The Art of the Deal - impact of treaties early in US hisotry

Part 27 - James G. Blaine (Nat Rep) - 17th POTUS, 1885 - 1889

The Blaine presidency was basically another four years of Chet Arthur. The naval modernization continued.

In the mid 1880's, the USA consisted of 44 states and nine territories. Those territories being:
Washington - territorial capital in Tacoma
Idaho - territorial capital in Lewiston
Indian Territory - territorial capital in Muskogee
Arizona - territorial capital in Tucson
Sonora - territorial capital in Hermosillo
Chihuahua - territorial capital in Chihuahua
Nevada - territorial capital in Carson City
Alaska - territorial capital in Sitka
Pacific Island Territories - Territorial capital in Honolulu, Hawaii (territories include Hawaiian Islands, Samoan Islands, Gilbert Islands, Marshall Islands, Marianas Islands, Bonin Islands, western portion of Caroline islands)

The top issues domestically were the tariff as Nat reps supported higher tariffs and Democrats supported lower, the gold vs. silver treasury backing cut across party lines as easterners of both parties wanted to continue the gold standard and southerners and westerners backed a silver standard.

Per agreements with Britain and France which gave USA islands in the Pacific, the USA took no interest in Africa other than the backing of an independent Morocco and the continued US naval base in Tangiers, Morocco. With this , the USA attended the Berlin Conference but did not take an active role in the proceedings to divide up Africa amongst the European powers.

The national debt stays steady AT $230 million with the naval upgrade and funding of canals in central America.

As with the election of 1884, New York was the key state for the 1888 election. In this election, Grover Cleveland won the presidency by carrying New York and carrying the South.

Note:
It is looking a lot like OTL. A couple exceptions are that the USA is more active in Asia for free trade with China and Japan and the USA is actively backing Morocco. A lower federal debt than OTL will aid in further expansion of navy to protect and project US interests. Both Asia with Japan emerging against China and Russia are approaching and the Morocco crisis where Spain and France want to divide up Morocco and are opposed by Germany and the USA which is odd due to the USA being closer to France than Germany. For the first Sino - Japanese war, I see the USA being involved to guarantee the independence of Korea which will increase tensions with Japan and the backing of Morocco. Will the USA go to war to guarantee the independence of Korea and Morocco???? We shall see .....


 
Why would the US want an independent Korea? It has always been owned by the Chinese up until OTL it gets grabbed by Japan. Also, I feel with greater Hispanic population seen in the Caribbean and Cuba, there will be a greater focus on creating stable non-banana republic governments in Central America. Perhaps resurrect the FRCA? Also, what of the French attempt to put a Hapsburg to rule Mexico to pay off debts? You mention Liberia earlier, but how is that being handled? Are southerners still trying to ship ex-slave back to Africa with slavery now banned? Or will it be cut free as it's own country? The Philippines could be sold to Japan as well...
 
Why would the US want an independent Korea? It has always been owned by the Chinese up until OTL it gets grabbed by Japan. Also, I feel with greater Hispanic population seen in the Caribbean and Cuba, there will be a greater focus on creating stable non-banana republic governments in Central America. Perhaps resurrect the FRCA? Also, what of the French attempt to put a Hapsburg to rule Mexico to pay off debts? You mention Liberia earlier, but how is that being handled? Are southerners still trying to ship ex-slave back to Africa with slavery now banned? Or will it be cut free as it's own country? The Philippines could be sold to Japan as well...

OK, thank you, good points

Yes, the USA will side with Qing China to keep Korea in its domain. I do not think that the USA will go to war over Japan over Korea, but will send whatever it can to China. Actually, it would support an independent Korea.

Yes, the USA is definitely on the side of stable, non-banana war in the Caribbean and Central America. The stronger Hispanic vote in Cuba, Puerto Rico and the Southwest is a power base for the Democrats ITTL.

Without the Civil War, the USA was definitely anti-French to place Maximillian as a Mexican emperor. The USA is strongly against the attempt. If it still happens, the USA resists and supports the Mexican rebels against the French and Mexican Monarchists. Result, Maxamillion is kicked out sooner. Relations between the USA and France sour some. But that is if France makes a grab for Mexico. Backed by the British, yes the French make a go for Mexico and place Maximillian on the throne. The USA supports the rebels to the utmost from the beginning. All sorts of supplies are sent to Mexico. You are right, I totally missed this. I can see the USA giving 20 million dollars in supplies to Mexico. It will be a move that is supported by both parties. Thank you,, so US debt is $20 million more to make it $250 million. Mexicans praise USA for support. Feelings over previous war are erased. There is a San Patricio regiment that fights for Mexico. It is larger and has USA blessing. The USA sends officers for training

Liberia is a protectorate. The forceful sending of free blacks to Liberia has died down. More northern money is going to schools to educate. Also, being generations removed from Africa, their is not a huge interest in African Americans to leave the USA. The southern planter class, needs share croppers to work the land. The blacks that are freed, the first generation are more like indentured servants as they have to purchase their own freedom. So yes, they are free of the slave master's whip, but they still have to pay themselves off with portions of the crop to the owner. Liberia is a protectorate of the USA. The USA offers protection for a naval base in Monrovia. The USA African Squadron is based here.

Philippines could be sold to Japan or to Germany or USA or become independent. The USA does not want Philippines, so independent is probably what the USA desires. This is another potential flashpoint between Germany, Japan and USA. Germany and Japan are emerging powers. The USA is already a Pacific power and does not want any more competition. The USA goals would be to put both Germany and Japan it its place. Britain though would favor Japan over Germany and the USA in the Philippines. I do not have a clear picture of how it goes down though.

What are your thoughts in this timeline of increased USA Pacific presence and sooner involvement in international affairs for:
Rise of Japan against China and then Russia
Morocco - OTL it was divided between France and Spain in first decade of 1900's, ITTL, it is supported by USA due to basing of the USA Mediterranean Squadron
Future of Philippines, Taiwan, and Korea
 
Yes, the USA will side with Qing China to keep Korea in its domain. I do not think that the USA will go to war over Japan over Korea, but will send whatever it can to China. Actually, it would support an independent Korea

I guess I keep coming back to 'why?' At this point every single European great power has taken a chunk out of Qing China and historically the US simply wanted to make sure free trade was still occuring to keep the Chinese market open. Why would the US suddenly decide to intervene? If Japan didn't make a play, Russia certainly would have. The only stipulation OTL that the US had in the treaty was to keep Korea's markets open even if it's overlord switched to Japan.

Since the idea of this timeline is moderation, you could have them not annex Korea a couple days later and instead maintain them as a protectorate? Create the Co-Prosperity Sphere to free Asia from European hegemony! And screw over China and Russia...

So far you have made the US more moderate in its deals, but everyone else seems to be the same. No one else is going to play nice...

PS: have Germany buy the Spanish possessions in the Pacific to placate them on Morocco, and then when WWI breaks out, Japan seizes it all like OTL.
 
What are your thoughts in this timeline of increased USA Pacific presence and sooner involvement in international affairs for:
Rise of Japan against China and then Russia
Morocco - OTL it was divided between France and Spain in first decade of 1900's, ITTL, it is supported by USA due to basing of the USA Mediterranean Squadron
Future of Philippines, Taiwan, and Korea

What is the relationship between the US and Russia ITTL? On the one hand, a closer relationship with Britain might change the equation, but on the other hand, a stronger Russian ally in the Pacific could act as a control on Japanese and German ambitions, applying a parallel pressure stream that helps American goals there. American strategy in the Pacific seems to be to keep it as weak and divided as possible while also keeping it as a resource base with stable trading markets. That is to say, no real rivals would be permitted. Germany doesn't seem like it poses a credible threat of hegemony in the Pacific, so it seems like it would get first preference for a sale. But if Russia is friendlier and German ambitions on the European continent want to be checked, why not a Russian Philippines? Would Russia go for that? The other issue, of course, is the Liaodong Peninsula and Port Arthur. Would Russia be getting a little too big if it had both Port Arthur, most of Manchuria, and the Philippines? Would the Philippines be a resource drain anyway?
 
USA is on friendly terms with Russia. Relations are the same as or a little more friendlier than OTL.
 
I feel like Russia will focus on eating up Mongolia and Manchuria first. The reason they sold Alaska was because they needed the cash. I don't see why they would believe they could turn the Philippines into a money making colony when the Spanish weren't able to. Now if Russia can eat all of Mongolia, Manchuria, and Port Arthur and be flush with cash? The US bought it and Puerto Rico for $20 million after humiliating Spain in a war. I would assume a peaceful transition would cost more.
 
I feel like Russia will focus on eating up Mongolia and Manchuria first. The reason they sold Alaska was because they needed the cash. I don't see why they would believe they could turn the Philippines into a money making colony when the Spanish weren't able to. Now if Russia can eat all of Mongolia, Manchuria, and Port Arthur and be flush with cash? The US bought it and Puerto Rico for $20 million after humiliating Spain in a war. I would assume a peaceful transition would cost more.

I think that Mongolia, Manchuria, and maybe Xinjiang, too, would take up too much of Russia's attention and cash for them to consider far more outlandish, populous, and exotic lands such as the Philippines. It seems overly ambitious unless Russia can accelerate its industrialization and have cash to spend, like you said. If Russia is somehow assisted with more American support and trade (Vancouver and the remainder of OTL British Columbia being leveraged into an even stronger Pacific trade, boosting Port Arthur and Russian interest in the Pacific) in this process, it's possible that it would be able to have better military equipment and logistics in time for any major wars in the last decades of the 19th century and first decades of the 20th century. So, would the US still have the Philippines and would Russia be prepared to buy it by, say, 1920? Seems plausible, if the other conditions or something along those the lines I mentioned are met.
 
The most logical path for the Philippines will be a strong arm sale to the Germans and then either the Americans or Japanese taking over in WW1.

I am not good at maps. Some states have minor changes, some states will have major changes

Minor changes to state boundaries
Maine - add a small island off their coast Machias Seal Island
Michigan - add large islands between Lake Huron and Lake Superior from Ontario to Michigan
Minnesota - Northern border straight west from northwest point to Niobrara border (OTL North Dakota)
Puerto Rico includes Virgin Islands

Major changes - states west of Mississippi and Missouri rivers
Niobrara, Idaho, and Washington have the northern boundary at 49" 22'. That extra 22' is more farm land and forest until the Pacific coast where Washington gets OTL metro Vancouver.
Idaho - draw a straight line with its border with OTL Wyoming to include the western part, the mountainous part of OTL Montana. It looks like a big box now.
Niobrara - OTL South Dakota to Niobrara river and North Dakota. Includes eastern Wyoming north of Platte and eastern Montana to Idaho border.
Platte (OTL Nebraska) - northern border is Niobrara River with Niobrara (OTL South Dakota). This is only a few miles in most locations. Platte also extends into OTL Wyoming to border with Deseret (OTL Utah) and Idaho.
Oklahoma - land above Red River in OTL Texas pan handle, Amarillo would be in Oklahoma
Texas - land between the Sabine and Brazos rivers. Texarkana, Dallas, Fort Worth, Waco, Lubbock, Galveston, and Houston
Brazos - land between the Brazos and Nueces to Pecos rivers. Abilene, Odessa, Midland, Austin, and San Antonio
Bexar - land between the Nueces River to Pecos River and Rio Grande, includes Corpus Christi, Brownsville, Laredo, and El Paso
Deseret - includes corner of Wyoming to make it a rectangle
California southern border is straight line of Missouri's southern border drawn all the way to the Pacific. California is above the line and Jeffersonia is below.
Jeffersonia - includes OTL southern California, Baja California, and Baja California del Sur

Sonora and Chihuahua are same as OTL Mexican States
Vast Pacific island groups are governed as one entire department

Below is a map of Texas that would show how the rivers divide up Texas into the three states and the portion to Oklahoma.

txrivers.gif
 
Part 28 - Grover Cleveland (Dem) - 18th POTUS, 1889 to 1897

Grover Cleveland became the latest New Yorker to become POTUS. A Democratic Congress aided his policies.

Domestic Policies
Washington and Idaho were admitted as the 45th and 46th states in 1889
Sonora and Chihuahua were admitted as the 47th and 48th states in 1894 and aided in Cleveland's reelection

In tradition of allowing states to enter into the Union regardless of their political affiliation, Oklahoma was admitted as the 49th state in 1897. The name Oklahoma was from the Choctaw tribe meaning "red people". To finally gain statehood though, the tribes had to agree that Oklahoma was open for settlement. Any unclaimed land in the state, could be made available for homesteaders. The various tribes, and bands of tribes in the state organized themselves into the different counties within the state. The capital of the state remained in Muskogee. The opening up of land in 1889 allowed the final push of settlers to come into Oklahoma to make it a state. But the settlement was done in such a way that in the different counties, the base tribes would retain political power. A few counties were set aside for 100% settlement for non-Indians.

The remaining territories in the continental United States left to be admitted to states were Nevada and Arizona.

Cleveland ensured that during his administration, the financial backing of the United States was on gold. Cleveland and the Democrats also lowered the protective tariff.

The naval buildup continues with the battleships joining the various squadrons. The squadron make up was one battleship, two cruisers, four monitors, and various frigates as needed for the twelve naval squadrons in the Atlantic, Mediterranean, Caribbean, and Pacific.

With the naval build up and lowing of tariffs, the national debt increased to $400 million in 1897.

International
The main international event that Cleveland concentrated on was the Sino-Japanese war over Korea. The official American position was to remain neutral. Cleveland and the Democrats were fine if Korea changed hands as long as long as trade with all parts of Asia including Korea remained accessible to Americans. Cleveland actually wanted a neutral, free Korea, but the situation did not merit American involvement.

With the peace that came with the end of the Sino-Japanese War, the United States joined the European nations in renouncing Japan's territorial gains on the Chinese mainland and Taiwan. With this, Japan gave up on its claim to mainland Chinese ports which opened the way for Russian domination but kept Taiwan. The USA was uneasy about both the swift Russian movement into northeast China and Japan's insistence to keep Taiwan. As both Democrats and Nat Reps disliked the moves by both Russia and Japan, there was little that the USA could do but protest as the nation was not united in military action or even revising trade agreements with both countries. The war and the aftermath did aid in the need to modernize and expand the US navy to protect US trading interests.

Note:
So once again, this timeline is getting to be a lot like OTL except that the USA has greater interest and is more assertive in International affairs. Ultimately, this will lead to earlier US involvement in the first global conflict.

Also, if slavery was abolished in the 1870's when would universal voting rights for all American citizens take effect? And who would push for it, I think ITTL it would be the Nat Reps who have lost the South would want to gain the black vote. The problem is that they do not control 2/3's of the state legislatures. But perhaps with the more liberal western states, liberal northeast states and the Caribbean and Southwest states, there is enough motion there to approve of an amendment for universal voting rights. And I would think that ITTL, women would gain voting rights at the same time as former slaves. Also, would the 14th amendment that more accurately defined citizenship and guaranteed equal rights under the law for citizens be needed?
 
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