The Battle at Dawn: The first battle between the United States and Japan December 7-10, 1941

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Two carriers are not gonna sink the entire Kido Butai.

True but back them up with Midway and Pearl's airpower and perhaps a mad dash by some cruisers/DD's and they could get at least a few of them. All they need to do is sink a max of two and its a disaster for Japan. There was a pair of CL's and some DD's already heading north IIRC and they could run into the outrunners of the Kido Butai, and they were Brooklyn class CL's which are heavy cruisers by anyone's standards and 15 x 6-inch guns will rip apart anything the IJN has save their BC's.
 
Admiral Richardson gets a posthumous Medal of Honor..... he was killed when dive bombers hit his headquarters in the 2nd Wave. [0]

General Harmon will get a lot of credit, as will General McConnell, Admiral Bloch and Admiral Bellenger

The US Army in the Philippines is going to come off very badly in comparison, particularly the commanders[1]

[0] And the alt-alternatehistory site will have timelines about "What if Richardson wasn't in command at Pearl Harbor?"

[1] MacArthur and his cronies won't get recalled in disgrace because
  1. the deleterious effect it would have on civilian morale in acknowleging an ignominious defeat, and
  2. it would cast serious aspersions on the Army's command structure, promotion policies, and its ability to evaluate its officer corps.
IMHO, MacArthur will be recalled to CONUS, lauded for his 'heroic efforts with inadequate resources[2],' given a medal of some kind (not The Medal), then given some kind of training command and told rather strongly to keep his mouth shut. His cronies just get shuffled into dead-end jobs and invited to resign.

[2] This can't be emphasized too strongly without pissing off the politicians who didn't vote for defense increases.
 
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Yeah, while I don't see MacArthur getting kicked out, I don't see him becoming the supreme commander of the Pacific theater, either.

I can see the Kido Butai getting a bloody nose here...
 
If anyone ever read about it, when the japanese navy conducted war games in August of 1941, for the attack on Pearl Harbor, the results were the loss of two to three carriers and half of their strike aircraft.
 
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Driftless

Donor
Yeah, while I don't see MacArthur getting kicked out, I don't see him becoming the supreme commander of the Pacific theater, either.

I disagree on Mac's status, based on the hard fight the Navy & USAAC have given the Japanese over Hawaii - with more to come. The country would have several big time heroes from a morale standpoint. In that light, I think if the Philippines goes badly(using OTL mis-judgements as the benchmark), Mac becomes very expendable - even scapegoat material - and he then gets a quick hook in favor of Wainwright. IF Mac does get out, he's given the Antarctic training command - far away from any press. Even with much greater damage done to the Kido Butai in this fight, the USN surface navy has taken a serious pounding, and isn't in good shape to cross the Pacific to relieve the Philippines. I would think General Marshall and Admiral King will let the President know to prepare Congress and the public for the eventual loss of the Philippines.
 
OTL the "gallant defense of Bataan" was the only semibright light in the first few months of the war. This was in spite of the massive way in which Mac screwed up the defense of the PI and made it much worse than it had to be. ITTL PH has not been an unmitigated disaster, at least up to now it has been a victory in the air for the USA and the losses on the ground and for the USN much less than OTL and really not all that bad considering strategic surprise and the forces thrown against them. I expect there will be some sort of attack on the KB, which will possibly sink or damage a carrier or two as well as some other vessels. Since the main part of the US fleet can't catch the KB these losses may be inflicted by a combination of land/naval aircraft from various land bases and the carriers and lighter US fleet units. Every air loss hurts the Japanese more than the Americans, and the KB will not be able to hit the US carriers while they are running away and staying is not an option.

Compared to what has already happened at PH, and what I expect will happen, the performance of MacArthur will look horrible. His aircraft caught on the ground hours (7 I think) after learning of PH, no attack on Formosa, failing to adequate supply Bataan per the well defined plan and so forth. Compared to the defenders of PH who had 30-45 minutes of notice about the attack but who had properly preparedand responded as best they could, MacArthur comes off very badly. The USA now has heroes, pilots, sailors and the commanders at PH (one dead in the defense) and so the need for MacArthur for morale is gone. He is now part of the peacetime deadwood that needs to be cleaned out. He and his senior staff such as Willoughby and Sutherland need to be put behind desks in paperwork control, designing the defenses of Minneapolis against an invasion up the Mississippi and so forth. Since MacArthur was brought out of retirement he can be returned there easily although keeping him on duty in some safe place he can be muzzled (somewhat). Perhaps training troops in Australia, but not in command of actual troops...
 
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With the general increase in readiness, will Bugout Doug and company be as unprepared? I'd think so, if he hadn't been completely surprised so long after Pearl Harbor got hit in OTL.
Remember, everything changes, and that's what makes this timeline strong. (Though Mac might not change...)

Commanding the coast defense guns in Antarctica sounds about right for him.
 
If anyone ever read about it, when the japanese navy conducted war games in August of 1941, for the attack on Pearl Harbor, the results were the loss of two to three carriers and half of their strike aircraft.

and that will color their thinking about how this has gone so far

from their perspective they have wrecked the primary (battleships) core of the Pacific Fleet. 6 are known to be heavily damaged or sunk (based on strike reports and photographs taken by them during the raid), several cruisers wrecked or sunk, and while Genda wanted the carriers, Yamamoto and Nagumo wanted the battleships and cruisers (the traditional heart of the fleet)

and they did it with their scouting arm, not what the Japanese consider the core of their fleet.. their battleships

Remember folks, Yamamoto dragged nearly every battleship int he IJN to Midway assuming he was going to win his crushing decisive victory with his surface forces. It took a while for the lesson to sink in for the Japanese that aviation and submarines were going to be the decisive weapons of the Pacific War. They never really got the submarine warfare lesson.
 
Well things will prove 'interesting' if any US subs can get in some shots on IJN ships. Even with faulty torpedoes, they should get in some hits. Maybe even a sunk carrier or battleship.

There may well be a cat and mouse between the various carrier groups should a Japanese carrier or two be damaged and not able to keep up with the rest of the strike force.

How much could the Japanese deck park planes should some of the Japanese carriers be sunk but the surviving planes be aloft to land on another?
 
Remember folks, Yamamoto dragged nearly every battleship int he IJN to Midway assuming he was going to win his crushing decisive victory with his surface forces. It took a while for the lesson to sink in for the Japanese that aviation and submarines were going to be the decisive weapons of the Pacific War. They never really got the submarine warfare lesson.
ISTR reading that Yamamoto made use of the air arm but he contiued to be a battleship man. The "decisive battle" would be the clash of the battleships.
 
Pacific Fleet Post Raid
US Navy Hawaiian area December 7, 1941 1100 Hours
Task Force 9 Picket force (all are at least 150-200 miles from Striking Force to northwest, west, or northeast)(submarines are making best speed to block the likely Japanese return heading either to the north or west)(surface ships are moving to last position of the Gamble)
Destroyer minelayers Gamble (sunk) , Ramsey, Montgomery, Pruitt, Tracy

submarines S-18, S-23, S-34, Gudgeon, Plunger, Tambor, Thresher

Scouting Force (Halsey)
Task Force 2 (Brown) carrier Lexington (w 37 Dauntless dive bombers, 18 Devastator torpedo bombers, 17 Buffalo fighters), heavy cruisers Chicago, Portland, Astoria, destroyers Porter, Drayton, Flusser, Lamson, Mahan, Cummings,

Task Force 4 (Fletcher) carrier Yorktown (36 Dauntless dive bombers, 18 Devastator torpedo bombers, 18 Wildcat fighters)heavy cruisers Minnapolis, Indianapolis, light cruisers Helena, Phoenix destroyers Farragut, Aylwin, Monaghan, Tucker, Ellet, Blach, Case (several of these ships meet up with the Yorktown just after dawn on December 8 after a high speed run from Pearl Harbor)

Task Force 3 (Halsey) carrier Enterprise (37 Dauntless dive bombers, 18 Vindicator Dive bombers,18 Devastator torpedo bombers, 14 Wildcat fighters), heavy cruisers Northampton, Chester, Salt Lake City, destroyers Maury, Craven, Gridley, McCall, Dunlap, Benham, Fanning,

Task Force 8 destroyer minesweepers Chandler, Hovey, Boggs, Lamberton, fleet oilers Platte, Tippacanoe, Santee, Sangamon

The Scouting Force is refueling 0730 hours – 1350 hours

Other Forces
French Frigate Shoals
Passing nearby: (returning from Midway) Seaplane Tender Wright (civilians aboard), Tranport Burrows (en route to Wake Island),

station: small seaplane tender Swan, Destroyer minelayer Sicard, patrol gunboat Sacramento

Kure: small seaplane tender Avocet, destroyer minelayer Breese,

(returns to Pearl Harbor afternoon December 7) California (3 bomb hits amidships, serious fires, secondary armament and fire control wrecked)

Task Force 1 (Anderson) (Midway Reinforcement Force)(returned to Pearl Harbor afternoon December 7, return to sea morning of December 9 after taking on personnel, cargo, stores and refueling)
battleships Maryland, West Virginia seaplane tenders Tangiers, Curtis, Hulbert stores ship Antares destroyers MacDonough, Phelps, Chew, Allen, Henley, Patterson, Ralph Talbot,

In port Pearl Harbor
110 Dock: battleships Oklahoma (sunk 8 torpedo hits, 2 in stern, part of stern missing, 5 amidships, 1 removed much of the bow, serious casualties, abandoned, on fire, serious oil fire covering much of this part of the harbor)
Fleet Target ship Utah (2 torpedo hits, sunk, abandoned)
submarine Cachelot (sunk by 1 torpedo, abandoned)(scrapped in place in 1942)

Drydock: battleship Pennyslvania (3 x 500 pound bomb hits, severe fire damage amidships wrecking 6 inch secondary 5 inch mounts), destroyers Cassin, Downes (both destroyers are constructive total losses due to multiple bomb hits, magazine explosions, fire damage)
Floating drydock: destroyer Shaw

Naval Station docks: heavy cruisers San Francisco (2 x 500 pound bomb hits, severe fire gutted hanger deck and aft superstructure, several 5 inch AA guns ruined), New Orleans (broken plates and some flooding from 2 x 500 pound bomb near misses, fantail, rudder, starboard screw need major repairs or replacement from 500 pound bomb hit) light cruisers St Louis (2 x 500 pound bomb hits, steering compartment wrecked, forward boiler room wrecked, severe fire damage amidships), Honolulu (2 x 500 pound bomb hits, B turret wrecked, 1 5 inch turret wrecked, forward 6 inch magazine flooded, fire damage amidships and forward superstructure),
destroyers Jarvis, Mugford, Bagley, Cummings, minesweeper Greebe, destroyer minesweeper Trever, Zane, Perry Wasmuth, destroyer minelayer Breese,
oiler Ramapo (severe fire damage from 1x 500 pound bomb hit),
repair ship Argonne, stores ship Rigel,

Southeast Loch (submarine base) docks: submarine tender Pelias, rescue ship Widgeon, repair ship Sumner, stores ship Castor, submarines Narwhal, Dolphin, Tautog,

Middle loch: repair ship Medusa, hospital ship Solace

Battleship Row
battleship Nevada (inboard)(2 torpedo hits, steering compartments, 2 boiler rooms flooded)(3 AP bomb hits, galley destroyed, 2 damage control teams wiped out, more damage to boilers, A turret penetrating hit and out of action)(fires are under control but has settled on the bottom),

destroyer Dobbin (outboard of Nevada)(serious flooding engineering spaces from concussion from Nevada torpedo hits)(1 AP bomb hit, detonated below the ship, keel broken, engineering spaces flooded)(sunk and being abandoned)

battleship Arizona (inboard)(1 torpedo hit, 3 AP bomb hits, forward magazine detonation, on fire, abandoned and sunk)
Repair ship Vestal (outboard) (1 torpedo hit, engineering spaces flooded)(flooded forward hold from Arizona torpedo hit, 1 damaging near miss and 2 AP hits that were duds, ship has sunk, severe fires from Arizona detonation, serious casualties from that and hits it has suffered, being abandoned)
battleship Tennessee (inboard)(D turret has lost a 14 inch gun to a AP dud, 1 AP hit has flooded the steering compartment)(fires from flaming debris from Hull and Arizona, being taken under tow by harbor tugs to move her from flaming oil from Arizona)
destroyer Hull (outboard) (destroyed by 1 torpedo hit which caused a detonation that broke her in two. Both halves are on fire and have sunk preventing magazine explosions. Severe casualties)

East Loch
destroyer tender: Whitney, minelayer Oglala, Destroyer Selfridge (fighting fire amidships from plane crash) oiler Neosho (three quarters of ship on fire, has been abandoned)

harbor entrance
destroyers Blue, Ward, Helm, Dewey, Worden, 4 minesweepers, 6 PT boats,

seaplane tender Thornton ( 2 torpedo hits from midget submarine, heavy casualties, beached off Hospital Point

Post attack fates of ships hit in the attack
Arizona broke in two as a result of the detonation of its magazine and can not be raised. Much of the steel above the deck level is taken off over the course of the war and recycled, while the guns end up assigned to the US Army Coast Defense branch. Her crew suffers the worst casualties numerically during the attack.

Oklahoma had an entire side of the vessel ripped open by 5 torpedo hits amidships and avoided rolling over only by heroic damage control work and ruthless counterflooding as well hits that followed that removed part of her stern and bow (essentially blowing the forward 20 feet of the bow completely apart) which opened up the starboard side to flooding (as did the removal of a substantial part of the stern). Basically enough water flooded in from the front and back of the ship, along with counterflooding, to allow her to sink with a severe list but not roll over. This rate of flooding was increased further by a torpedo that went into a hole created by a previous torpedo and blew out not only several compartments but vented the port side to flooding as well. Nearly 500 men die aboard her in flooded compartments or from the explosions of torpedoes. The second oldest battleship in the Pacific Fleet, and over 25 years old, she is considered a constructive total loss and not worth repairing. However she does take up valuable space at the 110 Dock, and so is refloated in a herculean effort in July 1942, and then towed out to sea and scuttled with honors. Over 100 bodies are discovered in compartments when she was pumped out and those men are buried with many of their crewmates at Honolulu National Cemetary. Her guns also end up with Army Coast Defense but are never used however some are used on other old battleships to replace damaged guns or guns worn out later.

Nevada is raised in May 1942, steams to Bremerton Naval Yard for repairs and modernization, and rejoins the fleet January 1943. Over 100 men were killed aboard her during the attack.

Pennsylvania is sent to Bremerton Naval Yard for repairs and modernization in January 1942, once the wreckage of the Cassin and Downes are removed and the dry dock is repaired sufficiently to return to service. Indeed the Dry Dock is the first priority of repair efforts. Two of the new Fletcher class destroyers get the names Cassin and Downes.

California
is sent to Mare Island Naval Yard for repairs and modernization, rejoining the fleet in May 1942. Over 50 are killed during the attack off Oahu.

Tennessee is sent to Bremerton Naval Yard for repairs and modernization with the help of fleet tugs in late December 1941. She is then sent to Mare Island for further modernization and rejoins the Fleet in June 1942. Almost 200 were killed aboard her, mostly exposed personnel killed by the blasts and debris spread by the detonation of a destroyer alongside of her and a battleship directly astern of her.

The heavy cruiser San Francisco is sent to Mare Island in December 1941 and rejoins the fleet in February 1942 after modernization. Over 100 die aboard her during the attack.

The heavy cruiser New Orleans is towed to East Loch until the drydock is available again and then gets a new rudder and new screws and is sent to Bremerton for repairs and modernization. She rejoins the fleet in June 1942 and suffered 67 dead during the attack.

The light cruisers Honolulu and St Louis were high priority ships, as they are modern highly capable light cruisers. Both are given sufficient repairs at Pearl Harbor to send them to Bremerton in January 1942, and both rejoin the fleet in April 1942. Between them over 150 are killed.

The Vestal, Neosho, and Utah are all considered constructive total losses. The Vestal and Utah are raised, and along with the Neosho (which did not sink but simply was burned out) are towed out to sea and scuttled as not worth the risk of towing to the West Coast to be scrapped. Over 250 die aboard these three ships. The wreckage of the Hull, Thornton, and Dobbin are also raised, as the two destroyers are in valuable anchorages and the Thornton is too close to the channel for comfort, and they also are towed out to sea for scuttling. The Hull took the highest percentage casualties of the day, with only 14 of her crew of 160 man crew surviving the explosion of her magazine. Another 100 men died aboard the other two ships.

The Selfridge is quickly repaired and rejoins the fleet in February 1942 and suffered the loss of 23 dead during the attack.. The fleet oiler Ramapo rejoins the fleet soon after in March 1942, with 13 of her crew buried at Honolulu National Cemetary.

Other naval casualties from strafing, stray bombs and plane crashes number over 100.

Total Navy dead (including those killed on the Gamble) total 2357
 
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just a couple of nits....re Pennsylvania in dry dock, I presume you mean 6 each 5 inch guns of the secondary battery; the Army had a Coast Artillery Corps (CAC) who manned the coast defenses and the Anti-Aircraft Artillery
 
just a couple of nits....re Pennsylvania in dry dock, I presume you mean 6 each 5 inch guns of the secondary battery; the Army had a Coast Artillery Corps (CAC) who manned the coast defenses and the Anti-Aircraft Artillery

yes, basically all of those hits amidships damaged or wrecked her secondary armament and it will need to be replaced

All of the refitted and modernized ships will end up with 5 inch /38s in turrets, just like the restored Nevada and West Virginia did in OTL
 
Overall a higher body count for the US, but not outrageously. More ships sunk or ctl, but some are older ships, so new construction will soon make up the losses. The US will be speeding up new builds, and it will prove interesting if TTL will change the priorities over OTL.

There are still more days to go before the series of engagements are over.

Thanks for the breakdown GB and filling us in on the fates on these ships.

I look forward to the losses of planes on both sides when you have time. Thanks for a late night Christmas Treat.
 
yes, basically all of those hits amidships damaged or wrecked her secondary armament and it will need to be replaced

All of the refitted and modernized ships will end up with 5 inch /38s in turrets, just like the restored Nevada and West Virginia did in OTL

OTL, Pennsylvania got the dual 5 inch 38 mounts as well...interesting note per Wikipedia, she also got a couple of 14 inch guns off of Oklahoma during a wartime refit
 
Of course, a torpedo track could lead to evasive maneuvers that cost fuel...

Or some evasive steering where some IJN ships run into one another. Get some Long Lances getting set off by the damage and then...BOOM!
 
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