The Atheist Series
Banned
Hello, this is my first post here, so please, bear with me, If I mess few words up.
I'm new to the genre of alternate history, so I'm not very well familiar with the popular tropes or authors but what I'm very familiar with is science-both Natural and Humanities and would like to construct an alternate timeline where I can explore question that interest me. My primary focus is on the relationship between technological progress (strong interest in the history of science and the method of scientific investigation) and societal structures and norms (e.g. the relationship amongst economy, politics, the military and others). I want to know more about the intersection of the two, so I have decided to investigate an alternative history timeline where they can interfere and wonder how realistic it can be. My intention with this thread is to present you the backbone of the story of this alt-history timeline and ask you do you think it's plausible. If you see anything unplausible with it, please, give me your thoughts on the subject. My intention is to grow this efforts into a series of books which I may or may not eventually publish to explore 3 questions stemming from the interaction between the "fabric" of society (e.g. it's culture, laws, norms, institutions and especially religion) and the technology it is able to master. I want to create a work of fiction delving deeply into these relationships. Although fictional I seriously intend to derive conclusions applying to the real-world about these 2 subjects and make people think about this relationship. In an essence, they will be the main "protagonists" of my work. These questions are:
1.What is the relationship between the dominant religion in society and its level of technological development? E.g. can religion inhibit or accelerate the development of technology and to what extent?
2.Can there be one Great World Superpower on the planet existing in virtual isolation from all other societies anywhere beyond occasional trade and explorations missions launched by this country to other non-advanced states and cultures, or seeing the degree to which this civilization advances everyone else will desperately try to copy it even at the price of ruining their own cultures at the process? (I think you can see how this question connects to the first one.)
3.How far can a civilization reach on its own before entering stagnation because it has virtually no competition? Is the lack of competition even a factor inhibiting the progress of society?
What I mean by that is if a civilization becomes too advanced will it enter into stagnation because there is no one to challenge it or can the progress of civilizations driven entirely by internal factors remaining constant even in the face of virtual isolation from anyone else? In our own timeline there have always been contestants to even the most advanced civilizations at any point in time so competition amongst nations and cultures has always been leading factor for progress. If anyone got a lead, sooner or later there was a competitor trying to take it away from them. The process continues even to this day. I want to explore a timeline where one civilization, one culture takes such a huge lead forward that no one can reach it. What would happen than-stagnation or internally generated progress? (I think you can see how this relates to the second question.)
With all of it in mind I want to present you my hypothetical scenario for investigating these questions:
I'm a Bulgarian, so I dare say I have pretty good knowledge of my country's history. This is why I want to set the beginning of my timeline in 11th century Byzantine empire with the point of departure from our own at 1071-the battle of Manzikert. The battle itself isn't the important event, but the rebellion in the lands of Bulgaria that followed it is. In our timeline the rebellion was lead by a bolyar (Bulgarian nobleman) called Georgi Voyteh who surrendered power to the son of the Serbian Prince Michael and this lead to great turmoil amongst the rebels, since despite him having Bulgarian royal blood, he behaved like an outsider to the people and this divided the rebellion so much, it was easily crushed by the Byzantines.
However, in my timeline there exists one man who sees the perils of the rebellion in advance and can clearly see it is destined to fail even before the Byzantines come. He is not of noble blood (as far as he knows) and he comes with a plan on his own how to create an independent Bulgarian state during that time. His name is Kamen and he is my main protagonist (initially). He is very good at 2 things-fighting and mathematics and he is....a Heretic!
He hates the Orthodox church and thinks it's only foreign influence on the Bulgarian people, so he decides he can create a better state than the Byzantine empire, something much different than what exists at this time and place. He knows about the works of Plato and a little bit of history of the classical Roman empire (he had made friends with an educated man before the current events), so he attempts to form a Republic, not a kingdom and he attracts people on the promise of fair taxation (something very important during this age) and religious freedom for all who join him. At the background of the empire busy to crush the rebellion of Georgi Voyteh in Europe and a civil war in Asia Minor he heads a band of mercenaries and with the help of some Pecheneges as allies manages to secure some lands in the Paristrion thema of Byzantine (sorry if I am getting some names wrong-I'm trying to translate from Cyrillic here and it may not work well every time) with the chaos in the empire serving to shield his men until he can grow strong enough to challenge the empire.
Thus he creates his little republic of fair taxes and religious freedom between the river Danube and the Hemus mountain range. In a couple he manages to make deal with Pecheneges and Kuman tribes occupying these lands at the time and to provide the foundations for a new kind of system-system treating people equally according to their deeds, not according to their birth. As he makes a name for himself as fair ruler of the land and brave fighter more people join his ranks-both as soldiers and to escape the war-torn empire. This swells the ranks of his band until it can reach more than 1000 men. With his Pecheneges allies this makes enough force to challenge the local bolyars (the established nobility) and to march on the capital of the thema itself. But he doesn't take the city by force instead of relying on a showdown of power to persuade the bolyars to take him seriously. This he strucks a deal with them-they accept his authority and he lets them keep their holdings.
At the meantime the empire comes back from the Bulgarian rebel, the troubles with the Seljuk Turks in Asia Minor and the civil war and dispatches a new Strateg to the thema. His name is Nestor and in our own timeline he himself led a rebellion against the emperor after seeing how much the people suffered as a result of the heavy taxation. But at this time Kamen already has the upper hand and is well established enough in the thema to show himself as a "champion of the people" and he, instead of Nestor heads the rebellion against the empire. He defeats Nestor in an ambush-style battle at the slopes of the Hemus mountain and declares all lands north of the Hemus free from Byzantine rule and fare to the people. This garners him a lot of support amongst the common folk both among the Bulgarians and Pecheneges and he manages to project just enough power to Constantinople to be regarded as serious opponent despite his lower birth.
To accomplish this he relies on his knowledge of the old Roman empire and particularly of the Roman republic. He doesn't want his army to behave like all other mercenary units of the time do-to rely on payment from the state or the noblemen and sometime on pillage, but instead demands strict discipline out of his men and forms them into well-packed units where the coordination with the rest is the utmost priority. He calls his army a legion and he aims to restore the level of discipline and organization the Romans of classical times had. To achieve this he trains his men day and night and promotes people only on the base of merit, not blood instilling high standards of honour and respect among themselves. This turns his legion into utmost fighting machine and the legion is capable of taking on mercenary units twice or even trice its own size. But what is most important is that he manages to persuade his legionaries to rely not on their salaries but on their friends the most and he instils a code of honour where the highest priority is not fighting for money, but fighting for the valour of the legion. Many other mercenaries laugh at his men and sometimes call them idiots for following such a man but their combat effectiveness proves supreme because they have very high level of cohesion and the ability to follow orders with exact precision-qualities not often find among the mercenaries of the period.
At the same time he promises to keep good relations between the local bolyars and the Pecheneges by establishing a senate for his republic. There he announces everyone will have equal voting power and majority rules. Thus it would be possible to balance the relations between the local nobility and the invading Pecheneges and only the senate can rule in favour of one or another amongst them. He uses the senate to lower the taxes for the population at large, to force the Pecheneges to sedentary lifestyle-meaning to stop them from plundering the land and to make the bolyars take less income from their subjects. Anyone who doesn't follow the decisions of the senate is faced by his legion and his legion always has the upper hand against the common mercenaries. Thus, he manages to create a system where both the nobility's and the commoners' interests and the bolyars and the Pecheneges interests are balanced and ties all inhabitants of the land into bonds directly with the senate backed by his legion, not to bonds first and foremost to their suzerains. It means the brake up of the feudal relations in his lands and he slowly but surely starts to replace the previous nobility with clerks who are chosen by strict criteria, instead of bloodlines. He uses the chaos of the Byzantine empire at the time to frighten people into submission to the new system and claims to be doing nothing more than what the empire had to do but failed. All those who oppose him and try to cling to their inheritance are dealt with by the legion and in few years he has both the bolyars and the Pecheneges under his thumb. He progresses in his deeds slowly, meticulously and patiently with out making too much fuss out of it-to get the message across-if you don't follow m, you will be finished, but if you do, you will have cozy place in my republic, albeit without the hereditary privileges you once had. So, he gives the nobility a choice-to accept their new place in society or to die by the swords of his legionaries. The senate is instrumental in his plan since it is it who manages to buy him enough time to do his work while the bolyars and the Pecheneges think they are in control because they are in the senate. The commoners can't stop this process because of the strength of his legionaries and because they are constantly reminded by people paid by him that it was the Bulgarian nobility who gave the throne to foreigners and these foreigners destroyed all hope for the kingdom. His republic is better. Thus, he also never declares himself a king or prince or any other title like that but prefers the title of Hipat, meaning in Greek Consul-not a hereditary title but an administrative one.
He keeps the Byzantines in check by sending some troops-mainly mercenaries and Pecheneg pillage parties south to the thema of Thrace to create chaos out there and to side with different warring fractions. In this time the empire is at civil war and is also preoccupied with problems in Asia Minor and with the Normans coming from Italy to Greece. When he causes even more trouble in Thrace it creates a divergence so the empire can't take him on directly at his stronghold at the Paristrion and instead has to face his proxies in Thrace where he allies himself with other factions opposing the emperor. This is a period of constant shift in power in Constantinople so he uses different factions at different time always causing troubles in Thrace so there is a buffer zone between his lands and Constantinople. However, he uses his elite legionaries sparingly counting on mercenaries and Pecheneges instead.
The tactic works well for a few years and he manages to strengthen his base at the Paristrion enough so there is no longer anyone to oppose him. He manages to elude direct and costly confrontations with the empire relying on ambushes and raids instead and on the alliances with different nobles of the region. However, one man manages to outsmart and outmanoeuvre him and he becomes a threat to his security. His name is Alexious Komnenos and he actually becomes an emperor of the Byzantine empire in this timeline as he did in our own timeline. He is a match for him and after he takes Constantinople and sets up a powerful dynasty decides to go on a march against Kamen. He anticipates the move and organizes his legion-who has swallowed up to more than 5000 men at this point as well as his Pecheneg cavallary onto a steep ravine on the road through the Hemus mountain where he ntercpts the Komnenos army and ambush it. He manages to hold a victory but just barely but the empire at this point in time is very busy to fight wars wit the turks in Asia Minor and with the normans from Italy so when Kamen comes with a peace offer Alexious is forced to accept. However, unlike our timeline where Alexious can engage the Pecheneges several times and ultimately annihilate them in this timeline Kamen keeps them in line and after he manages to subdue the tribes to will of the senate they become far better organized and equipped than in our own timeline. It means the Pechenegs are now an essential part of the army of the republic and are far more dangerous than they were in our timeline due to the military prowess of the legionaries. This worries Alexious a lot as he is now facing powerful opponents in both Asia and Europe and the Byzantine empire is weaker in this timeline than it was in ours.
The stability, law, peace and order that Kamen brings to his republic makes it blossom and soon all kinds of trade and crafts flourish in its orders. This helps bring craftsmen from all over Europe and Kamen manages to fulfil one of his dreams-to create an Academia in his lands-a centre for learning and education available for those who excel at these capacities, not only those who are born into families wealthy enough to support their children for education. In his Academia only the brightest and best remain as he gives them tributes out of merit, not out of blood ties. The Academia acquires rich library and starts doing experiments in various fields of inquiry with one of them having enormous consequences for the destiny of the whole Earth. It is the inquiry into the nature of gasses and pressure. Under his personal guide his academics manage to construct very interesting device-a machine for compressing air, the first compressor in this timeline. They use it to elucidate the gas laws and to discover what in our timeline is known as the Pascal's law of pressure but in this timeline the academics find interesting application to the compressor-hey use it to inject high-pressure air into fire. It means that the influx of oxygen can rapidly increase the temperature of the fireplace greatly. In fact, so much it's now able to generate fires strong enough to smelt iron ore. This is a fundamental discovery for the medieval period as such fires can be used to generate large quantities of one very precious resource for the period-iron! This discovery helps change the republic of Bulgaria as now it's able to produce far better and more high quality iron for armour and weapons than anyone anywhere on Earth. Understanding the potential of the technology Kamen orders relentless work on it until it can be perfected for large-scale production of the metal. It takes a lot of time and resources but eventually his academics discover the potential of charcoal to be used in cameras for the smelting of iron ore and the large-scale production of the metal and after more research-of cast iron. The iron ore "bakery" as they call it takes a lot of money, time and effort to develop but it paves the way for Bulgaria to be able to produce steel on a scale never seen to this point in time and launch it out of the middle ages. It launches the beginning of a whole new age for the economy of the country.
As another application of the work with gases and liquids the academics manage to discover ways to produce large mechanisms capable of directing the force of the liquid under pressure in desired directions. It means the discovery of the first hydraulic mechanisms and in essence of what we now know as fluid dynamics. It helps build hydraulic presses capable of harnessing and directing the energy of the fluid into specified points. They can be used to create an installation capable of bending and shaping the newly discovered pig iron and cast iron into desired shapes and to drill holes in it using hydraulic power. Later on with improvements in the purity of the metal and the control of the application of force the technology to produce sheets of metal is introduced. Based on the hydraulics and furnace research Kamen creates the first in the world in his timeline factory. A factory for the production of iron into specific shapes and sizes for its use in weaponary.
Other developments of the Academy are profound research into the nature of motion-the discovery of the laws of mechanics and the laws of conversion of heat-which leads to the development of the concept of temperature in their research and out of the of the notion of laws of conservation of mass and the discovery of a fundamental property of nature-the existence of energy. Kamen himself makes great contributions to mathematics when he is not drilling his legionaries or on hearings at the senate-he manages to discover what we now call calculus and the logarithmic function. It all builds for a society of religious tolerance on the path to improving itself greatly.
Meanwhile at Byzantium occurs the rebellion of Travul just as it happens during our timeline. He was a Bulgarian but not an Orthodox Christian but a Manichean. He breaks off from Alexious in 1084 soon after the emperor ascends to power. In our timeline he runs away with a lot of his men north of the Hemus mountain but in this timeline there lies the republic of Bulgaria who is just starting its research on smelting iron ore with high-pressure air. Kamen greats him gently and here the history switches gears. With the help of Travul the already established and going forward republic takes on the expertise of one of the best men of Alexious and he serves as a guarantee for the success of the republic. His reputation manages to persuade thousands more Paulichean to join the ranks of the legions of the republic and the heretics of that faith form the bases for its infantry. They become very brave and reliable soldiers and are entrusted with the training of all other legionaries. They also have one more important motivation-they have a place where they can practice their religion freely and with the outcasting of the old bolyar noblemen from the senate their place is taken by the Paulichean soldiers. It, however, creates a rebellion amongst the remaining Orthodox in the republic and a short civil war breaks out. The Orthodox are defeated and their place is taken by the Paulichean Manichean heretics who form the basis of the army-the trainer of the legions. They have very good military skills and prove capable of organizing the army around themselves. That makes the republican army into an ever more formidable fighting machine which now is based around legionaries heretics-men who know that if they lose the fight for the republic they will lose not only their lands, but also their faith. This makes the Bulgarian legionaries formidable in fights since they now put the protection of their faith alongside the protection of the borders and they know that there will be no quarters fighting the empire. They are putting the future of their faith alongside the future of the republic. The republic greatly benefits from this new fighting spirit and eventually drops off all ties to Orthodox Christianity in favour of policy allowing every citizen to practises his faith freely but in reality favouring the Manicheans. It can thus generate stable force of heretics to form the backbone of its legions and they become the dominant element in the army.
All these events, as well as the wars with the Seljuks in Asia Minor worry Alexios so much that just like in our timeline he pleads to the pope for help. He pleads first and foremost for help for the war against the Turks but he also wants help to deal with the heretic republic as well. And here I want to ask a question:
What do you think would have happened to the crusaders participating in the first crusade in this timeline?
Do you think they would have diverted great resources fighting the republic or do you think the crusaders would have just went south to Jerusalem and bypassed the republic? By the turn of the 12th century the republic would have existed for almost 20 years. By that time its legionaries would have assembled enough experience to turn themselves into formidable fighters. Very well organised and disciplined, too. Also following the SPQR moto and directly under the authority of a senate of whom they are part of, not some regional feudal landlord like in the rest of Europe at that time. It also means there are no frictions in the army due to the allegiance of different feudal lords to different suzerains. It's neatly organized fighting force defending not only their lands, but first and foremost-their faith. It means the legions would put one hell of a fight for everyone who tries to take their faith away and they would have an economic and civil backbone in fact identical to that which the legions of the old Roman empire had. It would have been a fight between crusaders and Roman legionaries with medieval style weapons since the only difference between the old time legionaries and these one would have been their armament. Otherwise all other aspects of the inner workings of the legion are the same. Kamen has managed to entirely copy the organization of the old Roman legions and these troops are the best there is in a time when most of the army was mercenaries. Take into account the fact that both Kamen and Travul are excellent commanders and they operate out of their own territory in full accord among themselves. The discipline of the Pecheneg cavalry has greatly improved under the republic, too. With the inclusion of the last migration of Paulicheans and the training of other migrants the army could have swallowed up to 15 000, perhaps even 20 000 troops. This is 4-5 legions. Add another 10 000 Pecheneg cavalry and this is not a small force for the medieval period. Not small indeed. One can argue only about 5000 of those were seasoned veterans from the onset of the legions but the astarties are being trained, too. When you count for the defending the faith element, too, what do you think such a force is capable of? How big of a crusader army could it stop?
Also take into account that the economy of the republic is far better organized than that of any other European state of the time, better than the empire since it was in civil war few years back. Furthermore, Kamen started a campaign of road construction decade or so ago and the republic has roads good enough to make for a fast movement of the legions within its borders. The laws keep peace and all cities are fortified. How do you think the crusaders would fare against a state like this?
The real question I want to ask is how could have the history of Europe and consequently the world changed if the papacy had to fight war on 2 fronts during the crusades. One in Europe and another in the Near East. In this timeline the Byzantine empire is weaker and can barely fight the Turks on its own. However, if the resources of the first crusade were divided between fighting a Roman style republic of heretics bound on defending their land to last man having something like 4 or 5 good Roman-style legions with another 10 000 cavalry do you think the crusades would have been a success? Could the first crusade have failed? Would there have been a second one after it? What could the repercussions of a failed crusades so early on could have been on European history? On Byzantine history? On the catholic church?
Another option is if the republic and the crusaders strike a deal for safe passage. It would have been far better for the heretics. In this timeline the crusaders only pass by near the lands of the republic and nothing happens. But I want to turn your attention to something else. If this happens than there is no one to stop the advancement of science and technology in the republic. It may be based off ancient Rome but as I put earlier Kamen is unique person. He makes the difference between our timeline and this timeline. He is good not only in battle, but also in science. His mathematical skills make him capable of unique insight. An insight no other ruler of the time is capable of. An insight into the nature of human progress. he understands the geometrical progression and the exponential functions. it means he can plot the growth of his production capacity over time. Seeing the data from his officials he rightfully concludes that growth in industry is exponential. It means he knows that the more you invest in certain technologies the more their production capacity increases and cost of production decreases in exponential fashion. He plots it and discovers that is he creates facilities for iron production employing thousands instead of hundreds of people with furnaces designed to scale up the production he could have hundreds even thousand-fold increases in production. He applies the same reasoning for production of other goods like bricks, mortars, fabric, glass and so on and he reaches the conclusion that the most important task of the senate is to streamline production of all goods to maximise the production scale while minimizing the cost in labour. To be concise-he understands industrialization. This is what a good mathematician can do. If you are good with numbers you are destined to understand industrialization well enough. Nobody else has this kind of knowledge at medieval times. his unique background in mathematics makes him able to do it and it's the greatest ace of the republic. The republic isn't recreating the old Rome-it's actually industrializing but only Kamen knows it. Everybody thinks he is some kind of a crazy heretic who is trying to return to the old Roman ways. Actually, it's an endeavour somewhat romantic if you think of it like a medieval person would do. The recreation of the Roman republic is something that could be explained to a medieval person easy enough. Most of the people around him think the same way, too. They think he read a lot about the old Roman ways and is now trying to recreate to recreate them on their behalf.
But he is not!
Being uniquely adept in mathematics what he is trying to build is a society where the production of everything can be scaled up and a craft can be used to better another craft, the increase in production in one item can increase the production of another and overall create a society where the number and quantity of everything increases until there is enough for everybody. This is what he tries to do with his metalworks project and consequentially every little more every day he creates an installation capable of smelting more iron than the rest of the world combined during the age. By the end of his life he manages to scale up iron production so much that now the republic of Bulgaria can supply enough iron to arm and armour everyone of their legionaries better than the knights of Europe can do it for themselves. He creates an industrial apparatus first for the smelting of iron, than for its processing using hydraulic presses and drills and hammers and finally for any other production he can think of. By the end of his life-the 20s and 30s of the 12th century he understand steam power and in a few short years the Bulgarians build their first steam engines. needless to say steam power makes the increase of production ever more rapid and in this way the heretics could in theory have every infantryman turned into full-fledged knight by the middle of the 12th century.
But this isn't what is most important-such a state lead by capable mathematicians could stir up the development of many more new products and use its scientific background to start producing things the rest of the world couldn't think of for centuries. This is what mathematics can give you and if there was a point in history where a mathematician-warrior ruler could have been the best option for a country, than the transition to industrial society is precisely it. Do you agree? Does it seem realistic for you that a mathematician-warrior can turn a medieval heretic state into an industrial powerhouse. if he can understand the exponential growth of production base, I find it plausible. Do you?
What would be the implication from that for Europe and even the world?
How long do you think it would take for the Pope to understand what he's facing? Would he try to destroy the seed of heresy in its infancy or would he be willing to wait until the Holy lands are secured first? How do you think the rest of Europe would feel about a country going completely its own way and turning into something unrecognizable? Do you think the medieval person could even recognize the proportions of industrialization before it's too late for him?
In my timeline the scaling up iron production begins at the late 11th century. This is the first industry to get industrialized. A decade later there are hydraulic presses and drillers. One more the production of cast iron and pig iron is streamlined (e.g. scaled up). In 2 more decades coke is introduced. By the middle 12th century Bulgaria has acquired Herson (e.g. the Crimea) from the Byzantines with its iron ore resources and than it continues north-east to uncover the iron and coal deposits near the river Don. These are huge deposits and smelters are being build there in an entire new city dedicated solely to the production of iron. By the end of the 12th century steel manufacture is perfected but nearly half a century earlier there is already enough iron to arm all the troops of the republic with armours and whatever weapons they choose. The big difference between the heretic republic of Bulgaria and the rest of the world is that due to its scaled up economy it's capable of producing huge quantities of almost everything, so good weapons aren't reserved only for the nobility. It means by the middle of the 12th century it's able to turn each legionary into a knight and thus create entire legions of heavy cavalry. The Pecheneg cavalry falls out of use and by the middle of the 12th century all legions are made up of knights. Before that as the state develops and creates good conditions for the blossoming of its economy the population double every 20 years or so which also means doubling the size of the legions. Thus if by 1100 the republic has 4-5 legions 20 years later it already has 9-10 legions and by the middle of the century it has 9-10 legions. When it converts all of its legions into cavalry it makes up for staggering number of around 50 000 well-armed knights. And those are knights with legionary training and discipline fighting for their own faith just like any other crusader do. What could Europe throw at them?
Continuing the timeline further if the republic survives into the middle of the 12th century I can't see anything able to topple it down any more. It would the inverse-the republic would be able to conquer anything it wants. I can clearly see the first conflicts starting with the kingdom of Hungary even as early as the late 11th century but once the legions have reached maturity I can't see the Hungarians having an easy time conquering fully fledged Roman-like republic. If they don't manage to get what is going on in time what do you think would be their success rate? How big of an army could the kingdom of Hungary destroy in the 12th century in terms of Roman-like legions? At what point they would be outmatched. I don't know enough about Hungarian history but can't imagine them being able to take on more than 5 legions. This is about 20 000 highly disciplined troops. They won't be fighting an ordinary army but well-trained soldiers. At certain point the mag'yars would be badly matched and than the republic could take large portions of the kingdom without trouble. I can see after the knighting of the legions in the middle 12th century no problem at handling anything Hungary can throw at the republic. It would be its first Catholic victim.
But my question is what would the papacy do when it becomes clear the heretic republic is becoming too big of a threat? Would it send all the Hungarian troops to its borders under crusader mandate? Could the Hungarians comply or would they be too exhausted by internal divisions? Also what would happen with the kingdom when they met with the fierce resistance of a country capable of producing more weapons and armour than all of Europe combined? They will not have the economy to counter that.
If the papacy decides to act with a limited power only-e.g. sending only the Hungarians with a small detachment of elite orders of knights like the Templar of the Hospitalier I can see big trouble for the republic in the period before the 1120s where there would be no more than 7 legions, a draw between the 1120s till the middle of the century when there will be about 10 to 15 legions and no chance at all for the Hungarians after the conversion of the footsoldiers to knights. After that if the republic has more than 50 000 knights the pope must send all of Europe's forces to stop it or....start industrializing himself?
And here comes the interesting part of this timeline. In an event that there is an industrializing heretic state on the borders of the Catholic lands which can't be defeated in any normal manner do you think the pope would industrialize his own subjects. Can you imagine the catholic church commanding the faithful to start building factories and completely changing the way of life on its lands in order to catch up with more powerful opponent. If it's the 12th century I can see how much of a trouble it would be to build even one ironworks even if papal spies manage to steal the technology to do so. It would require fundamental rearrangements in society to do so. Would the pope manage to do it anywhere in Europe?
At that time the republic won't stay stagnant. After the metal production there will be the introduction of the steam engine, than by the end of the 12th century of the internal combustion engine and somewhere at the beginning of the 13th century of industrial chemistry and with it comes the ability to produce incendiaries and explosives. For a mere 2 or 3 decades the explosives can evolve from bombs to artillery shells to rifle cartages and by the middle of the century into machine-gun ammunitions. Thus, by the middle of the 13th century the army of knight legions would evolve first into one using artillery pieces, than flying machines like zeppelins and primitive airplanes, than rifles, than machine guns and finally tanks, planes and automatic rifles. What do you think the papacy would do seeing these developments?
Do you think it will start copying the technology and industrializing the rest of Europe possibly causing societal changes that would bring about its downfall?
Do you think it would just surrender to the superior firepower of the industrializing heretic republic?
Or do you think it would do something else entirely different?
If you think about it in our own timeline something similar happened although at a much smaller scale when the British first broke off the pope and than 2 centuries later started industrializing. they were a relatively small country at the periphery of the pope's reach. May be that is what saved them from annihilation at the first place ? but than later on when they reached industrial capabilities the pope and his allies had long ago not been able to do anything about it.
Please, share your thoughts on this heretical republic at the periphery of the papacy's reach scenario. Do you think the republic could manage to brake off so much technologically that after the 13th century it would be impossible for any state to influence it while everybody else would be under its influence or do you think there may be nuclear war around the 1500s between the heretical republic of Bulgaria and the industrialized Western Europe?
Also what do you think the weakened Byzantium would do at that timeline:lose the war with the Seljuks and die off before 1453 like it did in our own timeline, become a Latin kingdom as a result of crusade like it happened in our own timeline but here it never recovers or it can industrialize too and eventually even become a nuclear superpower?
Please, share your thoughts on this timeline. How realistic is that one brilliant mathematician-warrior can bring an entire country out of the medieval age and straight into industrialization? Am I stretching too much here?
I'm new to the genre of alternate history, so I'm not very well familiar with the popular tropes or authors but what I'm very familiar with is science-both Natural and Humanities and would like to construct an alternate timeline where I can explore question that interest me. My primary focus is on the relationship between technological progress (strong interest in the history of science and the method of scientific investigation) and societal structures and norms (e.g. the relationship amongst economy, politics, the military and others). I want to know more about the intersection of the two, so I have decided to investigate an alternative history timeline where they can interfere and wonder how realistic it can be. My intention with this thread is to present you the backbone of the story of this alt-history timeline and ask you do you think it's plausible. If you see anything unplausible with it, please, give me your thoughts on the subject. My intention is to grow this efforts into a series of books which I may or may not eventually publish to explore 3 questions stemming from the interaction between the "fabric" of society (e.g. it's culture, laws, norms, institutions and especially religion) and the technology it is able to master. I want to create a work of fiction delving deeply into these relationships. Although fictional I seriously intend to derive conclusions applying to the real-world about these 2 subjects and make people think about this relationship. In an essence, they will be the main "protagonists" of my work. These questions are:
1.What is the relationship between the dominant religion in society and its level of technological development? E.g. can religion inhibit or accelerate the development of technology and to what extent?
2.Can there be one Great World Superpower on the planet existing in virtual isolation from all other societies anywhere beyond occasional trade and explorations missions launched by this country to other non-advanced states and cultures, or seeing the degree to which this civilization advances everyone else will desperately try to copy it even at the price of ruining their own cultures at the process? (I think you can see how this question connects to the first one.)
3.How far can a civilization reach on its own before entering stagnation because it has virtually no competition? Is the lack of competition even a factor inhibiting the progress of society?
What I mean by that is if a civilization becomes too advanced will it enter into stagnation because there is no one to challenge it or can the progress of civilizations driven entirely by internal factors remaining constant even in the face of virtual isolation from anyone else? In our own timeline there have always been contestants to even the most advanced civilizations at any point in time so competition amongst nations and cultures has always been leading factor for progress. If anyone got a lead, sooner or later there was a competitor trying to take it away from them. The process continues even to this day. I want to explore a timeline where one civilization, one culture takes such a huge lead forward that no one can reach it. What would happen than-stagnation or internally generated progress? (I think you can see how this relates to the second question.)
With all of it in mind I want to present you my hypothetical scenario for investigating these questions:
I'm a Bulgarian, so I dare say I have pretty good knowledge of my country's history. This is why I want to set the beginning of my timeline in 11th century Byzantine empire with the point of departure from our own at 1071-the battle of Manzikert. The battle itself isn't the important event, but the rebellion in the lands of Bulgaria that followed it is. In our timeline the rebellion was lead by a bolyar (Bulgarian nobleman) called Georgi Voyteh who surrendered power to the son of the Serbian Prince Michael and this lead to great turmoil amongst the rebels, since despite him having Bulgarian royal blood, he behaved like an outsider to the people and this divided the rebellion so much, it was easily crushed by the Byzantines.
However, in my timeline there exists one man who sees the perils of the rebellion in advance and can clearly see it is destined to fail even before the Byzantines come. He is not of noble blood (as far as he knows) and he comes with a plan on his own how to create an independent Bulgarian state during that time. His name is Kamen and he is my main protagonist (initially). He is very good at 2 things-fighting and mathematics and he is....a Heretic!
He hates the Orthodox church and thinks it's only foreign influence on the Bulgarian people, so he decides he can create a better state than the Byzantine empire, something much different than what exists at this time and place. He knows about the works of Plato and a little bit of history of the classical Roman empire (he had made friends with an educated man before the current events), so he attempts to form a Republic, not a kingdom and he attracts people on the promise of fair taxation (something very important during this age) and religious freedom for all who join him. At the background of the empire busy to crush the rebellion of Georgi Voyteh in Europe and a civil war in Asia Minor he heads a band of mercenaries and with the help of some Pecheneges as allies manages to secure some lands in the Paristrion thema of Byzantine (sorry if I am getting some names wrong-I'm trying to translate from Cyrillic here and it may not work well every time) with the chaos in the empire serving to shield his men until he can grow strong enough to challenge the empire.
Thus he creates his little republic of fair taxes and religious freedom between the river Danube and the Hemus mountain range. In a couple he manages to make deal with Pecheneges and Kuman tribes occupying these lands at the time and to provide the foundations for a new kind of system-system treating people equally according to their deeds, not according to their birth. As he makes a name for himself as fair ruler of the land and brave fighter more people join his ranks-both as soldiers and to escape the war-torn empire. This swells the ranks of his band until it can reach more than 1000 men. With his Pecheneges allies this makes enough force to challenge the local bolyars (the established nobility) and to march on the capital of the thema itself. But he doesn't take the city by force instead of relying on a showdown of power to persuade the bolyars to take him seriously. This he strucks a deal with them-they accept his authority and he lets them keep their holdings.
At the meantime the empire comes back from the Bulgarian rebel, the troubles with the Seljuk Turks in Asia Minor and the civil war and dispatches a new Strateg to the thema. His name is Nestor and in our own timeline he himself led a rebellion against the emperor after seeing how much the people suffered as a result of the heavy taxation. But at this time Kamen already has the upper hand and is well established enough in the thema to show himself as a "champion of the people" and he, instead of Nestor heads the rebellion against the empire. He defeats Nestor in an ambush-style battle at the slopes of the Hemus mountain and declares all lands north of the Hemus free from Byzantine rule and fare to the people. This garners him a lot of support amongst the common folk both among the Bulgarians and Pecheneges and he manages to project just enough power to Constantinople to be regarded as serious opponent despite his lower birth.
To accomplish this he relies on his knowledge of the old Roman empire and particularly of the Roman republic. He doesn't want his army to behave like all other mercenary units of the time do-to rely on payment from the state or the noblemen and sometime on pillage, but instead demands strict discipline out of his men and forms them into well-packed units where the coordination with the rest is the utmost priority. He calls his army a legion and he aims to restore the level of discipline and organization the Romans of classical times had. To achieve this he trains his men day and night and promotes people only on the base of merit, not blood instilling high standards of honour and respect among themselves. This turns his legion into utmost fighting machine and the legion is capable of taking on mercenary units twice or even trice its own size. But what is most important is that he manages to persuade his legionaries to rely not on their salaries but on their friends the most and he instils a code of honour where the highest priority is not fighting for money, but fighting for the valour of the legion. Many other mercenaries laugh at his men and sometimes call them idiots for following such a man but their combat effectiveness proves supreme because they have very high level of cohesion and the ability to follow orders with exact precision-qualities not often find among the mercenaries of the period.
At the same time he promises to keep good relations between the local bolyars and the Pecheneges by establishing a senate for his republic. There he announces everyone will have equal voting power and majority rules. Thus it would be possible to balance the relations between the local nobility and the invading Pecheneges and only the senate can rule in favour of one or another amongst them. He uses the senate to lower the taxes for the population at large, to force the Pecheneges to sedentary lifestyle-meaning to stop them from plundering the land and to make the bolyars take less income from their subjects. Anyone who doesn't follow the decisions of the senate is faced by his legion and his legion always has the upper hand against the common mercenaries. Thus, he manages to create a system where both the nobility's and the commoners' interests and the bolyars and the Pecheneges interests are balanced and ties all inhabitants of the land into bonds directly with the senate backed by his legion, not to bonds first and foremost to their suzerains. It means the brake up of the feudal relations in his lands and he slowly but surely starts to replace the previous nobility with clerks who are chosen by strict criteria, instead of bloodlines. He uses the chaos of the Byzantine empire at the time to frighten people into submission to the new system and claims to be doing nothing more than what the empire had to do but failed. All those who oppose him and try to cling to their inheritance are dealt with by the legion and in few years he has both the bolyars and the Pecheneges under his thumb. He progresses in his deeds slowly, meticulously and patiently with out making too much fuss out of it-to get the message across-if you don't follow m, you will be finished, but if you do, you will have cozy place in my republic, albeit without the hereditary privileges you once had. So, he gives the nobility a choice-to accept their new place in society or to die by the swords of his legionaries. The senate is instrumental in his plan since it is it who manages to buy him enough time to do his work while the bolyars and the Pecheneges think they are in control because they are in the senate. The commoners can't stop this process because of the strength of his legionaries and because they are constantly reminded by people paid by him that it was the Bulgarian nobility who gave the throne to foreigners and these foreigners destroyed all hope for the kingdom. His republic is better. Thus, he also never declares himself a king or prince or any other title like that but prefers the title of Hipat, meaning in Greek Consul-not a hereditary title but an administrative one.
He keeps the Byzantines in check by sending some troops-mainly mercenaries and Pecheneg pillage parties south to the thema of Thrace to create chaos out there and to side with different warring fractions. In this time the empire is at civil war and is also preoccupied with problems in Asia Minor and with the Normans coming from Italy to Greece. When he causes even more trouble in Thrace it creates a divergence so the empire can't take him on directly at his stronghold at the Paristrion and instead has to face his proxies in Thrace where he allies himself with other factions opposing the emperor. This is a period of constant shift in power in Constantinople so he uses different factions at different time always causing troubles in Thrace so there is a buffer zone between his lands and Constantinople. However, he uses his elite legionaries sparingly counting on mercenaries and Pecheneges instead.
The tactic works well for a few years and he manages to strengthen his base at the Paristrion enough so there is no longer anyone to oppose him. He manages to elude direct and costly confrontations with the empire relying on ambushes and raids instead and on the alliances with different nobles of the region. However, one man manages to outsmart and outmanoeuvre him and he becomes a threat to his security. His name is Alexious Komnenos and he actually becomes an emperor of the Byzantine empire in this timeline as he did in our own timeline. He is a match for him and after he takes Constantinople and sets up a powerful dynasty decides to go on a march against Kamen. He anticipates the move and organizes his legion-who has swallowed up to more than 5000 men at this point as well as his Pecheneg cavallary onto a steep ravine on the road through the Hemus mountain where he ntercpts the Komnenos army and ambush it. He manages to hold a victory but just barely but the empire at this point in time is very busy to fight wars wit the turks in Asia Minor and with the normans from Italy so when Kamen comes with a peace offer Alexious is forced to accept. However, unlike our timeline where Alexious can engage the Pecheneges several times and ultimately annihilate them in this timeline Kamen keeps them in line and after he manages to subdue the tribes to will of the senate they become far better organized and equipped than in our own timeline. It means the Pechenegs are now an essential part of the army of the republic and are far more dangerous than they were in our timeline due to the military prowess of the legionaries. This worries Alexious a lot as he is now facing powerful opponents in both Asia and Europe and the Byzantine empire is weaker in this timeline than it was in ours.
The stability, law, peace and order that Kamen brings to his republic makes it blossom and soon all kinds of trade and crafts flourish in its orders. This helps bring craftsmen from all over Europe and Kamen manages to fulfil one of his dreams-to create an Academia in his lands-a centre for learning and education available for those who excel at these capacities, not only those who are born into families wealthy enough to support their children for education. In his Academia only the brightest and best remain as he gives them tributes out of merit, not out of blood ties. The Academia acquires rich library and starts doing experiments in various fields of inquiry with one of them having enormous consequences for the destiny of the whole Earth. It is the inquiry into the nature of gasses and pressure. Under his personal guide his academics manage to construct very interesting device-a machine for compressing air, the first compressor in this timeline. They use it to elucidate the gas laws and to discover what in our timeline is known as the Pascal's law of pressure but in this timeline the academics find interesting application to the compressor-hey use it to inject high-pressure air into fire. It means that the influx of oxygen can rapidly increase the temperature of the fireplace greatly. In fact, so much it's now able to generate fires strong enough to smelt iron ore. This is a fundamental discovery for the medieval period as such fires can be used to generate large quantities of one very precious resource for the period-iron! This discovery helps change the republic of Bulgaria as now it's able to produce far better and more high quality iron for armour and weapons than anyone anywhere on Earth. Understanding the potential of the technology Kamen orders relentless work on it until it can be perfected for large-scale production of the metal. It takes a lot of time and resources but eventually his academics discover the potential of charcoal to be used in cameras for the smelting of iron ore and the large-scale production of the metal and after more research-of cast iron. The iron ore "bakery" as they call it takes a lot of money, time and effort to develop but it paves the way for Bulgaria to be able to produce steel on a scale never seen to this point in time and launch it out of the middle ages. It launches the beginning of a whole new age for the economy of the country.
As another application of the work with gases and liquids the academics manage to discover ways to produce large mechanisms capable of directing the force of the liquid under pressure in desired directions. It means the discovery of the first hydraulic mechanisms and in essence of what we now know as fluid dynamics. It helps build hydraulic presses capable of harnessing and directing the energy of the fluid into specified points. They can be used to create an installation capable of bending and shaping the newly discovered pig iron and cast iron into desired shapes and to drill holes in it using hydraulic power. Later on with improvements in the purity of the metal and the control of the application of force the technology to produce sheets of metal is introduced. Based on the hydraulics and furnace research Kamen creates the first in the world in his timeline factory. A factory for the production of iron into specific shapes and sizes for its use in weaponary.
Other developments of the Academy are profound research into the nature of motion-the discovery of the laws of mechanics and the laws of conversion of heat-which leads to the development of the concept of temperature in their research and out of the of the notion of laws of conservation of mass and the discovery of a fundamental property of nature-the existence of energy. Kamen himself makes great contributions to mathematics when he is not drilling his legionaries or on hearings at the senate-he manages to discover what we now call calculus and the logarithmic function. It all builds for a society of religious tolerance on the path to improving itself greatly.
Meanwhile at Byzantium occurs the rebellion of Travul just as it happens during our timeline. He was a Bulgarian but not an Orthodox Christian but a Manichean. He breaks off from Alexious in 1084 soon after the emperor ascends to power. In our timeline he runs away with a lot of his men north of the Hemus mountain but in this timeline there lies the republic of Bulgaria who is just starting its research on smelting iron ore with high-pressure air. Kamen greats him gently and here the history switches gears. With the help of Travul the already established and going forward republic takes on the expertise of one of the best men of Alexious and he serves as a guarantee for the success of the republic. His reputation manages to persuade thousands more Paulichean to join the ranks of the legions of the republic and the heretics of that faith form the bases for its infantry. They become very brave and reliable soldiers and are entrusted with the training of all other legionaries. They also have one more important motivation-they have a place where they can practice their religion freely and with the outcasting of the old bolyar noblemen from the senate their place is taken by the Paulichean soldiers. It, however, creates a rebellion amongst the remaining Orthodox in the republic and a short civil war breaks out. The Orthodox are defeated and their place is taken by the Paulichean Manichean heretics who form the basis of the army-the trainer of the legions. They have very good military skills and prove capable of organizing the army around themselves. That makes the republican army into an ever more formidable fighting machine which now is based around legionaries heretics-men who know that if they lose the fight for the republic they will lose not only their lands, but also their faith. This makes the Bulgarian legionaries formidable in fights since they now put the protection of their faith alongside the protection of the borders and they know that there will be no quarters fighting the empire. They are putting the future of their faith alongside the future of the republic. The republic greatly benefits from this new fighting spirit and eventually drops off all ties to Orthodox Christianity in favour of policy allowing every citizen to practises his faith freely but in reality favouring the Manicheans. It can thus generate stable force of heretics to form the backbone of its legions and they become the dominant element in the army.
All these events, as well as the wars with the Seljuks in Asia Minor worry Alexios so much that just like in our timeline he pleads to the pope for help. He pleads first and foremost for help for the war against the Turks but he also wants help to deal with the heretic republic as well. And here I want to ask a question:
What do you think would have happened to the crusaders participating in the first crusade in this timeline?
Do you think they would have diverted great resources fighting the republic or do you think the crusaders would have just went south to Jerusalem and bypassed the republic? By the turn of the 12th century the republic would have existed for almost 20 years. By that time its legionaries would have assembled enough experience to turn themselves into formidable fighters. Very well organised and disciplined, too. Also following the SPQR moto and directly under the authority of a senate of whom they are part of, not some regional feudal landlord like in the rest of Europe at that time. It also means there are no frictions in the army due to the allegiance of different feudal lords to different suzerains. It's neatly organized fighting force defending not only their lands, but first and foremost-their faith. It means the legions would put one hell of a fight for everyone who tries to take their faith away and they would have an economic and civil backbone in fact identical to that which the legions of the old Roman empire had. It would have been a fight between crusaders and Roman legionaries with medieval style weapons since the only difference between the old time legionaries and these one would have been their armament. Otherwise all other aspects of the inner workings of the legion are the same. Kamen has managed to entirely copy the organization of the old Roman legions and these troops are the best there is in a time when most of the army was mercenaries. Take into account the fact that both Kamen and Travul are excellent commanders and they operate out of their own territory in full accord among themselves. The discipline of the Pecheneg cavalry has greatly improved under the republic, too. With the inclusion of the last migration of Paulicheans and the training of other migrants the army could have swallowed up to 15 000, perhaps even 20 000 troops. This is 4-5 legions. Add another 10 000 Pecheneg cavalry and this is not a small force for the medieval period. Not small indeed. One can argue only about 5000 of those were seasoned veterans from the onset of the legions but the astarties are being trained, too. When you count for the defending the faith element, too, what do you think such a force is capable of? How big of a crusader army could it stop?
Also take into account that the economy of the republic is far better organized than that of any other European state of the time, better than the empire since it was in civil war few years back. Furthermore, Kamen started a campaign of road construction decade or so ago and the republic has roads good enough to make for a fast movement of the legions within its borders. The laws keep peace and all cities are fortified. How do you think the crusaders would fare against a state like this?
The real question I want to ask is how could have the history of Europe and consequently the world changed if the papacy had to fight war on 2 fronts during the crusades. One in Europe and another in the Near East. In this timeline the Byzantine empire is weaker and can barely fight the Turks on its own. However, if the resources of the first crusade were divided between fighting a Roman style republic of heretics bound on defending their land to last man having something like 4 or 5 good Roman-style legions with another 10 000 cavalry do you think the crusades would have been a success? Could the first crusade have failed? Would there have been a second one after it? What could the repercussions of a failed crusades so early on could have been on European history? On Byzantine history? On the catholic church?
Another option is if the republic and the crusaders strike a deal for safe passage. It would have been far better for the heretics. In this timeline the crusaders only pass by near the lands of the republic and nothing happens. But I want to turn your attention to something else. If this happens than there is no one to stop the advancement of science and technology in the republic. It may be based off ancient Rome but as I put earlier Kamen is unique person. He makes the difference between our timeline and this timeline. He is good not only in battle, but also in science. His mathematical skills make him capable of unique insight. An insight no other ruler of the time is capable of. An insight into the nature of human progress. he understands the geometrical progression and the exponential functions. it means he can plot the growth of his production capacity over time. Seeing the data from his officials he rightfully concludes that growth in industry is exponential. It means he knows that the more you invest in certain technologies the more their production capacity increases and cost of production decreases in exponential fashion. He plots it and discovers that is he creates facilities for iron production employing thousands instead of hundreds of people with furnaces designed to scale up the production he could have hundreds even thousand-fold increases in production. He applies the same reasoning for production of other goods like bricks, mortars, fabric, glass and so on and he reaches the conclusion that the most important task of the senate is to streamline production of all goods to maximise the production scale while minimizing the cost in labour. To be concise-he understands industrialization. This is what a good mathematician can do. If you are good with numbers you are destined to understand industrialization well enough. Nobody else has this kind of knowledge at medieval times. his unique background in mathematics makes him able to do it and it's the greatest ace of the republic. The republic isn't recreating the old Rome-it's actually industrializing but only Kamen knows it. Everybody thinks he is some kind of a crazy heretic who is trying to return to the old Roman ways. Actually, it's an endeavour somewhat romantic if you think of it like a medieval person would do. The recreation of the Roman republic is something that could be explained to a medieval person easy enough. Most of the people around him think the same way, too. They think he read a lot about the old Roman ways and is now trying to recreate to recreate them on their behalf.
But he is not!
Being uniquely adept in mathematics what he is trying to build is a society where the production of everything can be scaled up and a craft can be used to better another craft, the increase in production in one item can increase the production of another and overall create a society where the number and quantity of everything increases until there is enough for everybody. This is what he tries to do with his metalworks project and consequentially every little more every day he creates an installation capable of smelting more iron than the rest of the world combined during the age. By the end of his life he manages to scale up iron production so much that now the republic of Bulgaria can supply enough iron to arm and armour everyone of their legionaries better than the knights of Europe can do it for themselves. He creates an industrial apparatus first for the smelting of iron, than for its processing using hydraulic presses and drills and hammers and finally for any other production he can think of. By the end of his life-the 20s and 30s of the 12th century he understand steam power and in a few short years the Bulgarians build their first steam engines. needless to say steam power makes the increase of production ever more rapid and in this way the heretics could in theory have every infantryman turned into full-fledged knight by the middle of the 12th century.
But this isn't what is most important-such a state lead by capable mathematicians could stir up the development of many more new products and use its scientific background to start producing things the rest of the world couldn't think of for centuries. This is what mathematics can give you and if there was a point in history where a mathematician-warrior ruler could have been the best option for a country, than the transition to industrial society is precisely it. Do you agree? Does it seem realistic for you that a mathematician-warrior can turn a medieval heretic state into an industrial powerhouse. if he can understand the exponential growth of production base, I find it plausible. Do you?
What would be the implication from that for Europe and even the world?
How long do you think it would take for the Pope to understand what he's facing? Would he try to destroy the seed of heresy in its infancy or would he be willing to wait until the Holy lands are secured first? How do you think the rest of Europe would feel about a country going completely its own way and turning into something unrecognizable? Do you think the medieval person could even recognize the proportions of industrialization before it's too late for him?
In my timeline the scaling up iron production begins at the late 11th century. This is the first industry to get industrialized. A decade later there are hydraulic presses and drillers. One more the production of cast iron and pig iron is streamlined (e.g. scaled up). In 2 more decades coke is introduced. By the middle 12th century Bulgaria has acquired Herson (e.g. the Crimea) from the Byzantines with its iron ore resources and than it continues north-east to uncover the iron and coal deposits near the river Don. These are huge deposits and smelters are being build there in an entire new city dedicated solely to the production of iron. By the end of the 12th century steel manufacture is perfected but nearly half a century earlier there is already enough iron to arm all the troops of the republic with armours and whatever weapons they choose. The big difference between the heretic republic of Bulgaria and the rest of the world is that due to its scaled up economy it's capable of producing huge quantities of almost everything, so good weapons aren't reserved only for the nobility. It means by the middle of the 12th century it's able to turn each legionary into a knight and thus create entire legions of heavy cavalry. The Pecheneg cavalry falls out of use and by the middle of the 12th century all legions are made up of knights. Before that as the state develops and creates good conditions for the blossoming of its economy the population double every 20 years or so which also means doubling the size of the legions. Thus if by 1100 the republic has 4-5 legions 20 years later it already has 9-10 legions and by the middle of the century it has 9-10 legions. When it converts all of its legions into cavalry it makes up for staggering number of around 50 000 well-armed knights. And those are knights with legionary training and discipline fighting for their own faith just like any other crusader do. What could Europe throw at them?
Continuing the timeline further if the republic survives into the middle of the 12th century I can't see anything able to topple it down any more. It would the inverse-the republic would be able to conquer anything it wants. I can clearly see the first conflicts starting with the kingdom of Hungary even as early as the late 11th century but once the legions have reached maturity I can't see the Hungarians having an easy time conquering fully fledged Roman-like republic. If they don't manage to get what is going on in time what do you think would be their success rate? How big of an army could the kingdom of Hungary destroy in the 12th century in terms of Roman-like legions? At what point they would be outmatched. I don't know enough about Hungarian history but can't imagine them being able to take on more than 5 legions. This is about 20 000 highly disciplined troops. They won't be fighting an ordinary army but well-trained soldiers. At certain point the mag'yars would be badly matched and than the republic could take large portions of the kingdom without trouble. I can see after the knighting of the legions in the middle 12th century no problem at handling anything Hungary can throw at the republic. It would be its first Catholic victim.
But my question is what would the papacy do when it becomes clear the heretic republic is becoming too big of a threat? Would it send all the Hungarian troops to its borders under crusader mandate? Could the Hungarians comply or would they be too exhausted by internal divisions? Also what would happen with the kingdom when they met with the fierce resistance of a country capable of producing more weapons and armour than all of Europe combined? They will not have the economy to counter that.
If the papacy decides to act with a limited power only-e.g. sending only the Hungarians with a small detachment of elite orders of knights like the Templar of the Hospitalier I can see big trouble for the republic in the period before the 1120s where there would be no more than 7 legions, a draw between the 1120s till the middle of the century when there will be about 10 to 15 legions and no chance at all for the Hungarians after the conversion of the footsoldiers to knights. After that if the republic has more than 50 000 knights the pope must send all of Europe's forces to stop it or....start industrializing himself?
And here comes the interesting part of this timeline. In an event that there is an industrializing heretic state on the borders of the Catholic lands which can't be defeated in any normal manner do you think the pope would industrialize his own subjects. Can you imagine the catholic church commanding the faithful to start building factories and completely changing the way of life on its lands in order to catch up with more powerful opponent. If it's the 12th century I can see how much of a trouble it would be to build even one ironworks even if papal spies manage to steal the technology to do so. It would require fundamental rearrangements in society to do so. Would the pope manage to do it anywhere in Europe?
At that time the republic won't stay stagnant. After the metal production there will be the introduction of the steam engine, than by the end of the 12th century of the internal combustion engine and somewhere at the beginning of the 13th century of industrial chemistry and with it comes the ability to produce incendiaries and explosives. For a mere 2 or 3 decades the explosives can evolve from bombs to artillery shells to rifle cartages and by the middle of the century into machine-gun ammunitions. Thus, by the middle of the 13th century the army of knight legions would evolve first into one using artillery pieces, than flying machines like zeppelins and primitive airplanes, than rifles, than machine guns and finally tanks, planes and automatic rifles. What do you think the papacy would do seeing these developments?
Do you think it will start copying the technology and industrializing the rest of Europe possibly causing societal changes that would bring about its downfall?
Do you think it would just surrender to the superior firepower of the industrializing heretic republic?
Or do you think it would do something else entirely different?
If you think about it in our own timeline something similar happened although at a much smaller scale when the British first broke off the pope and than 2 centuries later started industrializing. they were a relatively small country at the periphery of the pope's reach. May be that is what saved them from annihilation at the first place ? but than later on when they reached industrial capabilities the pope and his allies had long ago not been able to do anything about it.
Please, share your thoughts on this heretical republic at the periphery of the papacy's reach scenario. Do you think the republic could manage to brake off so much technologically that after the 13th century it would be impossible for any state to influence it while everybody else would be under its influence or do you think there may be nuclear war around the 1500s between the heretical republic of Bulgaria and the industrialized Western Europe?
Also what do you think the weakened Byzantium would do at that timeline:lose the war with the Seljuks and die off before 1453 like it did in our own timeline, become a Latin kingdom as a result of crusade like it happened in our own timeline but here it never recovers or it can industrialize too and eventually even become a nuclear superpower?
Please, share your thoughts on this timeline. How realistic is that one brilliant mathematician-warrior can bring an entire country out of the medieval age and straight into industrialization? Am I stretching too much here?
