The Austrian Empire

Is there any way - short of ASB intervention - to make the Austrian empire a Great Power in the modern era? Hungary doesn't necessarily have to come along for the ride, and Austria doesn't necessarily have to remain a Great Power for the whole of 1918-2018.
 

kernals12

Banned
Is there any way - short of ASB intervention - to make the Austrian empire a Great Power in the modern era? Hungary doesn't necessarily have to come along for the ride, and Austria doesn't necessarily have to remain a Great Power for the whole of 1918-2018.
I really doubt it. All those different ethnic groups would be a tinder box. If you avoided WW1, you'd probably end up with something like what happened in 1990s Yugoslavia. In my TL, I had Austria Hungary invade Serbia without any of the great powers getting involved, and it turns into something like OTL Vietnam which leads to unrest and ultimately civil war.
 
Austrian Empire might survive if Central Powers win but it hardly can be more than local power. Hungary probably secede from the empire.
 
A communist revolution might do it. Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union were both multi ethnic "empires" united by Communism. If after Austria-Hungary collapses at the end of world war 1 it's forcibly united by communists the same way the Russian Empire was after it's collapse, you could get a continuation of the Austrian Empire.
 
What's the PoD here? If it's pre-WW1, it's far, far easier. Post-WW1, I would argue, is impossible. The 1919 collapse was simply far too destructive.

Also, you can't have Austria as a great power without Hungary unless you have something significant to compensate. With a pre-WW1 PoD, avoiding or winning WW1, even better you somehow lower the body count of 1914 (better leadership would do absolute wonders here) is a necessity and not inconceivable.

Eventually, something is going to happen with Hungary, but not what people night expect. While Hungary's economy grew massively after 1867, there were serious issues that were only dealt with in the 1920s when everything collapsed: The countryside is very poor, overcrowded, and the land inefficiently used and dominated by the Magnates. Speaking of the Magnates, there were serious issues within the Hungarian government: It was practically an oligarchy. Only an absolutely tiny portion of the population had suffrage (and I think it was still weighed, even!) and political power was very much in the hands of the Magnates. For example, iOTL during the war, there were serious protests to expand suffrage and at least include veterans, and there was severe resistance in the government. I believe suffrage law was only reformed after the collapse iOTL, and that was after a revolution, several coups, foreign invasions and a very, very crippling treaty.

These issues are, of course, far from insurmountable and there is plenty of potential for reforms if the war is avoided or won. Either way, my point is that unlike what @Lalli said, Hungary is very unlikely to secede unless Vienna very much messes up. I would argue that Hungary will have a revolution before that can even happen. It was far too advantageous for the Hungarians to stay within the Monarchy. If anything, Vienna will have a good chance at reeling them back in if Hungary finds itself unable to solve their issues (and considering how the Magnates historically dealt with issues, this is easy to believe).

Of course, this is all implying that the gents and ladies in Vienna don't ruin everything and make terrible decisions like trying to centralise everything, insult the Hungarians and generally deal poorly with dissent and minorities. Again, not too hard to believe either.

Anyways, without the war or the army surviving it, Austria[-Hungary] has great potential to recover and resume its impressive 1867-1914 growth or crash and burn like iOTL.
 
A communist revolution might do it. Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union were both multi ethnic "empires" united by Communism. If after Austria-Hungary collapses at the end of world war 1 it's forcibly united by communists the same way the Russian Empire was after it's collapse, you could get a continuation of the Austrian Empire.

Soviet Union based to remnants of Russian Empire and Yugoslavia was result of pan-slavism but existence of Austro-Hungarian empire based only to Habsburgs. Communists can't keep that as one nation when all nationalities demand liberty. When Habsburgs are removed, it is game over for the empire. Nationalism was strong in the empire even before WW1 so it would be impossible mission for Communists keep that all together.
 
What's the PoD here? If it's pre-WW1, it's far, far easier. Post-WW1, I would argue, is impossible. The 1919 collapse was simply far too destructive.

Also, you can't have Austria as a great power without Hungary unless you have something significant to compensate. With a pre-WW1 PoD, avoiding or winning WW1, even better you somehow lower the body count of 1914 (better leadership would do absolute wonders here) is a necessity and not inconceivable.

Eventually, something is going to happen with Hungary, but not what people night expect. While Hungary's economy grew massively after 1867, there were serious issues that were only dealt with in the 1920s when everything collapsed: The countryside is very poor, overcrowded, and the land inefficiently used and dominated by the Magnates. Speaking of the Magnates, there were serious issues within the Hungarian government: It was practically an oligarchy. Only an absolutely tiny portion of the population had suffrage (and I think it was still weighed, even!) and political power was very much in the hands of the Magnates. For example, iOTL during the war, there were serious protests to expand suffrage and at least include veterans, and there was severe resistance in the government. I believe suffrage law was only reformed after the collapse iOTL, and that was after a revolution, several coups, foreign invasions and a very, very crippling treaty.

These issues are, of course, far from insurmountable and there is plenty of potential for reforms if the war is avoided or won. Either way, my point is that unlike what @Lalli said, Hungary is very unlikely to secede unless Vienna very much messes up. I would argue that Hungary will have a revolution before that can even happen. It was far too advantageous for the Hungarians to stay within the Monarchy. If anything, Vienna will have a good chance at reeling them back in if Hungary finds itself unable to solve their issues (and considering how the Magnates historically dealt with issues, this is easy to believe).

Of course, this is all implying that the gents and ladies in Vienna don't ruin everything and make terrible decisions like trying to centralise everything, insult the Hungarians and generally deal poorly with dissent and minorities. Again, not too hard to believe either.

Anyways, without the war or the army surviving it, Austria[-Hungary] has great potential to recover and resume its impressive 1867-1914 growth or crash and burn like iOTL.

Im pretty sure that Hungary was working on a law widening the suffrage before the war - I dont know what would have come from it if WWI is delayed or avoided alogether. But im pretty sure that what they wanted to do was widining the suffrage in a way that still ensured that only the min number of seats would go to the minorities and it wouldnt have been an universal suffrage. I also think that you are too critical toward the hungarian magnates. The generation before WWI was pretty horrible however the 1848 generation was a great bunch. AFAIK they were the only nobles ever to vote for the dissolution of serfdom and feudalism. They also gave more land to the peasents than the russians or prussians did when they ended serfdorm. My point is they had their moments. I also dont remember any signs that the national minorities in Hungary were on the werge of a revolution before WWI.
 
Im pretty sure that Hungary was working on a law widening the suffrage before the war - I dont know what would have come from it if WWI is delayed or avoided alogether. But im pretty sure that what they wanted to do was widining the suffrage in a way that still ensured that only the min number of seats would go to the minorities and it wouldnt have been an universal suffrage. I also think that you are too critical toward the hungarian magnates. The generation before WWI was pretty horrible however the 1848 generation was a great bunch. AFAIK they were the only nobles ever to vote for the dissolution of serfdom and feudalism. They also gave more land to the peasents than the russians or prussians did when they ended serfdorm. My point is they had their moments. I also dont remember any signs that the national minorities in Hungary were on the werge of a revolution before WWI.
Oh, don't get me wrong, the Magnates definitely had their moments and '48 is definitely a great example, but I skipped them over since this is post-1900. Altgough that reminds me that Hungary would've been in much better shape if they had actually enforced the Law on Minorities.

As for minorities on the verge of revolution, you are quite correct, but there was serious dissent in Croatia and Bohemia (the Croats were getting quite tired of Budapest's meddling; the flag burning incident in 1895, while in Bohemia the debate on bilingualism led to tensions between German and Czech-speakers), but the war put a stop to that for a few years.
 
Oh, don't get me wrong, the Magnates definitely had their moments and '48 is definitely a great example, but I skipped them over since this is post-1900. Altgough that reminds me that Hungary would've been in much better shape if they had actually enforced the Law on Minorities.

As for minorities on the verge of revolution, you are quite correct, but there was serious dissent in Croatia and Bohemia (the Croats were getting quite tired of Budapest's meddling; the flag burning incident in 1895, while in Bohemia the debate on bilingualism led to tensions between German and Czech-speakers), but the war put a stop to that for a few years.

The Croation situation was one spectacular example of idiocy especially under Khuen-Héderváry. Bohemia was the another big problem however thats on the Austrian side and can hardly be blamed on the hungarian magnates. I personally blame that one on the czech nationalits. You are right about enforcing the law on minorities however things were moving on another direction. See the lex Apponyi of 1907. But AFAIK the hungarian elit had the situation in hand before the war. Aside from Croatia the only ones that presented them with a real problem were the romanians in Transylvania. Thats why Im willing to doubt the idea that they were incapable of change and to adapt. They were never really tested. I think that before the war there was no real pressure on them. I would have been very interested to see how they react if the war is avoided and there was actual mounting pressure from the national minorities and maybe Austria/the Monarch to change the existing system.
 
The Croation situation was one spectacular example of idiocy especially under Khuen-Héderváry. Bohemia was the another big problem however thats on the Austrian side and can hardly be blamed on the hungarian magnates. I personally blame that one on the czech nationalits. You are right about enforcing the law on minorities however things were moving on another direction. See the lex Apponyi of 1907. But AFAIK the hungarian elit had the situation in hand before the war. Aside from Croatia the only ones that presented them with a real problem were the romanians in Transylvania. Thats why Im willing to doubt the idea that they were incapable of change and to adapt. They were never really tested. I think that before the war there was no real pressure on them. I would have been very interested to see how they react if the war is avoided and there was actual mounting pressure from the national minorities and maybe Austria/the Monarch to change the existing system.
You're very much correct. I should have said that the situation had calmed down before the war, but there was still the Croat-Serb Coalition winning election after election, but they were mostly autonomists, so that isn't an existential problem for A-H. Just a pain in the ass for Khuen-Héderváry-type idiots. speaking of which, the Apponyi laws were a big mistake, too.

And yeah, I brought up Bohemia as for Austria-Hungary in general. The Magnates had nothing to do with that, but I personally put the blame on German nationalists (esp. Outside of Bohemia) since the Czechs, if I remember correctly, were the ones to support bilingualism. Am I wrong there?

Transylvania is pretty much a whole matter of its own. I'll definitely agree that the Magnates weren't entirely incapable of change; pragmatism would likely lead the way in the end. However, you are also quite right that the Magnates really were untested. Then again, I would argue that this made them overconfident and they suppressed a serious amount of dissent and opposition regardless if it was revolutionary or not.
 

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