Every Normandy 1944 what-if I've seen involves an improved performance by the German army/SS. So what would happen if the Allies did better?
I suggest that the POD is the reverse of the classic: Rommel wins his arguments with the Rundstedt/OKH/Hitler, leading to the Panzers in position to oppose the landings on the 6th. The 12th SS at Omaha seems to be a particular favourite, probably because this is where Rommel wanted them. In OTL one division (21st Panzer) was in place, the other two Panzer divisions were held further back as strategic reserve.
In OTL there were 5 German divisions involved on or soon after D-Day: 352nd (first combat 6-6-44) and 716th Infantry (6-6-44), 12th SS Panzer (7-6-44), Panzer Lehr (8-6-44) and 21st Panzer (6-6-44). The 21st reached the sea between Sword and Juno beaches, but fell back when the airborne drops of the 6/7th began, and both infantry divisions were pushed back with severe casualties.
So what if Rommel had failed to convince Hitler to move any divisions up to the coast? The 21st's counter-attack achieved little, but their presence that far north convinced the British 3rd and Canadian 3rd divisions to dig in, slowing their advance in the afternoon of the 6th. Let us assume that the 21st is positioned further back, their advance units contact the British late on the 7th, with the bulk of the division in combat on the 8th.
Given this freedom of movement, the British will probably be able to reach the (north-west) outskirts of Caen late on the 6th. This progress will trigger the launch of the British 1st Airborne division, who were intended to drop to the south of Caen. The fighting on the 7th and 8th will therefore be concentrated around these drops, with the Germans attempting to destroy them before the British ground forces can reinforce. Given British superiority in numbers, air and artillery, the outcome is likely to favour them. Caen will be encircled from the east by forces moving out of the Orne bridghead, although this will be a day or two behind the action to the south and west.
Assuming that the Germans are pushed back, the British will be able to take Caen within the first week of the campaign - in OTL it took 36 days. This will allow the use of the British armoured divisions, now that the logistic hub of Caen is still in use (destroyed by bombing and fighting in OTL), and the correlation of forces should allow a fast capture of the Bourgebus Ridge, the next major geographic obstacle. If this happens, we may see British armour on the Seine shortly after.
With the German defence unseated in this fashion, the Americans will be able to break out at about the same time. Allied casualties will be lower than OTL, although the German casualties will be as well. The Falaise pocket will not occur, although smaller encirclements will be seen with German units trapped against the Seine.
I suspect that the Germans will be forced to build a new defensive line on the Seine, especially as Allied logistics will have given out at some point.
So what would be the long-term consequences?
NB: I've assumed that 21st panzer is in place to move against the British, as that's where 12th SS and Lehr were. If they're further west and are therefore committed against the US, the British will be able to move even faster.
I suggest that the POD is the reverse of the classic: Rommel wins his arguments with the Rundstedt/OKH/Hitler, leading to the Panzers in position to oppose the landings on the 6th. The 12th SS at Omaha seems to be a particular favourite, probably because this is where Rommel wanted them. In OTL one division (21st Panzer) was in place, the other two Panzer divisions were held further back as strategic reserve.
In OTL there were 5 German divisions involved on or soon after D-Day: 352nd (first combat 6-6-44) and 716th Infantry (6-6-44), 12th SS Panzer (7-6-44), Panzer Lehr (8-6-44) and 21st Panzer (6-6-44). The 21st reached the sea between Sword and Juno beaches, but fell back when the airborne drops of the 6/7th began, and both infantry divisions were pushed back with severe casualties.
So what if Rommel had failed to convince Hitler to move any divisions up to the coast? The 21st's counter-attack achieved little, but their presence that far north convinced the British 3rd and Canadian 3rd divisions to dig in, slowing their advance in the afternoon of the 6th. Let us assume that the 21st is positioned further back, their advance units contact the British late on the 7th, with the bulk of the division in combat on the 8th.
Given this freedom of movement, the British will probably be able to reach the (north-west) outskirts of Caen late on the 6th. This progress will trigger the launch of the British 1st Airborne division, who were intended to drop to the south of Caen. The fighting on the 7th and 8th will therefore be concentrated around these drops, with the Germans attempting to destroy them before the British ground forces can reinforce. Given British superiority in numbers, air and artillery, the outcome is likely to favour them. Caen will be encircled from the east by forces moving out of the Orne bridghead, although this will be a day or two behind the action to the south and west.
Assuming that the Germans are pushed back, the British will be able to take Caen within the first week of the campaign - in OTL it took 36 days. This will allow the use of the British armoured divisions, now that the logistic hub of Caen is still in use (destroyed by bombing and fighting in OTL), and the correlation of forces should allow a fast capture of the Bourgebus Ridge, the next major geographic obstacle. If this happens, we may see British armour on the Seine shortly after.
With the German defence unseated in this fashion, the Americans will be able to break out at about the same time. Allied casualties will be lower than OTL, although the German casualties will be as well. The Falaise pocket will not occur, although smaller encirclements will be seen with German units trapped against the Seine.
I suspect that the Germans will be forced to build a new defensive line on the Seine, especially as Allied logistics will have given out at some point.
So what would be the long-term consequences?
NB: I've assumed that 21st panzer is in place to move against the British, as that's where 12th SS and Lehr were. If they're further west and are therefore committed against the US, the British will be able to move even faster.