The Battle of Normandy - more successful Allies?

Every Normandy 1944 what-if I've seen involves an improved performance by the German army/SS. So what would happen if the Allies did better?

I suggest that the POD is the reverse of the classic: Rommel wins his arguments with the Rundstedt/OKH/Hitler, leading to the Panzers in position to oppose the landings on the 6th. The 12th SS at Omaha seems to be a particular favourite, probably because this is where Rommel wanted them. In OTL one division (21st Panzer) was in place, the other two Panzer divisions were held further back as strategic reserve.

In OTL there were 5 German divisions involved on or soon after D-Day: 352nd (first combat 6-6-44) and 716th Infantry (6-6-44), 12th SS Panzer (7-6-44), Panzer Lehr (8-6-44) and 21st Panzer (6-6-44). The 21st reached the sea between Sword and Juno beaches, but fell back when the airborne drops of the 6/7th began, and both infantry divisions were pushed back with severe casualties.

So what if Rommel had failed to convince Hitler to move any divisions up to the coast? The 21st's counter-attack achieved little, but their presence that far north convinced the British 3rd and Canadian 3rd divisions to dig in, slowing their advance in the afternoon of the 6th. Let us assume that the 21st is positioned further back, their advance units contact the British late on the 7th, with the bulk of the division in combat on the 8th.

Given this freedom of movement, the British will probably be able to reach the (north-west) outskirts of Caen late on the 6th. This progress will trigger the launch of the British 1st Airborne division, who were intended to drop to the south of Caen. The fighting on the 7th and 8th will therefore be concentrated around these drops, with the Germans attempting to destroy them before the British ground forces can reinforce. Given British superiority in numbers, air and artillery, the outcome is likely to favour them. Caen will be encircled from the east by forces moving out of the Orne bridghead, although this will be a day or two behind the action to the south and west.

Assuming that the Germans are pushed back, the British will be able to take Caen within the first week of the campaign - in OTL it took 36 days. This will allow the use of the British armoured divisions, now that the logistic hub of Caen is still in use (destroyed by bombing and fighting in OTL), and the correlation of forces should allow a fast capture of the Bourgebus Ridge, the next major geographic obstacle. If this happens, we may see British armour on the Seine shortly after.


With the German defence unseated in this fashion, the Americans will be able to break out at about the same time. Allied casualties will be lower than OTL, although the German casualties will be as well. The Falaise pocket will not occur, although smaller encirclements will be seen with German units trapped against the Seine.

I suspect that the Germans will be forced to build a new defensive line on the Seine, especially as Allied logistics will have given out at some point.


So what would be the long-term consequences?


NB: I've assumed that 21st panzer is in place to move against the British, as that's where 12th SS and Lehr were. If they're further west and are therefore committed against the US, the British will be able to move even faster.
 
Ironically, the German order of battle will be stronger. They will have the 100,000 or so men lost at Falaise, nor will they have suffered the horrendous losses of the Bocage battles (if memory serves they were loosing in excess of 2,000 men a day), the Panzer Divs will not have been frittered away in a useless fashion. So all in all a healthier situation for OB West.

This might also work better for the WAllies as well, capturing the channel ports quickly and without destructive siege battles will mean a healthier influx of supplies to a much closer frontline.

The most obvious spin off here is that there will be larger set piece battles in France, rather than the pursuit following the initial attempt to block the WAllies. This could be a good thing, large encirclements bag enough of the german forces to allow Patton or Montgomery to bounce the Rhine and perhaps end it all in time for christmas;) Alternatively, the germans get some lucky breaks versus poor generalship on the WAllies part and give them a bloody nose, followed up by a winter offensive code named Wacht Am Seine:D
 
Big Panzer battles

Definitely big spectacular panzer battles instead of weeks of grinding attrition in the Bocage.:confused:

Without the attrition in Normandy would the Germans have had enough experience of Allied airpower to learn some healthy fear of it? .

I remember reading a comment from a panzer commander "Normandy taught me what it is to be a field mouse, and live in constant fear that any visible movement will cause some terrible predatory THING to swoop down out of the sky and kill you.":eek:

Also, if the German Army in the west is destroyed in the big battles mentioned, and the allies capture the ports needed to keep supply comming, will we see a race between them and the Soviets as to who can take the most of Europe? Will the Iron Curtain be further east, this is before the deal to carve up of Europe was done, isn't it?
 
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Also, if the German Army in the west is destroyed in the big battles mentioned, and the allies capture the ports needed to keep supply comming, will we see a race between them and the Soviets as to who can take the most of Europe? Will the Iron Curtain be further east, this is before the deal to carve up of Europe was done, isn't it?
I have to wonder why the Germans don't have the ports garrisoned & ready for demolition anyhow. Or was the delay in breakout so long, & only done after the landings?

That said, I think it's inevitable the line will be further east. Destruction of forces seems to me to imply an easier time of it for the Allies. I'm a bit unclear why there wouldn't be some variety of pursuit, as the Allies push east.:confused: The Germans would appear to be at the same kind of disadvantage as OTL.
 

Cook

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Without the attrition in Normandy would the Germans have had enough experience of Allied airpower to learn some healthy fear of it?

The Germans were already well experienced with Allied airpower; the allies had been pounding anything that moved in Northwest Europe of several months and allied air interdiction of German lines of supply and movement in Italy had been continuing for more than a year before Normandy. It was Rommel’s previous experience with Allied air power that made him argue that the Panzer divisions needed to be within immediate striking distance of the beaches. It was Rundstedt, who had not directly experienced allied air attacks like Rommel had, argued for a strong central reserve. Hitler tried to compromise between the two.
 
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