The assassination of Khomeini

May 1980. The Iranian Revolution has been wildly successful. The American embassy staff have been hostages for 6 months now, and the previous month's rescue mission failed. Many working class Iranians act like that their religious leader, Ayutollah Khomeini, is the messiah reborn. [the comparison may be inappropriate for Islam, forgive me for that] One day, as he appears on his second storey porch in the holy city of Qom, and the crowd goes wild, then two shots rings out, and the great man crumples. One bullet hits him in the heart, and death is almost instantaneous. The assassin, firing from a nearby building, drops his rifle, and tries to escape, Oswald style, but is caught by the crowd. He is kicked and beaten until he is very dead, but the enraged mob literally beats him into a pulp, so that any positive ID is impossible. [Later, the authorities come to believe that he was a former member of SAVAK, but the official line is that he was an agent of the "Great Satan']
Now the followers of the fallen Ayutollah, unstable to begin with, go absolutely apeshit. And here's where the butterflies begin to kick in.
What happens to the American hostages? I suspect that some or all would be quickly killed by their captors. And if so, can POTUS Carter muster the nerve to do anything about it millitarily? This could have ramifications for the US elections, if Mondale and the cabinet can force a reluctant Carter to 'send in the marines'.
Can this butterfly away the Iraqi invasion, even if the Americans don't invade? And mightn't the USSR, amid the confusion, decide that this is their golden moment, and make a dash for the Persian Gulf? Personally, I believe that to be the most likely scenario. They could come in at the invitation of the Iranian communist [Tudeh?] party, under the auspices of 'restoring order', and the Iranian armed forces might be overwhelmed fairly quickly. I really can't see Carter acting in a quick, decisive manner. I don't think he was a coward, although I consider that Cyrus Vance was. If I'm not mistaken, he was so opposed to any military action, that he resigned over the failed hostage mission.
Anyway, comments are welcome.
 
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