The Battle for Osirak

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Opera#The_attack

En route to the target, the Israeli planes crossed the gulf of Aqaba. Unknowingly, the squadron flew directly over the yacht of King Hussein of Jordan, who was vacationing in the Gulf at the time.[58] Taking into account the location, bearing, and armament of the Israeli planes, Hussein quickly deduced the Iraqi reactor to be the most probable target. Hussein immediately contacted his government and ordered a warning to be sent to the Iraqis. However, due to a communication failure the message was never received and the Israeli planes entered Iraqi air space undetected.[51]
The scenario sounds kinda far-fetched, but WI the Iraqis had been ready for the F-16s when they crossed the border? Could they prevent the reactor's destruction? Would a failure or costly success be enough to ensure an Alignment victory in the Israeli election just a few days away?
 

Archibald

Banned
Well, the F-16 "bombers" had a solid escort of F-15s. We all know how the Eagle fared against Soviet jets - qui well, isn't it ? ;)
Even with some Iraqis interceptors in the air, the real danger would be (as usual) AA guns and/ or SAMs.
I can see some F-16 damaged by some intense AA fire and/or SAM. No way Iraqis interceptors score anything.
 
An escort of 6 F-15s protecting 8 F-16s. The Iraqis will put everything they have up in the air to intercept the squadron. The Israelis may have superior technology and training, but the Iraqis have the numbers on their home turf. The F-16 pilots, not knowing that they'd catch the Iraqis by surprise, didn't expect to all make it back alive in OTL.
 
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Aren't the Iraqis just fighting, eerh, Iran at that period ?

Yes, I'm sure that's keeping some of their fighters and bombers busy. But unless the Iranians are simultaneously over Iraqi airspace, it puts no strain on their ability to hurt the Israelis. As I just said, the Israelis themselves didn't think their escort would be enough to defend all the F-16s if the Iraqis reacted, and that was assuming they weren't warned in time and only detected the strike force near Osirak.
 
I find the claims of teh Jordaian warning interesting. I question how they were able to identify the wepons load accurately and qucikly enough (Having been overflown at low altitude by tactical jets) that they could figure out the trarget and send out a warning before the attack.

However it could be very advantagous to be able to claim 'we tried to warn you but the message didn't make it through because of a problem'

It could also be used to coverup any subtle support/assistance that had been provided by a neighbor who was concerned about a neighbor who seemed to be somewhat of a bully getting more powerful weapons (but didn't want anyone to know they had helped)
 
The source for that story is one of the Israeli pilots involved:

http://archive.frontpagemag.com/readArticle.aspx?ARTID=29258

Here is another inexplicable thing: King Hussein was vacationing in Aqaba and saw us on our way toward Iraq. He immediately phoned Amman – our intelligence picked up the whole conversation then – and reported it to them. But those idiots ignored it and didn’t do anything.
This is preceded by his revealing that they were expecting losses among the F-16s:

By the way, none of us thought – not even in the IDF General Staff – that we would all come back alive.
Are you saying that when each of you took off you said goodbye to Israel and goodbye to your life?
Absolutely. Maybe some of us would come back, but we were sure there was no way that everyone would. So as far as each of us, individually, was concerned, it was our last day on earth.​
Doesn’t that thought go through every pilot on this type of mission?
Yes, but in this case the risk was much greater. And yet things happened there that to this day we have no explanation for. For instance, according to all calculations the Iraqi radar systems were supposed to have spotted us at least 15 minutes before the bombing despite the fact that we flew at very low altitude.​
That’s why we had eight and not four F-16 fighters, because we thought for sure the Iraqis would spot us and send several MIGs to try to down us. We thought we would encounter heavy resistance.​
Don’t forget, the Iraqis were threatened by Iran too, so for sure they had their radar system and fighter MIGs on alert. We never thought we would take them by such complete surprise. But they didn’t do a thing.​

Iraq was a major Jordanian ally at the time, I doubt they wanted the strike to succeed.
 
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