"The Answer Is Liberal": Australia After Hawke

[TheBrunswickian]

24 March 1990

The results had begun to come in. Over the course of the night it had been clear it would be close between Bob Hawke and Andrew Peacock. Hawke had been Prime Minister since 1983, and at just over seven years in office, he was the longest serving Labor PM Australia had ever had. 1990 was supposed to be his final election campaign. He had agreed to hand over to Paul Keating, his long-suffering Treasurer and long seen as next in line for the leadership.

Peacock on the other hand, was leading the Coalition against Hawke for a second time. In 1984, Hawke had gone to an early election despite the protests of his Cabinet. Peacock had been unable to oust the Prime Minister, and was himself, removed by his long-time rival, former Treasurer John Howard. However, Howard’s leadership was abruptly ended after the 1987 election, which he failed to do any significant damage to the Labor majority. Peacock moved against Howard and recaptured the leadership once more. He, along with Nationals leader Charles Blunt had run a fierce campaign against Hawke.

A redistribution hurt Labor’s electoral prospects. Isaacs and Moore had been Labor gains in 1987, but had become Liberal notional, and the divisions of Henty and Streeton in Victoria had been abolished. And despite a strong campaign, Labor was unable to absorb the blow of the loss of critical seats in Victoria. Despite a strong challenge, Bob Catley was unable to reclaim Adelaide, which Labor had lost in a by-election in 1988. In Kingston, a challenge from Democrats leader Janine Haines unseated Labor’s Gordon Bilney, marking the first time that Democrats had won a seat in the House of Representatives.

Fighting strong challenges against Nationals MPs Ian Robinson and leader Charles Blunt in their seats of Page and Richmond respectively, Labor significantly reduced their majorities, but was unable to swing them. The Coalition however, faced its own challenges. Labor won Morton, Fairfax and Kennedy in Queensland. In North Sydney, the Liberals faced a brutal challenge from independent candidate Ted Mack, but managed to narrowly retain the seat.

As the results of the election came in, Hawke knew he was done. Aston was gone. Ballarat and Bendigo had both fallen. The regional Victorian seats were all falling to the Liberals. Hawke sought to phone Paul Keating, who was watching the results come in from his electorate office in his western Sydney seat of Blaxland.

Hawke said very little. “Well Paul, this isn’t the result we wanted, ay mate?”

“No, it certainly isn’t Bob.”

“I trust you’ll be my successor then. No one else is ready for the job.”

When the ABC confirmed that Andrew Peacock was to be the next Prime Minister, Hawke resolved with his advisors and family he would announce his resignation as Labor leader in his concession speech, as well as his intention to leave parliament within six months. “Not much point allowing the wound to fester” he argued.

​

The final results were tallied: Coalition 75, Labor 72, Democrats 1.

With a fragile majority in the House, Peacock would need to keep his votes tight. Labor was down, but not out.

 

[LouisTheGreyFox]

I like to see more of this.

 

[GSD310]

Some potentially interesting dynamics at play here:

-Keating felt that Hawke stayed on as PM and Labor Leader for too long not only because he wanted to be leader but because he's worried that by the time he became leader, it would be nearly time in the electoral cycle for the people to turn away from Labor. Wondering now whether Keating will stay and become Leader of Opposition or he will walk away ala Costello in 2007. Would give the government a hell of a time as a Leader of Opposition, methinks.

-Peacock as PM, Hewson as Treasurer. Wondering what kind of economic reforms we're going to get from the Libs from government. Wondering as well if Howard still fancies himself as a PM down the track.

 

[Darth_Kiryan]

Holy crap!!!!!

Now this is a TL I am interested in watching. Now many Aussie TL's get my attention, but this one, so close and so relevant to me.

Hawke losing makes everything interesting, and so much more for Keating not being PM. Might also butterfly away Howard, unless he does something to upset Peacock.

Color me surprised that Ballarat actually went Liberal in 1990.

 

[TimTurner]

Watched.

 

[Pangur]

We have way to few Aussie t/ls so this one is fab to see and its full of potential. Just how the Peacock government will get much done with 75 seats will be of note. How did the vote in the Senate vote go?

 

[TimTurner]

I expect Keating to be a good Opposition Leader. I hope you are ready for him, Peacock.

 

[Sanderford]

We have way to few Aussie t/ls so this one is fab to see and its full of potential. Just how the Peacock government will get much done with 75 seats will be of note. How did the vote in the Senate vote go?

In 1990 the majority threshold was seventy-five seats in the House of Representatives, so the Peacock Ministry has literally just enough seats to act as a government. One by-election lost, or one defector, is big trouble.

In short, they have zero margin for errors. They will need to use a mixture of pragmatic caution and decisive boldness in the right moments to avoid losing favor, and thus seats.

 

[Hunter W.]

Paul Keating as leader of the federal opposition will be nice.

Peacock will have to deal with the snowballing recession.

To be fair, Peacock should have won, considering there was a financial crisis in Victoria.

 

[Sanderford]

Given how close to each other the Government and Official Opposition are in terms of seats, a contentious vote may see Jeannine Ferris thrust into the limelight.

 

[TheBrunswickian]

​

25 March 1990

“Well I think Bob knew that this was going to be his final election campaign, I don’t think he was expecting it to end quite like this,” Paul Keating told ABC’s Kerry O’Brien. “Look its disappointing, but I don’t think that the Liberals will be able to effectively respond to the economic crisis this country is facing.”

“Will you be standing for the Labor leadership?” O’Brien asked.

“Look, I will be. I want to hold this government to account.”

***​

1 April 1990

Andrew Peacock was sworn in as Prime Minister by the Governor General, Bill Hayden on the first of April 1990. His ministry was also sworn in, with John Howard notably being locked out of Cabinet and relegated to the backbench, fuelling speculation that Peacock still worried about a potential return of Howard. Keeping his rival on the backbench allowed Peacock to groom the talent he was eyeing as his successors – Alexander Downer, Peter Reith and John Hewson, notably getting senior positions in the Cabinet in Defence, Finance and Treasury respectively.

At the same time, Paul Keating was elected Labor leader unopposed and promised to “give them hell”. Keating kept his opposition frontbench very similar to that of the Hawke ministries, with Kim Beazley being elected as his Deputy Leader. Keating made it clear that he was going to fight the Peacock government and make use of the fact it held only a one seat majority. He noted that “when you have a majority of one, you get beholden to the nutjob terrorists on the backbench”.

The results of the Senate election had also been confirmed at this time. Labor was declared to have won 14 seats, bringing them a total of 31. The Coalition parties collectively also won 14, bringing their total to 34. The Democrats won 5, giving them a total of 8, and Jo Vallentine was elected on the WA Greens ticket.

From the Prime Minister’s Courtyard, Peacock delivered his first speech as leader of the country. “The reckless actions of the former government will be no more. The dangerous economic policies of the Labor Party, that caused this recession we find ourselves in now, will be brought to an end”. Peacock immediately tasked John Hewson with fixing the dire economic situation the country was in.

***​

Paul Keating, meanwhile, was making quick work of the government. During Question Time, his stinging one-liners bit into Peacock’s resolve. Despite the fact that Keating’s economic reforms had brought Australia into recession, the Opposition Leader’s fiery comments in the chamber exposed Peacock and Hewson’s inability to address the economic situation.

“Mr Speaker,” Keating was to famously declare, “how is the Prime Minister planning to bring down the unemployment figures when he himself has increased the number of Liberal leaders without jobs?” The Labor benches erupted in laughter, while Peter Reith, the Leader of the House, moved the question out of order. Keating’s strategy was to highlight the resentment John Howard felt towards the Prime Minister, and cast the government as divided between its conservative and moderate factions.

 

[Darth_Kiryan]

Andrew Peacock was sworn in as Prime Minister by the Governor General, Bill Hayden on the first of April 1990. His ministry was also sworn in, with John Howard notably being locked out of Cabinet and relegated to the backbench, fuelling speculation that Peacock still worried about a potential return of Howard. Keeping his rival on the backbench allowed Peacock to groom the talent he was eyeing as his successors – Alexander Downer, Peter Reith and John Hewson, notably getting senior positions in the Cabinet in Defence, Finance and Treasury respectively.

Ah yes, John Howard. Regardless his OTL tenure was rather powerful, and is the first PM that I actually remember. That said, with Howard pushed to the back benches pretty much all of his rivals here are in the cabinet, still, it is a pity though, but that is politics.

For reference its rather like Abbott sent to the back benches now whilst Turnbull is in command.

with Kim Beazley being elected as his Deputy Leader.

Oh yes, excellent choice. Gotta love the Bomber.

“Mr Speaker,” Keating was to famously declare, “how is the Prime Minister planning to bring down the unemployment figures when himself has increased the number of Liberal leaders without jobs?” The Labor benches erupted in laughter, while Peter Reith, the Leader of the House, moved the question out of order. Keating’s strategy was to highlight the resentment John Howard felt towards the Prime Minister, and cast the government as divided between its conservative and moderate factions.

Damn man, that's a nice call.

 

[Spens1]

It will be interesting to see how Peacock and the libs deal with a potential recession. Also any timeline with no PM Howard is a good timeline.

 

[TheBrunswickian]

-Keating felt that Hawke stayed on as PM and Labor Leader for too long not only because he wanted to be leader but because he's worried that by the time he became leader, it would be nearly time in the electoral cycle for the people to turn away from Labor. Wondering now whether Keating will stay and become Leader of Opposition or he will walk away ala Costello in 2007. Would give the government a hell of a time as a Leader of Opposition, methinks.

Keating and Costello are very similar in many ways; both Treasurers in governments they aspired to lead, and both under leaders they felt stuck around too long. However, Keating got sick of waiting and took the leadership, whereas Costello never took that chance. When Keating took the leadership, he was still quite young but by the time Costello had a chance to take the leadership, his time had passed.

I expect Keating to be a good Opposition Leader.

His aggression and stinging one liners would have made him a good Opposition leader.

Peacock will have to deal with the snowballing recession. To be fair, Peacock should have won, considering there was a financial crisis in Victoria.

Peacock will have a lot on his hands when it comes to the recession. The economic crisis in Victoria did hurt the Hawke government, they lost basically all the regionals, but they were able to cushion themselves OTL with gains in NSW and Queensland.

For reference its rather like Abbott sent to the back benches now whilst Turnbull is in command.

Exactly. Abbott may be gone, but he doesn't see himself as out. Howard in this case will definitely see himself as returning to the leadership. Peacock is caught between a rock and hard place.

 

[Darth_Kiryan]

Exactly. Abbott may be gone, but he doesn't see himself as out. Howard in this case will definitely see himself as returning to the leadership. Peacock is caught between a rock and hard place.

Howard was very good - adept, from what I saw at playing the political game well enough

 

[Darth_Kiryan]

Also any timeline with no PM Howard is a good timeline.

Dunno.
I mean, the ten years of Howard were at least stable - and under one Prime Minister, when compared to the last 10 years where we have had 4-5 people backstabbing each other....

 

[Spens1]

Dunno.
I mean, the ten years of Howard were at least stable - and under one Prime Minister, when compared to the last 10 years where we have had 4-5 people backstabbing each other....

that is entirely true. The Libs were very stable under him and the coalition was going well, plus Labor were united because they had to really to stand a chance against him. They did know what party they were at least.

I just meant that he was an insufferable prick (plus anyone who is that poor at bowling should have a motion of no confidence against him) and still kind of is.

 

[Sanderford]

I'd say Peacock just needs to keep his cool and not react to Keating's jabs. At some point Labor supporters will want Keating to start actually talking points, not just hurling insults.

He (Peacock) might want to throw something Howard's way as a sop, just to be safe.

Peacock, for his part, should spare no opportunity to bring up the fact that the recession was a product of Paul Keating's own policies, and should make very public efforts to fight it.

 

[astor88]

I'd say Peacock just needs to keep his cool and not react to Keating's jabs. At some point Labor supporters will want Keating to start actually talking points, not just hurling insults.

He (Peacock) might want to throw something Howard's way as a sop, just to be safe.

Peacock, for his part, should spare no opportunity to bring up the fact that the recession was a product of Paul Keating's own policies, and should make very public efforts to fight it.

 

[astor88]

when did the investigation into Mr L Murphy start