for each province and was usually presided by a member of aristocracy. The new economic elite or bourgeoisie that was forming was increasingly encroaching on the power of the aristocrats however. Kang Youwei at this time attempted to draw up a constitution. Several versions were made and all were rejected, a testimony to his relative inexperience. In the end he decided to more or less copy the German constitution. It turned out that full fledged democracy was still a bridge too far for China. The Guangxu Emperor at this time had transformed from an inexperienced and soft ruler to a ruthless politician. His reforms were being implemented and were more or less successful. This moderate success gave the ‘soft’ Emperor a boost in self confidence. The conservatives by now were afraid to contest his power. The immense popularity boost he had gotten among the people due to his reforms further curtailed the power of the conservatives. The once discredited Qing dynasty was firmly in power again. For all intents and purposes, China seemed to remain authoritarian.

By 1913 the Era of Great Awakening was nearing its end. China was industrializing and would in time surpass everyone. China was also growing towards democracy for as far as the conservatives allowed it, modern communications such as telegraph, phone and in some places radiotelegraphy connected most of the major coastal cities, a modern army was forming and quality of life in general was improving. Large swaths of China in the west of the country and the countryside were left largely untouched by the reforms. The aristocracy and conservative elite managed to hold on to their power there. China still had a lot of improving to do but was doing well when compared to 1894.

It was at the end of the first decade of the twentieth century that China officially entered the Triple Alliance, thus becoming part of the Central Powers. The alliance was henceforth known as the Quadruple Alliance. This ensured the aid of Austria-Hungary and Italy for what it was worth. In 1912 Skoda opened its first factory in Beijing. Italian aircraft manufacturer Piaggio did the same in 1914. Both were attracted by the increasing demand for weapons for the growing Chinese armed forces. The British, Russians and French were left unimpressed by this move. They underestimated how strong China had become and they would suffer for it during the conflict that loomed over Europe. China would make them pay for their humiliations, aggression and unequal treaties. They would be revoked and China would be strong once more. Yes, China would grow strong.
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