Not a chance Hitler will surrender. So either a third bomb falls on Berlin and wipes out the Nazi leadership, causing a power vacuum which would likely lead to open civil war perhaps between the Heer and SS as different factions start competing for power, or Hitler is overthrown to prevent the third bomb dropping.
One critical concern with choosing the target: It's essential that the plane will not get blown out of the sky en route.
In the skies over Germany, that's not certain. The Luftwafffe is weakened severely, but after bomb 1, any B-29 will be swarmedby anything that can fly.
Having to stop every 350mph plane flying at 34,000 feet is easier said than done.
And the Germans wouldn't know that it took a B-29 to deliver that bomb, so would worry about every other bomber after the first bucket of Instant Sunshine gets delivered.
Listening to the Farm Hall transcripts, the German Atomic scientists were gobsmacked on hearing the news: they thought it impossible for a bomb to be small enough to be dropped
The affect of nuclear bomb dropped on German city will not be as dramatic and deadly as bomb dropped on Japanese city. As had been pointed out in other threads before the Japanese cities constructed mainly of wood vs German cities constructed of stone would have a different destruction pattern and extent of destruction with German cities requiring 3 bombs to get same destruction as 1 bomb in Japanese city.
But would learning about the feasibility of an atomic bomb a year earlier mean bomb production would begin a year earlier?
After the U.S. entered the war there were basically unlimited funds and resources allocated to the Manhattan Project. Learning that it was possible to build a deployable atomic bomb in 1940 might
raise interest and increase funding to the nascent Manhattan project by a limited amount. But to actually succeed the project will still require the 1942 and later funding levels.
I think at best the atomic bomb would be ready only a month or two earlier then OTL.
At least a great amount of scientists would be recruited to the project earlier, speeding theoretical work. As the Axis would be doing seemingly great in 1941 and 1942, might this lead to even more massive spending than OTL as it would seem that Germany and Japan might have their own projects too?
If the plane that dropped it was recognized as a B-29--the ultimate heavy bomber--then B-29's would probably be swarmed.
By 1944 those problems had been sorted out.Considering how the aim was in regards to hitting the correct cities there is no chance the RAF tries it at night. Nuking Switzerland or Sweden is not a good PR move
The best target for the initial mission might be Hamburg, as it would minimize the ingress route.
The cost of stopping these planes would be large.
I could imagine too that each bomb would be packed with some self destruct mechanism just in case.
No you don't waste an Abomb on a city that's already been bombed back to the stone age, you want something relatively undamaged. This is as much an experiment as a military operation and the scientists want data to analyse. With allied armies in France, Italy and Greece there are many more safe approach routes than just over the North Sea.
If an Alert is called for every single plane flying overhead, people would be in and out of shelters constantly: nothing could ever get done
I understand that Germany was the original projected target but I still just can’t see this happening.
In the Tim e period in question the war in Europe was well in hand. And some folks figured they would be in Germany within 4 months.
But the Situation in the Pacific was much nastier. So why would the US government say. I know let’s use this ultimate weapon on in the theater that we are doing the best in?
I understand that Germany was the original projected target but I still just can’t see this happening.
In the Tim e period in question the war in Europe was well in hand. And some folks figured they would be in Germany within 4 months.
But the Situation in the Pacific was much nastier. So why would the US government say. I know let’s use this ultimate weapon on in the theater that we are doing the best in?
I understand that Germany was the original projected target but I still just can’t see this happening.
In the Tim e period in question the war in Europe was well in hand. And some folks figured they would be in Germany within 4 months.
But the Situation in the Pacific was much nastier. So why would the US government say. I know let’s use this ultimate weapon on in the theater that we are doing the best in?
If A-bomb is coming online, I would expect some cities which were bombed in OTL to be saved as special targets well in time, just as in case of Japan in OTL. Operation Gomorrah could be on some other city. Of course there might be better candidates as well.
That's almost a whole new aircraftIf the bomb will be ready a year early, might a special purpose Lancaster variant be thrown together? Add a couple more engines (either outboard of the existing ones, with a slightly lengthened wing, or mounted in parallel with Pusher props), and a pressurized cockpit?
Vs what it got for Tokyo, far worse than any other raid in history, but almost forgotten because it was soon overshadowed?So it's Dresden a year early, and the USAAF gets the grief for the next seventy years!
There is the chance that the atomic bomb won’t be used right away. .
If the bomb will be ready a year early, might a special purpose Lancaster variant be thrown together? Add a couple more engines (either outboard of the existing ones, with a slightly lengthened wing, or mounted in parallel with Pusher props), and a pressurized cockpit?