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Hello, readers! This is my TL that I will be doing in response to my AH Challenge. I will transfer my posts from my other thread and into this thread. That way, my other AH Challenge thread can be used as a discussion forum while this thread will be used for the chapters and further discussions and questions. Of course, this is a Russia TL, but starts off with an entirely different PoD. (We can say that Russia's PoD is caused by another country in this TL) NOTE: There will be more than one country receiving the wank. ;) So, without a further ado, The Bear Migrates to the Pacific.

The Bear Migrates to the Pacific:



(The Prologue: European PoD)​


A simple death of a historical figure decides the fate of a country. Any outcome would have been drastically different for world history if that historical figure had died earlier or later than his real death. Yes, it's Jan Karol Chodkiewicz who has died back in the Moldavian Magnate Wars (and where our PoD will begin.​

It was back in 1600 at the height of the Moldavian Magnate Wars, Poland-Lithuania faced off against the Ottoman juggernaut and the Habsburgs over the influence for Moldavia. Strategically speaking, Moldavia is situated close to the Black Sea. Any great power which utilizes this crucial location can decide any outcome of any conflict, or enhance its prestige in whatever field they are in need, from economical to political. And so it was at the Battle of Teleajan River where the Moldavian forces under Mihai Viteazul engaged a Polish Army under Zamoyski and Jan Karol Chodkiewicz. Although the Commonwealth has won that battle, it was a costly victory as Chodkiewicz was killed while leading a cavalry charge. A minor, careless move on his part had costed his life, but the Moldavians never broke the morale of the Commonwealth.​

The Polish-Swedish Wars broke into two phases, mainly because of truces that held the two nations at bay. However, the main cause of the war was Sigismund III Vasa's loss of the Swedish crown and his intention to regain it at whatever costs. However, the death of Chodkiewicz had deprived the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth of an able cavalry commander, and the fear of the Winged hussars have been dispelled as they're impotent without a smart commander's tactics.​

Since March of 1601, the Swedish Army had laid siege at the Koknese castle in Kokenhausen. Although they held the town of Kokenhausen, they hadn't taken control of the castle, which was held by a Polish garrison. Moreover, a Polish relief force under Radziwill in turn, began to besiege the Swedes. The Swedes' response was to relief the army besieging the Koknese castle, by sending Carl Gyllenhielm's relief force. The Poles began an assault to break the Swedes' right flank, which could have a fatal consequence on Gyllenhielm's army. Gyllenhielm responded by giving orders to the Swedish force besieging the Koknese castle to lift the siege and join in the fighting. The increasingly outnumbered Poles reacted in alarm, yet kept their posture as to not give out their weakness to their adversary. Swedish resistance along with Polish desperation to break out of the other Swedish trap resulted in a large amount of casualties. The battle lasted for several hours until both sides became exhausted. Finally, Gyllenhielm spotted a gap in the Commonwealth infantry ranks and began to surround them with a cavalry squad. The exhausted Swedes broke through the gap and cut the remaining Polish troops to pieces, but they also suffer more casualties as exhaustion had also taken toll on them. In the end, the Swedes eke out a Phyrric victory over a smaller but tougher Polish-Lithuanian foe.​

Zamoyski died in 1605 due to complication in his health (he had fallen ill a few years back), and without two able commanders to lead the Commonwealth armies to victory, Sweden was spared the full assault from the feared winged hussars. It was this very precise factor that led the Swedes to a more decisive victory in the Battles of Dorpat and Kircholm.​

At Dorpat the Swedes had successfully relieved the besieged defenders of that town by defeating the Polish Army, with the absence of Zamoyski. In Kircholm the Swedes waited for reinforcements to arrive while the Commonwealth forces were aided by Cossacks and Tatars. As noted earlier, the absence of the winged hussars' assault had a positive effect on the Swedes as they took the fight to the Commonwealth. First, King Charles IX ordered the main cavalry reserve to wait in reserve while the artillery fired a barrage into the Commonwealth ranks. Upon sowing confusion in the PLC ranks, the Swedish infantry began to open fire on them while German and Dutch mercenary troops closed in on the other infantry formation. Just as the Swedish infantry was about to gain an upper hand, Charles IX ordered the infantry groups to retreat, making a feint and hoping for the winged hussars to take the bait. Just as he predicted, the winged hussars took advantage of the Swedish 'disarray' and gave chase, eagerly to prevent the infantry from interfering with the cavalry charge. Charles IX had intended for the battle hardened but inept led winged hussars to fall for his trap, using infantry groups as a bait so he could send in the artillery to cause chaos in the Polish cavalry group before sending in the Swedish cavalry to wipe them out.​

The first phase of the Polish-Swedish War would eventually end in a Swedish victory. As a result Sweden's victory, Estonia and Latvia were firmly under their control and the siege of Riga ended in their victory as well. However, the Thirty Years' War would have a different plot as a result of the Polish defeat. There was a second and final phase of the war, which was mainly concerned with the PLC's desire to regain Livonia. The final phase of the Polish-Swedish War was also marked by the Swedes' attempt to increase their influence around the Baltic Sea by invading Prussia, and Gustavus Adolphus will be the man leading the invasion force.​

Thirty Years' War:

Catholic and Protestant rivalry had been the defining factor in deciding the outcome of the Thirty Years' War. Fearful of each other's influence had divided Europe into two religious rival camps, with the Habsburgs leading the Catholic camp and the Protestant Union leading the Protestant camp. Old rivalries that couldn't be put aside erupted in a series of phases. Unlike OTL's 30YW phases, the phases of this 30YW will be divided into the following:​

- The Polish-Ottoman War of 1620-1621 (instead of Chodkiewicz participating in the Battle of Khotyn, it would be Mykhailo Khmelnytsky, father of Bohdan Khmelnytsky)
- Swedish Intervention
- Polish-Lithuanian Intervention (France remains neutral, most likely dealing with the Protestant revolt in its lands)
- A possible Prussian entry into the war (their neutrality is often cast aside in OTL 30YW)​

1) Polish-Ottoman War of 1620-1621

Relations between the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and the Ottoman Empire have been at best, rocky. There were main issues that continued to plague the relations between two great powers, such as the constant Cossack raids into Ottoman territory and the competition over Moldavia, which the Ottomans felt should be within their sphere of influence. Moreover, Gabor Bethlen asked the Ottomans for help in his insurrection against the Habsburgs, drawing Poland-Lithuania into the conflict, as Gaspar Graziani switched sides in Poland's favor. And so, the two forces met at the Battle of Tutora.​

Battle of Tutora:

Stanislaw Koniecpolski became aware of the liability of certain Moldavian rebels and ordered some of his trusted officers to keep an eye on them. He also used these same rebels on September 10 to deter any enemy force from taking them by surprise. Just as Koniecpolski had suspected, a Tatar advance force had launched a surprise attacks on the rebel Moldavians, alerting the Commonwealth forces to their presence.​

To make sure that the mercenary troops are disciplined, Koniecpolski and Mykhailo Khmelmytsky punished undisciplined magnate leaders and took control of the remains of their forces. Despite the draconian measures taken by the Poles to rein in the rebel Moldavians from possibly defecting back to the Ottomans, they were still outnumbered, only by a slight margin. Casualties ran high for both sides as the Ottomans fought hard to dislodge the Commonwealth forces from their positions. Without the problems that faced the PLC in OTL, their chance of victory remained intact.​

The Ottomans on the other hand, having realized that with an increasing amount of casualties on their side, they couldn't push their forces onward unless they could afford to lose more troops in the process.​

On September 29, the Commonwealth forces spotted a weak point in the Ottomans' flank and broke through with the use of the tabors. The Ottomans began to retreat from the battlefield once they saw their flanks cut to pieces. However, the Battle of Tutora would be indecisive as neither side was able to get the upper hand, though it can be considered a Polish Phyrric victory since the Ottomans were forced to retreat with the remnants of their armies. Numerous figures within the PLC managed to avoid the fate of becoming an Ottoman slave, such as the father of Bohdan Khmelnytsky.​

Suspended campaign of winter of 1620-September 1621:

Because of the winter temperatures, the Polish-Ottoman War was suspended, though there some punitive raids made by the Crimean Tatars. In addition, the Catholic League had overrun the defense circle in Brandenburg-Prussia, whose armies were led by Wallenstein. Brandenburg-Prussia's status in the war was often contested since it declared neutrality before being forced to join the Catholic camp. Because of the Polish victory in Tutora, the Ottomans temporarily retreated back to their frontiers and rested for a while before attempting another march towards the Commonwealth. (IE: Polish victory at Tutora may possibly mean no Battle of Khotyn, but there could be a battle on the Polish-Ottoman border in Moldavia in its place)​

Battle of Varna (OTL Counterpart: Battle of Khotyn):

The Ottomans retreated from the Polish frontier near one of their fortress in Varna, OTL Bulgaria. Their depleted forces waited for reinforcements to arrive from Constantinople and Adrianopolis while leaving out some smaller fortress, hoping to hinder the Polish-Lithuanian advance and possibly sparking off revolts within the Ottoman Empire.​

A janissary squad was ambushed by Commonwealth troops on August 21, but a few surviving infantry soldiers managed to report back to the Ottoman garrison in Varna, alerting them to the Commonwealth's presence. However, the Ottomans neglected to build other obstacles that could have hinder the advance of their Polish adversaries, especially their use of the Winged hussars and Ukrainian Cossacks. For the Commonwealth forces, the prospect of having to free their Christian brethren in the Ottoman Empire became a possibility, with some Ukrainians eager to expand their nominal campaign to become the leader of a post-Ottoman Christian Orthodox Balkans.​

August 22, 1621: The Ottoman cavalry launched a surprise attack on the Commonwealth forces, only eighty miles away from Varna. By September 2, the Polish-Lithuanian main army had arrived in Varna and began to launch their siege.​

At the same day as the start of the siege the Polish winged hussars tried to destroy an Ottoman camp where the main artillery and infantry forces are staying, but failed in the end. The Ottomans however, lost some of their artillery pieces to the Commonwealth attack, as inexperience played into the factor that decided the skirmish in the PLC's favor. The Commonwealth forces had repeatedly failed to make a breakthrough towards the fortress, they tried to cut off supply routes that the Ottomans used to sustain themselves during the siege. The janissaries put up a fierce resistance against Commonwealth infantry, while being but down by winged hussars and Ukrainian Cossacks.​

Luckily for the Ottoman Empire, the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth didn't have a port in the Black Sea where they can build a navy to help dislodge the Ottomans from Varna. This factor wasn't forgotten by Osman II as he sent the Ottoman fleet to relieve the siege of Varna. The Ottoman naval vessels proved to be adecisive factor in relieving the Varna garrison, as the Commonwealth forces were cut off from the supply routes they used, and hunger and disease took a toll on their advance forces. A final assault was planned for the 30th of September, but the Commonwealth was dangerously low on supplies, and too exhausted to make any advances.​

Negotiations began on October 1st, 1621, just outside Varna. The Ottomans compromised with the Polish-Lithuanians regarding Moldavia and their involvement in aiding Gabor Bethlen. The Treaty of Varna ended the Polish-Ottoman War and dashed the Ukrainians' dream of possibly liberating the Orthodx Christian captive nations of the Ottoman Empire. The PLC recognized the Ottoman influence on Moldavia, Wallachia and Transylvania, while the Ottomans promised to stop Tatars from raiding into the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.​

Although the Commonwealth had managed to stop the Ottomans from dismembering its empire, it had to contend with the missed opportunity to liberate the Christian nations under the Ottoman yoke. Indeed, it was this dream that will eventually drive Bohdan Khmelnytsky to revolt against the PLC and establish an independent Ukraine, possibly including White Ruthenia(Belarus) and reuniting the Orthodox Christian nations of the Balkans. As for the Ottomans, their only successful achievement was the retention of the same captive nations and preventing the Commonwealth from advancing towards Constantinople, where they might recreate a Latin Patriarchate once again, just like what the Crusaders did during the Fourth Crusade.​

2) Swedish Intervention

Sweden's intervention in the Thirty Year War started when its army led by Gustavus Adolphus invaded the Holy Roman Empire. It's obvious that Sweden would come to protect the German Lutherans, as well as acquiring some economical influence on the non-catholic German states around the Baltic coast, possibly accomplishing the notion of the Baltic Sea as Sweden's backyard. Like in OTL, Sweden won a couple of victories inside the Holy Roman Empire. By displaying the strength of the Swedish armies and the leadership that Gustavus Adolphus displayed, the Protestant camp became more concerned about their advantage should he be killed in action.​

Battle of Lutzen:

The two forces of Sweden and the HRE clashed at Lutzen on November 6, 1632. However, the battle itself started rather late, due to heavy fog, which inhibited both sides from conducting their battle phase properly. Finnish Hakkapeliitta cavalry squadrons spread terror into the Imperial rank and file, just as the Winged hussars would have done had Chodkiewicz had done. Just as the Swedes were about to gain an upper hand in this battle, an Imperial cavalry group under Gottfried zu Pappenheim managed to stem the Swedish assault. Papenheim spotted a group of Swedish cannons putting up a barrage as his forces were pummeled by the sudden attack. He only managed to live long enough to launch a desperate counterattack against the Swedes, even though a cannonball had struck him a few minutes after his counterattack. Pappenheim died only after his counterattack proved to be successful in annhiliating the Finnish Hakkapeliitta cavalry as they refused to surrender. Gustavus Adolphus at one point, contemplated a cavalry charge attack to regain the momentum, but decided not to until the Swedish veteran infantry had taken the Imperial center and right wing position. His judgment may have saved the Swedes from defeat as their infantry failed to dislodged the Imperials. The casualties that the Swedes sustained in the aftermath of this failed assault forced Gustavus Adolphus to temporarily call for a retreat from the battlefield. Although he would have committed a full force attack using his cavalry, they would have only died in vain. Moreover, there was a possibility that he might die while leading the cavalry charges. Finally, Gustavus Adolphus knew that if Sweden were to gain access to the north Germanic states, he might have to do it while his army remained intact, but would lose a few battles. On the Imperial side, Wallenstein's Imperial artillery battery only held on to their position long enough to force the surviving Swedes to retreat. Gustavus Adolphus was shocked when he heard the casualty rates that his army sustained and decided to retreat to their base on Pomerania. He will have to wait until fresh reinforcements would arrive from Sweden. Little did he knew, his decision may have proven to be a blessing in disguise. Had he died, the Protestant camp would have suffered more misfortunes than they already have.​

3) Polish-Lithuanian Intervention (France Remains Neutral)

Since France continued to deal with Huguenot revolts in the countryside, it couldn't participate in the 30YW on either side. The PLC intervened in that war for mixed reasons. First and foremost, the Commonwealth wanted revenge on Sweden for its victory in the Polish-Swedish War. Second of all, the PLC had already aided the Habsburgs (albeit indirectly) with the use of their mercenary cavalry troops. Finally, by making the Baltic Sea a giant Swedish 'lake', the PLC wouldn't be able to create its own naval fleet, as well as conduct trade without having to rely on other states.​

Battle of Wittstock (1636):

Wittstock was close to the border with Brandenburg, but the Poles participated in this battle, because a Catholic loss would leave the PLC's Baltic coast vulnerable to Swedish capture. The Swedes managed to get their desired reinforcements, but the Polish-Lithuanians had other plans. Wladyslaw Wasa planned to attack the Swedish encampment while it's dark, hastening their exhaustion. The Imperial forces waited until the Commonwealth forces had finished with their phase in this battle. When morning had arrived, the Commonwealth forces began to dislodge the Swedish forces out of their encampment and into the waiting arms of the Imperial forces, where they had their cannons positioned. Immediately, Imperial cannons opened fire on the trapped Swedish forces, decimating half of their troops. To make matters worse, the PLC had captured Pomerania, trapping the Swedes on the continent, but almost succeeded in provoking Prussia.​

The Swedes took heavy casualties while trying to regroup with what remained of their armies. A Scottish and English regiment was badly decimated in the Imperial ambush, and Johan Baner's attempted counterattack failed to dislodge the Imperial forces. A Polish cavalry group operating under Wladyslaw Wasa had outflanked the Swedish infantry group and routed them. In the aftermath of the Battle of Wittstock, the Swedes lost around forty percent of their forces, while the combined Imperial and Commonwealth forces lost the same amount. Gustavus Adolphus was absent during that battle because he was in talks with Prussian leaders in negotiating Prussia's possible entry into the 30YW. They only need a simple incident on the Imperial or Commonwealth side for Prussia to enter the war. Moreover, Gustavus Adolphus offered the hand of his daughter Christina to Frederick William. The Prussians had reservations about having Frederick William marrying the daughter of the current Swedish king. Some thought that Sweden might realize its dream of dominating the Baltic Sea, leaving them as a second rate power to them. Others knew that the geographical location might make it impossible for a dynastic union to happen, unless two scenarios happened:​

- The Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth may have to be severely weakened by the possible invasion and occupation of Lithuanian coast.
- Sweden would have to annex Denmark and possibly allow a few north Germanic states to unite with Prussia.​

So the Prussians agreed, albeit reluctantly, to have Frederick William marry Christina of Sweden, cementing a dynastic union between Sweden and Prussia. In return, the Swedes promised to cede some captured territories they have to the new Prussian state. The Prussians accepted that deal, hoping to come out into the world as a rising power and to unite the Protestant Germanic states under its control. Eventually, the Prussians and Swedes could end up forming a Protestant version of the Habsburg monarchy. With luck, they could weaken both the Habsburg controlled Holy Roman Empire and the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, but only time will tell if their goals would ever become true.​

Battle of Tannenberg 1642 (OTL Counterpart: Battle of Breitenfeld):

Out of all places the Poles chose to attack in Prussia, they chose Tannenberg. There were several reasons why the PLC chose to invade Tannenberg, but mostly strategical and historical. In 1410 Poland and Lithuania defeated the Teutonic Knights in this very same city, and in 1642 they were about to do inflict the same defeat to the Prussians and possibly dispel any attempts by Sweden to create a Protestant clone of the Habsburg monarchy that dominated the Catholic Holy Roman Empire.​

To mark the first phase of the Tannenberg invasion, the Commonwealth infantry groups advanced into the town of Grunwald. There, the Prussian forces engaged the Lithuanian contigent while the Polish artillery bombarded the Prussian cavalry group. Prussian guns opened fire in return while the Lithuanians suddenly retreated. Unlike the 1410 Battle of Grunwald where the Teutonic Knights fell for the Lithuanian ruse, the Swedes instead joined the battle on Prussia's side and took the bait instead. It was at this time that Gustavus Adolphus would lead the charge for the last time as he would eventually be killed by a combined Polish-Lithuanian cavalry charge. Upon learning of the king's death, Lennart Thorstenson took command of the Swedish Army and regrouped before launching a counterattack to repel the PLC invaders. The Swedes took more casualties than the Prussians, enabling some of the Prussian infantry reserves to commit themselves to the fighting. This time, the Prussians tried to lure the Poles into a deathtrap using the same ruse the Lithuanians did on their Teutonic predecessors. However, the Lithuanians recognized the ruse and instead, paused while the fake retreat ended up turning into a real rout. The Swedes responded by using their infantry groups to hold the line while the Prussians regrouped from their blunder. Both sides suffered massive casualties in this battle, but the Commonwealth was forced to turn back when the Ottoman Empire threatened to intervene on the Protestant side again, this time challenging the Poles' ambition to overrun the Crimean Khanate. (Though this news was later to be nothing more than just a false alarm, it proved to be successful in preventing the PLC from totally ravaging the Prussian duchy. Moreover, the person responsible for spreading this warning was Bohdan Khmelnytsky, mainly due to the Tatars' ignorance of the truce between the PLC and the Ottoman Empire)​

The final phase of the war was determined in the Battle of Pomerania, between the PLC and the Catholic League against Sweden and Prussia. The PLC had reacted to the false warning issued by Khmelnytsky by giving him command of the Zaphorozhian Cossacks patrolling the border with the Crimean Khanate. The fate of the 30YW lies in this final battle.​

Battle of Pomerania (OTL Counterpart: Battle of Prague):

The combined Commonwealth and Imperial forces marched into Swedish Pomerania. The Imperial infantry groups entered Stettin first, accompanied by seventeen cannons in the rear while the cavalry waited until the city's defenses were destroyed. Swedish and Prussian infantry were entrenched in the Sttetin fortress, which proved to be a nuisance for the invaders. By the time the Imperial and Commonwealth cavalry groups entered the city, most of Stettin have been captured, except for the fortress. It took three weeks to finally dislodge the defending Swedish and Prussian soldiers inside the fortress and the Imperial flag was hoisted on the roof.​

Peace of Novgorod (OTL Counterpart: Peace of Westphalia):

Tsarist Russia offered to mediate in the ceasefire, which the both sides accepted. Several treaties were drafted and signed throughout the Russian state, although in return all of the 30YW combatants made it clear that they will not allow Russia to intervene in their affairs. Only one treaty dealt with the Holy Roman Empire and its Catholic allies and Sweden and its main ally Prussia. The Treaty of Novgorod states that:​

- All sides would recognize and abide by the 1555 Peace of August. Eace Germanic prince would decide which religion to adopt, and his subjects would have to follow the same religion as their prince. (Pope Innocent X denounced the entire treaty, however.)
- Territorial adjustments have been made, most notably the independence of the Netherlands and Switzerland. The Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth retains its Baltic coast. In addition, the Duchy of Prussia's union with Sweden is declared null and void as the Commonwealth annexes the Prussian state. (Though they were forced to let it go during a Prussian Revolt that occured at the same time as the Khmelnytsky Uprising)
- Sweden is to withdraw its forces from Pomerania and Prussia. In addition, they had to cede Courland and Estonia to the PLC. (They would eventually get it back in the Khmelnytsky Uprising)
- Many more tenets like in OTL have been drawn up.
- All sides agreed that in any future conflict on the European continent, Tsarist Russia must not be allowed to intervene or help one side as a belligerent. (This final clause would eventually come back to haunt them)​

So thus ends the PoD: European Prologue, and the next chapter will be the Russian decision to march east, but not before the Khmelnytsky Uprising, where Ukraine could have its state.​
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