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This is a major event in a TL I sometimes think of doing, and would like to know how plausible it is.

A few basic assumptions to consider beforehand:

Red Afghanistan: The Soviet Union has emerged from Afghanistan with a military victory. The DRA survives, but an Islamist insurgency will continue for years to come.

The Winter of Nations: The Revolutions of 1989 have been brutally suppressed thanks to the intervention of the Red Army, ensuring the survival of the Eastern Bloc.

The War on Terror: Early in 2000, al-Qaeda launches major terrorist attacks in New York and Moscow, killing thousands of civilians. In response, the US and USSR launch a joint intervention in Sudan, the nation that harbors the terrorist group responsible for this atrocity.

The Rise and Fall of the Soviet-American Alliance and the Arab Cold War: The joint US-USSR effort is initially successful. However, it soon becomes clear that the two superpowers have very different goals for the nation. South Sudan soon becomes an independent nation under Soviet sway, while the North is under American influence. Other disagreements in the region serve to further rupture the alliance. The US denounces continued Soviet support for Syria, Libya, and Palestinian liberation groups; the Soviets decry the American alliances with Saudi Arabia, other gulf monarchies, and Israel.

The Iran-Iraq Switch and the Fall of Saddam Hussein: Since the 1990s, Ba'athist Iraq has largely been isolated by the wider world. The US has considered Iraq an enemy since the unsuccessful 1991 invasion of Kuwait, while Saddam's brutal repression of the Kurds and Iraqi Communist Party and a percieved willingness to stir conflict with the US and Israel has led the Soviets to cut ties.

Meanwhile, the Soviet Union and Iran develop closer relations. Both share a mutual suspicion of increased US involvement in the Middle East; both share an opposition to Israel and support for the Palestinian cause; both share common allies in Syria and Libya. These and other motives motivate the Soviets and Iran to develop an effective military alliance by 2005. Emboldened by this new alliance, the Iranians, with Soviet and Syrian support, eventually provoke a Shiite revolution in Iraq that overthrows Saddam by 2010.

With this scenario in mind, how might the Arab Spring develop in a world still dominated by US-USSR competition? What effect would the failure of the Eastern Bloc democracy movements have on it? Might it kick off earlier, the Shiite revolution in Iraq prompting similar uprisings in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain? Might we still see civil wars in Syria and Libya? What of the Yemens, still separated into North and South thanks to the continuation of the Cold War? Would the US act to save Mubarak? Would the US and the USSR be as willing to intervene in the Middle East as they have in OTL, or might the risk of superpower confrontation lead them to take a more hands off approach?
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