The atomic bomb operational

In July 1940, the British scientist determined that a practical atomic bomb could be built. From then on little happens on the atomic bomb project till August 1941 when an Australian Oliphant went to the US to find out why little was happening and he discovers that the information had not reached many of the American physicists so he informed them on the potential of an atomic bomb. Only after that does the atomic bomb project starts to move.

So we have almost a year lost, what if it was not lost?

One year earlier than in the OTL on 6 August 1944, a Boeing B-29 Superfortress of the 393d Bombardment Squadron lifted off. A Germany city is hit.

Probably the first to pick up that something is wrong in Berlin would be the telephone operators. A short time later reports would start filtering into Berlin of the devastation and that it was caused by one bomber dropping one bomb. A short time later over the airwaves, in Berlin, they hear reports of speeches by the Allied leadership that a nuclear weapon was used. Soon the NAZI physicists confirm that an atomic bomb was dropped. Three days later another atomic bomb is dropped over a different German city. In total, an estimated 129,000–226,000 Germans, most of who are civilians have been killed by this weapon. Word starts to spread through the Reich.

German intelligence experts, reports that it is quite likely that Berlin will be the next target.

What happens now?
 
Not a chance Hitler will surrender. So either a third bomb falls on Berlin and wipes out the Nazi leadership, causing a power vacuum which would likely lead to open civil war perhaps between the Heer and SS as different factions start competing for power, or Hitler is overthrown to prevent the third bomb dropping.
 
The B-29 only came into service on the 8th May 1944, and the Pacific had priority due to the plane's range. Therefore, the bomb would probably he dropped by a modified Lancaster. If FDR is really insistent on a US plane, then a B-29 Squadron would be rerouted, which would take town and perhaps cause the Pacific War to last longer. I don't know if the B-24 was capable of dropping the bomb.
 

DougM

Donor
But WOULD the bomb drop on Germany in 1944? Or would the US use it on some Japanese target? As much as modern America/ modern history put Germany as the main target of the war and we had a Germany First policy ost in the US viewed the country that attacked the US as the prime focus.
The only reason Europe First worked was that it was obvious that it would take a few years to develop the ships and aircraft that would be needed in the Pacific but tha equipment needed in Europe was more readily available. And more importantly the US never realy felt in danger but obviously England was in a bad place (And So was the USSR not that the average America really cared) so it was a bit more urgent to go after Germany/Europe.
This is made more biased against Germany over Japan because a disproportionate number of historians /authors on the war were / are English so the understandably view the European theater as more important.
But in 44 we had already landed on the continent and had pretty much all the troops and equipment that was needed in place in England/Europe. And it was pretty much a given (as much as war can be) that Germany was going to go down. If Hitler wasn’t insane he probably would have been looking for a way out and his government looking to toss him out and negotiate a piece treaty.

But in the Pacific we were still looking at a lot of very nasty invasions and things were not going as well. So if the B29 is in range of any valid target I suspect that the bomb will go that way.
 
The B-29 only came into service on the 8th May 1944
35bfuog.jpg

YB-29 at Royal Air Force Glatton: 10 miles north of Huntingdon, Cambridgeshire, England

A visit to get the Nazis to think the B-29 was going to be deployed in the UK
 
Considering how the aim was in regards to hitting the correct cities there is no chance the RAF tries it at night. Nuking Switzerland or Sweden is not a good PR move
 
Considering how the aim was in regards to hitting the correct cities there is no chance the RAF tries it at night. Nuking Switzerland or Sweden is not a good PR move

That's more of an argument not to let the USAAF have the thing. By 1943/44, with Pathfinder Force, Bomber Command's accuracy had improved beyond all recognition from the early period when getting a bomb within five miles of the target was the exception rather than the rule.
 
One critical concern with choosing the target: It's essential that the plane will not get blown out of the sky en route.

In the skies over Germany, that's not certain. The Luftwafffe is weakened severely, but after bomb 1, any B-29 will be swarmedby anything that can fly.
 
One critical concern with choosing the target: It's essential that the plane will not get blown out of the sky en route.

In the skies over Germany, that's not certain. The Luftwafffe is weakened severely, but after bomb 1, any B-29 will be swarmedby anything that can fly.
Having to stop every 350mph plane flying at 34,000 feet is easier said than done.

And the Germans wouldn't know that it took a B-29 to deliver that bomb, so would worry about every other bomber after the first bucket of Instant Sunshine gets delivered.

The 509th flew mission profile that matched Photo-Recon and Weather missions that standard B-29s were doing. Then one day, a city was gone.

All the IJA knew, was that a three element B-29 Formation was sighted near Hiroshima before the city was destroyed. Tooks some time to figure it was an Atomic Bomb.

Listening to the Farm Hall transcripts, the German Atomic scientists were gobsmacked on hearing the news: they thought it impossible for a bomb to be small enough to be dropped
 

Lusitania

Donor
The affect of nuclear bomb dropped on German city will not be as dramatic and deadly as bomb dropped on Japanese city. As had been pointed out in other threads before the Japanese cities constructed mainly of wood vs German cities constructed of stone would have a different destruction pattern and extent of destruction with German cities requiring 3 bombs to get same destruction as 1 bomb in Japanese city.
 
The B-29 only came into service on the 8th May 1944, and the Pacific had priority due to the plane's range. Therefore, the bomb would probably he dropped by a modified Lancaster. If FDR is really insistent on a US plane, then a B-29 Squadron would be rerouted, which would take town and perhaps cause the Pacific War to last longer. I don't know if the B-24 was capable of dropping the bomb.
Paging Mr Barnes Wallis for a joint Anglo US project. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victory_Bomber
 
In July 1940, the British scientist determined that a practical atomic bomb could be built. From then on little happens on the atomic bomb project till August 1941 when an Australian Oliphant went to the US to find out why little was happening and he discovers that the information had not reached many of the American physicists so he informed them on the potential of an atomic bomb. Only after that does the atomic bomb project starts to move.

So we have almost a year lost, what if it was not lost? What happens now?


But would learning about the feasibility of an atomic bomb a year earlier mean bomb production would begin a year earlier?

After the U.S. entered the war there were basically unlimited funds and resources allocated to the Manhattan Project. Learning that it was possible to build a deployable atomic bomb in 1940 might
raise interest and increase funding to the nascent Manhattan project by a limited amount. But to actually succeed the project will still require the 1942 and later funding levels.

I think at best the atomic bomb would be ready only a month or two earlier then OTL.
 
The affect of nuclear bomb dropped on German city will not be as dramatic and deadly as bomb dropped on Japanese city. As had been pointed out in other threads before the Japanese cities constructed mainly of wood vs German cities constructed of stone would have a different destruction pattern and extent of destruction with German cities requiring 3 bombs to get same destruction as 1 bomb in Japanese city.
https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/...ft=1968&casualties=1&psi=20,5,1&cloud=1&zm=13

Nukemap says 25k dead, 59k injured, but that doesn't model the city being full of refuges or 1945 population density
 
I would think if some hook and crook the A-bomb is operational by August 1944 the development of B-29 would be a top priority. Before actual mission planes would be introduced to the European theatre and bogus missions would be flown, as said by marathag. I would figure there would be at least a couple hundred operational B-29's in Britain at this point, possibly even more as I said, B-29 would get an absolute top priority. I would not be also surprised if B-32 Dominator would be fully produced as well, to serve as back up. It might be even possible that the B-36 would be speeded up, was it clear initially how big the atomic bomb would actually be? The British would probably make an all out effort to produce a Victory Bomber as well, as Peg Leg Pom reminded. Probably Avro 684 would be produced as back-up.

This would mean probably some dislocation of traditional (Lanc, B-17, B-24 et al) bomber production, so the Combined Bomber Offensive might be slightly less heavy. How much, I would not know. OTOH, when B-29 or B-32 or Victory Bomber or Avro 684 or B-36 or some combination of them come online in 1944 this would mean a massive improvement to the CBO, most probably, not least as the casualties would drop.

The best target for the initial mission might be Hamburg, as it would minimize the ingress route. It might be subjected just to minor and daylight raids prior in order to save it as a target. If the war is going as OTL there's thinking that Germany is on it's last legs and thus one bomb at the time raids might be made. If war is proceeding at slightly less well for the Allies I would think they would reserve at least a few bombs for a massive introductory raid.

A-bombs would have massive psychological as well as practical implications on German warmaking ability as it would practically release much of the 8th AF and Bomber Command for another targets. Even if Hitler keeps the control I would expect Germany to crumble before Christmas.

Post-war there would be debates about the morality of use, and in alternate history forums many would point out the massive casualties of not only Western Allied soldiers but Germans and Soviets too on how many soldiers and civilians would have died if the war did end up by, say, June 1945.

The question is, what would happen in Japan? It would be crystal clear that the whole islands would be obliterated if they did not surrender. Hopefully Japan would surrender sooner. Otherwise, prepare for first tactical deployment of a nuke in Okinawa.

Post-war, the Soviet program might get a bomb slightly sooner at service. US armed forces would be even more atomic oriented than OTL, I would guess.
 
Last edited:
But would learning about the feasibility of an atomic bomb a year earlier mean bomb production would begin a year earlier?

After the U.S. entered the war there were basically unlimited funds and resources allocated to the Manhattan Project. Learning that it was possible to build a deployable atomic bomb in 1940 might
raise interest and increase funding to the nascent Manhattan project by a limited amount. But to actually succeed the project will still require the 1942 and later funding levels.

I think at best the atomic bomb would be ready only a month or two earlier then OTL.

At least a great amount of scientists would be recruited to the project earlier, speeding theoretical work. As the Axis would be doing seemingly great in 1941 and 1942, might this lead to even more massive spending than OTL as it would seem that Germany and Japan might have their own projects too?
 
The B-29 only came into service on the 8th May 1944, and the Pacific had priority due to the plane's range. Therefore, the bomb would probably he dropped by a modified Lancaster. If FDR is really insistent on a US plane, then a B-29 Squadron would be rerouted, which would take town and perhaps cause the Pacific War to last longer. I don't know if the B-24 was capable of dropping the bomb.
Operation Matterhorn, the deployment of B-29s to China began when The 58th Heavy Bomber Wing arrived in India in April 1944 OTL. The first B-29 combat mission to Bangkok was 5 June 1944.
The 73rd Bomber Wing began operations in the Marianas in November 1944. This means the air campaign could start right on time as OTL.
If you want to drop a atomic bomb on Germany you divert the 58th Wing to England instead of China. The ATL version of the 509th Group is carved out of one the 58th’s Bomber groups.
The biggest problem to overcome is building airfields to house a combat wing of B-29s. You would have to start work in early 1943 and make work a priority. This is also the same period when the 8th Air Force is building up as well.
 
Operation Matterhorn, the deployment of B-29s to China began when The 58th Heavy Bomber Wing arrived in India in April 1944 OTL. The first B-29 combat mission to Bangkok was 5 June 1944.
The 73rd Bomber Wing began operations in the Marianas in November 1944. This means the air campaign could start right on time as OTL.
If you want to drop a atomic bomb on Germany you divert the 58th Wing to England instead of China. The ATL version of the 509th Group is carved out of one the 58th’s Bomber groups.
The biggest problem to overcome is building airfields to house a combat wing of B-29s. You would have to start work in early 1943 and make work a priority. This is also the same period when the 8th Air Force is building up as well.

IOTL there were plans drawn up on 1941 to base the B-29s out of Egypt because of overcrowding, but that isn't very practical. Maybe some B-24s/17s/Lancs could be rebased in Italy? Alternatively, you could base the B-29s in NI, Scotland or Wales which wasn't as crowded.
 
But WOULD the bomb drop on Germany in 1944? Or would the US use it on some Japanese target?

Yes. Germany was the expected initial target at the time.

Alternatively, you could base the B-29s in NI, Scotland or Wales which wasn't as crowded.

There were plans to base B-29s at RAF Aldergrove in Northern Ireland. IIRC there was also work done on other British airfields in preperation for their expected arrival.
 
IOTL there were plans drawn up on 1941 to base the B-29s out of Egypt because of overcrowding, but that isn't very practical. Maybe some B-24s/17s/Lancs could be rebased in Italy? Alternatively, you could base the B-29s in NI, Scotland or Wales which wasn't as crowded.
OTL the B-29s did stop in Egypt on their way to India. Millisle in Northern Ireland was supposedly going to be home to B-29s but work on the airfield was stopped in 1944.
USAAF B-17/24s could have been sent to the Med but remember that the Allies are building up for D-Day. You need aircraft in England to bomb Germany.
In the end I think the Allies would make it happen and build airfields capable of handling Superforts. If British and Irish laborers can’t get it done in time US Army Combat Engineers will. Maybe building airfields in Italy gets put on the back burner.
 
Top