The Bear vs the Dragon - a Sino-Soviet War TL
- Thread starter Onkel Willie
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Holy fuck batman 21 cities glassed and 22 if you count the first city the Soviets nuked. China is finished under Mao. Chaing may be able to regain southern China but it's going to be a major rebuilding task.
Then things in Korea aren't looking good either. If the North Vietnamese line to 75 I will be surprised
Then things in Korea aren't looking good either. If the North Vietnamese line to 75 I will be surprised
He's probably got Red Guards around him at all times. Those guys would follow him to the apocalypse.
Oh wait...
Jack Brisco
Banned
Plup, plup, plup....that's the sound of the shit hitting the fan, and this fan is industrial-size. Anus-clenching situation throughout the Far East. Korea, Japan, maybe Taiwan, Alaska, and the US West Coast are in for fallout from all the nuclear strikes.
Outside the nuked cities, which tended to be in the more heavily populated eastern portion of China, the Soviet nuclear bombardment has also played havoc with Chinese agriculture. Nearly all the best Chinese farmland is in the east. Some places get two crops of rice a year. Lots of destruction and fallout, right during planting season. Expect famine among the surviving Chinese. The USSR's main agricultural areas weren't touched, and all fallout is heading east, towards the Pacific.
I would also think the North Vietnamese are up the creek. China can no longer support them. The USSR will have enough to do in other places. Maybe the North Vietnamese agree to a negotiated peace. Smartest thing to do before the Allies defeat them, now that support isn't likely to come for a long time, if ever.
Outside the nuked cities, which tended to be in the more heavily populated eastern portion of China, the Soviet nuclear bombardment has also played havoc with Chinese agriculture. Nearly all the best Chinese farmland is in the east. Some places get two crops of rice a year. Lots of destruction and fallout, right during planting season. Expect famine among the surviving Chinese. The USSR's main agricultural areas weren't touched, and all fallout is heading east, towards the Pacific.
I would also think the North Vietnamese are up the creek. China can no longer support them. The USSR will have enough to do in other places. Maybe the North Vietnamese agree to a negotiated peace. Smartest thing to do before the Allies defeat them, now that support isn't likely to come for a long time, if ever.
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Jack Brisco
Banned
I'm not so sure the ChiComs could have gotten a bomber through to Vladivostok. IIRC their anti air defenses were quite thick in that region, very formidable and it seems unlikely they couldn't stop an air attack.
Now, I need to melt more butter for my popcorn.
Agree. Vladivostok is a major naval base and port for the Soviets. My guess is PVO fighters would have gone after any Chinese bombers as soon as it was determined they were heading toward the USSR. Bet they'd send everything that could get those bombers, and PVO had plenty.
Now all we need is for Moa to deploy some biological and chemical weapons on the Soviets and take them down with him. Via a new black death.
Jack Brisco
Banned
Outside of the problem with fallout, the Allies have won in Korea.
Onkel Willie, "The Samson Option" deserves a mini-Turtledove Award. Very good.
Or he takes one look at the situation and goes "yeah fuck that".
On the Vladivostock thing, maybe the Chinese spent what remained of their luck?
Whew, if Mao doesn't call it quits, there won't be a China left for him to terrorize.
This is a very good update...
I think more account needs to be taken of the U.S. response, though.
The moment the first nuke goes off, SAC would pretty much have to escalate to at least DEFCON 3. More to the point, the Soviets would likely notice.
It would be difficult for Nixon to insist on no Soviet nuclear strikes, since Mao struck first. But I can certainly see him sending Kissinger (or some backchannel) to suggest a deal, and a threat: We're willing to confine our opposition to the rhetorical if 1) your response is limited, and 2) if it doesn't make use of strategic assets that can threaten the continental United States, i.e., a preemptive first strike on the most vulnerable parts of the U.S. nuclear deterrent. "If you start firing off SS-7s and SS-8's, we really have no way of knowing where they're headed once our early warning birds start detecting the launches before we have to decide to respond. And that's just not acceptable." A compromise might consist of demanding that any Soviet strikes make use of MRBMs (like the SS-4) or bombers. Its not like Mao has any real defense against even that. The "limited response" condition seems to be met here otherwise, though - barely.
In 1969, the U.S. still had a significant (albeit shrinking) advantage in first strike assets, so it's not a warning Brezhnev can simply ignore.
This is a fairly minor tweak to this installment, though. But it's an important one to account for, I think.
I think more account needs to be taken of the U.S. response, though.
The moment the first nuke goes off, SAC would pretty much have to escalate to at least DEFCON 3. More to the point, the Soviets would likely notice.
It would be difficult for Nixon to insist on no Soviet nuclear strikes, since Mao struck first. But I can certainly see him sending Kissinger (or some backchannel) to suggest a deal, and a threat: We're willing to confine our opposition to the rhetorical if 1) your response is limited, and 2) if it doesn't make use of strategic assets that can threaten the continental United States, i.e., a preemptive first strike on the most vulnerable parts of the U.S. nuclear deterrent. "If you start firing off SS-7s and SS-8's, we really have no way of knowing where they're headed once our early warning birds start detecting the launches before we have to decide to respond. And that's just not acceptable." A compromise might consist of demanding that any Soviet strikes make use of MRBMs (like the SS-4) or bombers. Its not like Mao has any real defense against even that. The "limited response" condition seems to be met here otherwise, though - barely.
In 1969, the U.S. still had a significant (albeit shrinking) advantage in first strike assets, so it's not a warning Brezhnev can simply ignore.
This is a fairly minor tweak to this installment, though. But it's an important one to account for, I think.
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Issue is, well, all someone in the PLA'll need is a company or two of infantry on hand, that'll be the end of the Guard.
ITTL, 2017 China will probably be thought of the same way we think of the Middle East: Once a peaceful and prosperous land (the cradle of civilization, the Islamic golden age, Ottoman Empire) torn apart by war and bloodsheed.
Lost Freeway
Banned
I do wonder what will happen to the USSR after the war. Compared to China, they've barely received a pinprick.
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