The Battle of Wake Island

The land battle for Wake Atoll was a very close thing. If it weren't for a downed communications line to Wilkes Island making the overall commander mistakenly think that the battles had been lost there, it is likely that they would have defeated the landing. The Japanese plan called for them to ram 6 destroyers onto Wake and have the crews overwhelm the troops with force of numbers, a plan that most likely would have worked, but at an even higher cost than OTL.

Concerning the relief fleet turning back, forget the carriers. It turns out that 6 Japanese heavy and light cruisers were in tight picket line in the course of Task Force 14. The Japanese carriers were 250 miles away, to far to help. Its likely that had TF14 not turned back, they would have found and sunk all 6 cruisers.

The Japanese fleet was always critically short of ships during the war. The loss of 6 cruisers and 6 destroyers, in addition to the 2 other destroyers sunk OTL, and the heavy damaging of the Yubari would have a significant affect on how the remainder of the war was fought. The best that the Amaricans can hope for is a chane to evacuate Wake island, thus giving the public a morale victory.

Interestingly enough, even the carriers may have been vulnerable. There is evidence that they were critically short on fuel, and that there was only enough left for its Kate bomber to make one sortie. If true, just imagine the effect of Japan losing 2 of its carriers so early in the war.
Src, Given up for Dead , by Bill Sloan
 
I think the amount of planes shot down and damaged is a good result for 12 planes, about what you could expect. That it was done with 4 planes is amazing, and rightly deserves to be lauded, but I don't think better results would be obtained if there were up to 12 wildcats. If the 2nd sqn was deployed then I think better results could be expected.
 
What if, for some reason, Wake had a working radar set on December 8th? How much of a difference would that have made? Assuming they can keep the Japanese from destroying it.
 
I think the amount of planes shot down and damaged is a good result for 12 planes, about what you could expect. That it was done with 4 planes is amazing, and rightly deserves to be lauded, but I don't think better results would be obtained if there were up to 12 wildcats. If the 2nd sqn was deployed then I think better results could be expected.


OTL, Japanese aircraft losses were as follows.

21 aircraft shot down and 51 aircraft damaged by flak
 
It is worth noting that the Japanese never made an opposed amphibious assault of the sort the Marines (and army) routinely made 1943-45. Basically none of their landings were made against any significant opposition - in fact many were almost administrative landings. With the little they had the garrison on Wake beat off several attempts. with a proper garrison, and properly prepared fortifications I bet the landings fail. Having said that, no matter what the state of the fortifications on Wake & the garrison, a knife fight between the USN & IJN in mid-December leaves the USn bleeding badly.

As far as I know the Japanese made a corps sized opposed amphibious landing already in 1937... It was just not against the Americans.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Shanghai
 
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Markus

Banned
I think the amount of planes shot down and damaged is a good result for 12 planes, about what you could expect. That it was done with 4 planes is amazing, and rightly deserves to be lauded, but I don't think better results would be obtained if there were up to 12 wildcats.

Take a look at this:

Japanese aviation's performance this day, however, had conveyed some lessons to the defenders. Summing them up, from 9 December until the final carrier-strikes, Major Putnam would write:
The original raid * * * was tactically well conceived and skillfully executed, but thereafter their tactics were stupid, and the best that can be said of their skill is that they had excellent flight discipline. The hour and altitude of their arrival over the island was almost constant and their method of attack invariable, so that it was a simple matter to meet them, and they never, after that first day, got through unopposed * * *​
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Bearcat

Banned
Take a look at this:

From that source and others on ww2 radar we can conclude that even having operational radar, an interception of the 12/8 raid would be difficult. The crude 1941 radars did not provide altitude information, so the CAP could easily miss the incoming bombers even if ordered to intercept.

It is possible that the remaining F4Fs could have been scrambled off the ground, and so not been caught there and mostly destroyed. At least a few more aircraft survive the 8th intact, allowing the squadron to take a higher toll of the daily Betty attacks over the next two weeks, and with more parts available (as aircraft suffered operational accidents), the CV raid is met by 4 or 5 aircraft instead of two surviving Wildcats, which were both shot down.

Still, its going to be tough to repel that second invasion without substantial reinforcement.
 

Markus

Banned
Still, its going to be tough to repel that second invasion without substantial reinforcement.

If most Wildcats survive the first air raid they will inflict very serious casualties on the japanese bombers over the next two, three days. Without air superiority the cancellation of the Dec, 11th landing is very likely. If the Japanese decide to land in daylight on the 23rd, the Marines have a chance to defeat this landing with their shore batteries whose capabilities are still unknown to the IJN.
 
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