The land battle for Wake Atoll was a very close thing. If it weren't for a downed communications line to Wilkes Island making the overall commander mistakenly think that the battles had been lost there, it is likely that they would have defeated the landing. The Japanese plan called for them to ram 6 destroyers onto Wake and have the crews overwhelm the troops with force of numbers, a plan that most likely would have worked, but at an even higher cost than OTL.
Concerning the relief fleet turning back, forget the carriers. It turns out that 6 Japanese heavy and light cruisers were in tight picket line in the course of Task Force 14. The Japanese carriers were 250 miles away, to far to help. Its likely that had TF14 not turned back, they would have found and sunk all 6 cruisers.
The Japanese fleet was always critically short of ships during the war. The loss of 6 cruisers and 6 destroyers, in addition to the 2 other destroyers sunk OTL, and the heavy damaging of the Yubari would have a significant affect on how the remainder of the war was fought. The best that the Amaricans can hope for is a chane to evacuate Wake island, thus giving the public a morale victory.
Interestingly enough, even the carriers may have been vulnerable. There is evidence that they were critically short on fuel, and that there was only enough left for its Kate bomber to make one sortie. If true, just imagine the effect of Japan losing 2 of its carriers so early in the war.
Src, Given up for Dead , by Bill Sloan
Concerning the relief fleet turning back, forget the carriers. It turns out that 6 Japanese heavy and light cruisers were in tight picket line in the course of Task Force 14. The Japanese carriers were 250 miles away, to far to help. Its likely that had TF14 not turned back, they would have found and sunk all 6 cruisers.
The Japanese fleet was always critically short of ships during the war. The loss of 6 cruisers and 6 destroyers, in addition to the 2 other destroyers sunk OTL, and the heavy damaging of the Yubari would have a significant affect on how the remainder of the war was fought. The best that the Amaricans can hope for is a chane to evacuate Wake island, thus giving the public a morale victory.
Interestingly enough, even the carriers may have been vulnerable. There is evidence that they were critically short on fuel, and that there was only enough left for its Kate bomber to make one sortie. If true, just imagine the effect of Japan losing 2 of its carriers so early in the war.
Src, Given up for Dead , by Bill Sloan