The Art of the Deal - impact of treaties early in US hisotry

[hzn5pk]

Part 1 - John Adams

Good morning Thomas, I hope that this house suits you well. For me, it has been a lonely, frustrating existence. But for you, I see the promise of a new day. Though we differ on political theory and politics, I truly wish you good fortune.

... what follows is a tradition called the Presidential breakfast as an outgoing POTUS entertains the incoming POTUS on inauguration day ....

The last thing that I leave you with Thomas is to always place the needs of our country, the union that binds us, ahead of personal or political affiliation needs. This is what I did by not signing into law, that sedition act even though my own party was for it. Yes, if I had signed those, who knows, perhaps there would have been more unity within my party and you would not be here today.

Never the less, what is done is done, I have no regrets, for those acts would have set a bad example of the tyranny that we fought so long and hard against. So I leave this office and house to you. Take care and remember to place our union, our country ahead of all else.

This was the greeting that outgoing POTUS 2, John Adams to incoming POTUS 3 Thomas Jefferson the morning of Jefferson's inauguration. It would further set the precedent of the peaceful transition of power and hospitality between executive administrations. It would also mark a beginning of a correspondence between the two. Jefferson would actually count Adams as a political adviser. Someone who had opposite political views as himself, but a friend that he could trust that no longer had any deep political ambitions.

 

[hzn5pk]

I have a brief timeline that explores the treaties and congressional compromises that make up those treaties of the 1810's and 1820's. There will be some butterfly effects from these treaties later in the 1840's and 1850's.

To set it up, I have two small POD's

1.) Adams does not sign the Sedition Acts - he signs the Alien acts but not the accompanying sedition acts. OTL, this has little effect as the laws under the sedition acts were rarely enforced. It was mainly a scare tactic though. ITTL, by not signing them, he does stir up the Federalists a little which were already forming around Hamilton and Adams camps.

2.) Meets with Thomas Jefferson on inauguration day. OTL, Adams left in the early morning hours of inauguration day. ITTL, he waits a few hours, sucks in his pride and meets with Jefferson. He re-establishes the relationship with Jefferson sooner. This friendship will have an effect on Jefferson.

 

[GohanLSSJ2]

Would this mean better treatment of Native American and respect for the treaties?

 

[hzn5pk]

Would this mean better treatment of Native American and respect for the treaties?

It might, but treaty or no treaty, the treatment of the tribes would be defined with their relationship with settlers. It was very hard to contain settlers from encroaching on treaty lands. In the end, the US Gov't is going to side with settlers. So the push to remove tribes to the west is likely going to happen no matter what.

I have the major POD for this thread coming up that will define the USA for two generations. I do not have all of the butterflies for it pinned down yet, would like discussion to help with the probabilities.

 

[hzn5pk]

Part 2 - Thomas Jefferson

John Adams and Thomas Jefferson continue their correspondence and renew their friendship. Other than the letters with Thomas, Adams rarely gets involved with politics. Although the two differ vastly on their political views regarding the federal government, Adams is closer to Jefferson than he is to Hamilton as he views Jefferson as more of a gentleman and less of a scoundrel than he does of Hamilton.

The parting words and continued letters from Adams to ensure a strong Union weigh heavy on Jefferson. In their letters, Adams admits that something has to be done about a rise in English infringement of American freedom of the seas. Jefferson is proposing an embargo. Adams comments that as he also dislikes the British actions searching American ships and seizing sailors, but an embargo would hurt the north east and mid Atlantic economies that are linked to trade. He also points out that it might be hard to enforce and that although he would not work against a federal law, the history of the bay state is to go around measures that they deem as encroachment on their rights. With this and advise from his Treasury Secretary, Albert Gallatin, Jefferson avoids the embargo acts, opens more dialogue with Britain while making moves to strengthen the US Navy and the US Army in the Northwest. Along with strengthening the military presence, he uses more diplomacy with the tribes. Although he does not want armed conflict with Britain, he wants to be prepared and wants to counter the constant British pressure on the tribes. However, due to the circumstances in Europe, the stopping of American ships and impressing of sailors continues.

When his second term is complete, in tradition with James Madison on his inauguration day, Jefferson has the President's breakfast and passes on the wisdom that the Presidency is more than promoting personal beliefs and party stance, It is to maintain a strong union of the states and to look at the national interests as a whole.

 

[hzn5pk]

Part 3 - James Madison (4th POTUS - 1809-1817)

The presidency of James Madison can be seen as an extension of Thomas Jefferson's policies in the beginning.

Tensions with Britain continue to be high as the British continually disrespect American neutrality and freedom of the seas. Although Madison does not want a conflict with Britain, he is receiving pressure from Congress, from his own party to declare war on Britain. This faction of Congress is labeled as the War Hawks. In a compromise with the War Hawks, Madison increased the size of the Navy, created the US Naval Academy, and pursued an Indian policy that was to eliminate any threat resulting in the collapse of the Confederacy movement lead by Tecumseh. With this, he gave into the wishes of Secretary Gallatin and approved the continuation of the charter to the Bank of the United States. In further compromises for 1813, he also approved the profits of such bank to not only be used on the military upgrade but also for internal improvements for roads and canals in the Bonus Bill of 1813.

The Northeast liked the continuation of the bank, enjoyed peaceful resolution to the conflict with Britain but disliked that the improvements would mainly benefit the West and South. As a further compromise, funding by the Federal government for internal improvements would augment efforts by states and individuals, in a way that one particular state would not receive favoritism. In an ironic twist of fate, the Northeast may have benefitted the most with the completed construction of the Eerie canal in 1822.

Peace with Britain - to further the peace effort with Britain and to quiet the growing call for war by the War Hawks, Monroe included Henry Clay, a leader of the Hawks on a peace commission with John Quincy Adams to broker a lasting peace with Britain. The two formed a life long partnership. The resulting Treaty of 1813 with Britain established freedom of navigation for the Americans ending the mass impressment policy of the Royal Navy. It was not necessarily the treaty, but the end of the Napoleonic wars which brought back freedom of the seas.

In the beginning of his term, Madison was seen as an extension of Jefferson. By the end though, he had forged a newer path by the extension of the national bank and federal funds for internal improvements.

With his more nationalistic views, James Madison was largely responsible for the continued decline of the Federalist party. This would continue into the presidency of James Monroe.

 

[ThatRomanFanatic]

Nice bro!

 

[hzn5pk]

Part 4 - Further treaties with Britain

The Treaty of 1813 was the beginning of a diplomatic and general good relation with Britain. Further treaties were the Adams-Bagot treaty in 1817 that demilitarized the border with British North America and the Great Lakes. Seeing the Americans were of strength in the Northwest, the British favored the bill as their goal of establishing an Native American state in the Northwest would not come to fruition. This also diverted more American funding from military to internal improvements.

Convention of 1818 - this treaty mainly concerned the northern border between the United States and British North America. Through the 1783 treaty that ended the Revolutionary War and the Louisiana purchase, the border was established through watersheds. A goal of the convention of 1818 was to establish a more definable goal. Through further exploration, the source of the Mississippi River was south of where it was originally thought to be in 1783. Also key to the American positon were reports that the Red River drainage area would be favorable to agriculture purposes. Key to this border was the placement of the Northwest angle in the Lake of the Woods. As a compromise, the Americans accepted the location of the British placement of the Northwest angle at 49 degrees 22 minutes on the Lake of the Woods. The British accepted the American proposal that from this point, the border should be straight west to the Rocky (Stoney) Mountains. The British had wanted to place the border as far south as possible to the 49th parallel. The Americans stipulated that the spirit of the 1783 treaty was to have a straight border at the Lake of the Woods westward. The Americans also agreed to British fur trading companies having 5 more years of activity in what would be the Red River area and be compensated 3 million dollars. The convention did not address the boundary with the Maine country and the Oregon country.

With warmer relations with Britain and a spirit of negotiation and compromise set, the Monroe presidency with John Quincy Adams as Secretary of State was now free to negotiate a treaty with Spain regarding Florida and the southern boundary of the Louisiana Purchase.

 

[hzn5pk]

Another POD is established with the border of American Louisiana territory and British North America Red River/Rupert's Land. This is to have the straight line boundary be 49" 22' straight west to the Rockies. It has little effect now in 1818-1819 but will have an effect when negotiating the Oregon country in the upcoming decades.

Fast forwarding to 20th century, the added '22 above the 49th parallel in OTL North Dakota and Montana adds more farm land to OTL North Dakota and Montana.

Winnipeg will probably still be the regional large city and residents of the area will be drawn to Winnipeg to the North and Fargo and Grand Forks in North Dakota.

 

[r1ncewind]

´Well, more farmland is always good =)

 

[hzn5pk]

´Well, more farmland is always good =)

That and there is probably a 75% chance that just like OTL, the line separating the USA and British North America in Oregon will be to continue the 49" 22' west to the Pacific. This would mean that most of OTL metropolitan Vancouver, BC would be in the USA. Butterfly this a hundred years, this timeline's Vancouver may not be as large as OTL, but will still be a major city in the Northwest. May be more competition with Seattle.

This might mean a larger Victoria on Vancouver Island for BNA/Canada being the leading seaport on the Pacific. Victoria would probably be larger than OTL with Vancouver being smaller. That and sprawl of the American Vancouver would include a Canadian city as well similar to Detroit and Windsor.

That and what would a name be for the American settlement at the mouth of the Frazier River and Puget sound? It still might be called Vancouver with OTL Vancouver, WA across from Portland OR being called something else like North Portland or simply Fort Vancouver after the British fort.

I am thinking that is how Oregon will be settled, but we shall see.

 

[hzn5pk]

Part 5 - Adams-Onis Treaty

Along with the successful negotiation with Britain for the Convention of 1818, John Q. Adams was working on a treaty with Spain to purchase Florida and address the southern boundary with New Spain. Andrew Jackson had proven Spain's inadequacy to protect American interest in Georgia from marauding bands of the Seminole tribe based in Florida. In fact Jackson, crossed the border into Florida many times in pursuit of the Seminoles the Spanish were ineffective to stop him. Adams proposed to purchase Florida from Spain.

Seeing an opportunity with a weaker Spain that was confronting open revolts in a number of her colonies, Henry Clay communicated to his friend and colleague Adams to pursue a policy to purchase Texas, New Mexico, and California from Spain. The Spanish were initially resistant to the proposal but after looking at the hard facts that the area was thinly populated, they could not now even protect the Spanish citizens of the area from Native Americans (New Mexico settlements), and that the funds collected for these areas would aid in putting down further revolts in New Spain and elsewhere in the Spanish Empire. That and the Spanish saw American expansion west into Texas as inevitable. The Spanish eventually agreed in a payment of $30 million dollars for the purchase of Florida, Texas, New Mexico, California and the Spanish claim on the Oregon country.

Further agreement from the Americans were to recognize Spanish sovereignty over the rest of their possessions in the Americas such that the Americans would not fund or fuel any of the independence movements and the Americans saw the right for Spain to intercede at any time henceforth in the affairs of any territory that Spain had once been in charge of excluding those that that the Americans had acquired in 1803 and now with this treaty. (basically no Monroe Doctrine)

The Treaty was passed by Congress in 1819 and went into effect in 1821

Although the Americans had purchased a large portion of territory, the exact borders of Texas, New Mexico and California were not exact and would be a point of contention between the United States and Mexico in the future.

 

[hzn5pk]

Part 6 - Missouri Compromise

With the growth of America from the addition of the lands from the Adams-Onis treaty known throughout American history as the Spanish Purchase, the argument concerning the expansion of slavery westward was ever poignant. As the sections of the country quarreled regarding the expansion of slavery, Henry Clay worked on a compromise to end the bickering and settle the differences between the North, West, and South.

The Missouri Compromise brokered by Clay was essentially:

1.) Missouri would be admitted as a state with its state constitution that allows slavery. Maine will also be accepted forthcoming as a free state. So would set a general pattern of admitting states free and slave to maintain balance in the Senate.

2.) A line was drawn at Missouri's southern border to the Pacific ocean, all territory south of the line in the Louisiana and Spanish purchases were to be open to slavery, all land north of the border would be free, slavery would be prohibited in this territory.

 

[Kirook]

So the US achieves Manifest Destiny before Manifest Destiny is ever conceived of. Interesting. If any of the precious metal deposits in the West are discovered early (Nevada, the Black Hills, the upper Rockies and especially California) we could see butterflies start to flap their wings as westward migration begins three decades early.

 

[hzn5pk]

So the US achieves Manifest Destiny before Manifest Destiny is ever conceived of. Interesting. If any of the precious metal deposits in the West are discovered early (Nevada, the Black Hills, the upper Rockies and especially California) we could see butterflies start to flap their wings as westward migration begins three decades early.

Right now, I see Cal Gold rush happening a decade sooner, 39ers.

Main deterence to settling west is getting there logistally.

After Cali would be color rush in 1840's.

Then either Montanna or Black Hills or both kind of at same time.

Purchasing Tex, NM, and Cal in 1819 was the major POD that I have. Not only is manifest destiny taken care of, but so is the debate over slavery expansion with MO compromise to the Pacific.

This leads to some questions.
Can slavery actually work in west texas, new mex, so cal?

Also, how will the abolitionist movement go? Where will be there fighting ground? The movement will grow and gain momentum just like OTL. Maybe they will be the pushers of popular sovereignty and make New Mexico their battleground for no slavery.

I also see the likehood of OTL Texas being two states. One being Dall, Hous, and Austin and the other being San Ant and El Passo.

I also see conflict with Mex over borders sometime in the future.

 

[hzn5pk]

The next hickbup to national unity will be the Tarriff.

Us Nat debt with the 30 mil to Spain is more than otl.

The Tarriff will be low right now due to the Panic of 1819 and recovery.

Sometime in the 1820's it will most likely be raised to aid in debt reduction.

The South which is used to a low tariff and which does not want the high tariff will balk some.

 

[mrmandias]

Can slavery actually work in west texas, new mex, so cal?

Also, how will the abolitionist movement go? Where will be there fighting ground? The movement will grow and gain momentum just like OTL. Maybe they will be the pushers of popular sovereignty and make New Mexico their battleground for no slavery.

I also see the likehood of OTL Texas being two states. One being Dall, Hous, and Austin and the other being San Ant and El Passo.

I also see conflict with Mex over borders sometime in the future.

Slavery seems like it would work pretty well for mines. Also for forestry operations. But ranching, dunno. There were some huge ranches in West Texans and NM, with many cowboys, but the idea of slave having a horse and being off on their own riding fences doesn't seem like it would work well. The slave would just keep riding. However, the settlers of those areas may not care too much about abolishing slavery either. They will mostly not be northerners. As far as popular sovereignty goes, there will be no dispute that a state can abolish slavery once admitted, so all in all, the political salience of abolitionism may be a lot lower ITTL. Which is probably worse for the slaves.

 

[Beausoleil]

I also see conflict with Mex over borders sometime in the future.

With so much land already acquired, I suspect that if the border disagreement turns into a war, the US would annex most of northern Mexico.

 

[hzn5pk]

Slavery seems like it would work pretty well for mines. Also for forestry operations. But ranching, dunno. There were some huge ranches in West Texans and NM, with many cowboys, but the idea of slave having a horse and being off on their own riding fences doesn't seem like it would work well. The slave would just keep riding. However, the settlers of those areas may not care too much about abolishing slavery either. They will mostly not be northerners. As far as popular sovereignty goes, there will be no dispute that a state can abolish slavery once admitted, so all in all, the political salience of abolitionism may be a lot lower ITTL. Which is probably worse for the slaves.

I have direct, first hand knowledge of ranching as I was a ranch hand for several summers in my teenage years. The pay sucks but you have meals and lodging paid for. I worked in the hay fields, fixing fences, and on horseback. I agree, ranching is not conducive to slave labor.

Mining ???? we shall see. How about factories??? I am curious why no textile factories were established in the South, say Charleston, Virginia, Savannah using slave labor for the workforce.

Also, from visiting Surprise, AZ (Phoenix Metro, West Valley), I was amazed to see how much agriculture they have. They grow everything there. I thought it was a desert. The question is the irrigation and canal technology that is needed to sustain these corporate farms available in the 1840's and 1850's. Probably not.

I was envisioning New Mexico being a battleground because the original Spaniards would not be too welcoming of slavery. Northern abolitionists would target New Mexico to settle and make it a free state. The fight would be in Congress approving the state constitution that made it a free state. Maybe not a bleeding Kansas, but a situation that causes friction. Southern California might be the same way.

 

[hzn5pk]

With so much land already acquired, I suspect that if the border disagreement turns into a war, the US would annex most of northern Mexico.

I have an idea of how the war is sparked. Santa Ana will still be key. It will be centered on border disputes and perhaps to keep the North Eastern states in line with Mexico City. A question will be does the US want more Mexican territory than what it has with the Spanish Purchase? Perhaps Manifest Destiny turns to North and South instead of West? Slavery expansion has been covered with Missouri Compromise to the Pacific, but as time goes on the North will not want to add further territory that would be open to slavery, just as OTL. So, I do see some more expansion in Mexico, the North West of Mexico, OTL Sonora, Baja California, and Chihuahua are prime candidates as they are sparser population than North East Mexico and would be needed for a southern railroad. These areas are not conducive to chattel agricultural slavery, we shall see if slavery works in mines. The boundary is also very unclear where New Mexico ends and Sonora begins. Also, the USA may think that they have all of California and the Mexicans may think that it is only Alto California. ...... I envision a larger Gadsden Purchase acquisition of North Wast Mexico.