A lot depends on how many US fighters intercept the force over Hawaii - sure the Zeros are better than most of these, but both peashooters and P-35's can trash the the other Japanese aircraft. Hopefully the strikes get intercepted on the way in, hit by AAA over targets, and hit on the way out. Frankly losing the peashooters and P-35s is no loss, and hopefully a significant number of pilots will bail out to fight again (this worked much in the RAF's favor during the Battle of Britain). While a US airstrike against the Kido Butai may have a high loss ratio, the effect will depend on how many Zeros are available to intercept the strike - since the Japanese do not have radar you'll have some on CAP but the rest need to be launched when the incoming raid is spotted. I would expect any raid or raids on the Kido Butai to do some damage, and since the number of Japanese aircraft available for a counterstrike will certainly be limited, IMHO Yamamoto will head home rather than try and find the US carriers. Staying around will expose his force to more land based attacks, and potential for a surface engagement where he will be outnumbered.
The Japanese can run away faster than the battle fleet can catch them especially given they have a lead. While Halsey may order the one strike, with the losses the USN will take and the fact that PH has been hit and there is some damage there, chasing after a Japanese force larger than his without proper support arranged is too risky so my bet is that there is one carrier strike on the Japanese (max) and maybe one or two land based strikes, which given the effectiveness of high altitude bombing against ships will be unlikely to inflict significant damage.
Yamamoto gambled and lost, like a good poker player he knows when to fold his hand and once he has recovered his planes he will start moving away from Hawaii. All he knows is that the carriers were not at Pearl, he has no idea where they are and certainly is not about to go looking for them.
The Japanese can run away faster than the battle fleet can catch them especially given they have a lead. While Halsey may order the one strike, with the losses the USN will take and the fact that PH has been hit and there is some damage there, chasing after a Japanese force larger than his without proper support arranged is too risky so my bet is that there is one carrier strike on the Japanese (max) and maybe one or two land based strikes, which given the effectiveness of high altitude bombing against ships will be unlikely to inflict significant damage.
Yamamoto gambled and lost, like a good poker player he knows when to fold his hand and once he has recovered his planes he will start moving away from Hawaii. All he knows is that the carriers were not at Pearl, he has no idea where they are and certainly is not about to go looking for them.
