The Anglo-Saxon Social Model

Clegg Ministry (2011-2014)
Nick and Olly: The Premiership of Nick Clegg
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Nick Clegg talking to 'Daily Mail' political editor Dave Cameron for a profile, November 2011


With most of the Liberal parliamentary party somewhat shell-shocked by the revelations surrounding Leveson, there was far from a crowded field to take the leadership. (Not least, many suspected, because whoever did would also have their heads shot off by the Inquiry.) In the end, Nick Clegg put his hand up. Relatively well known in the public for his work as Education Secretary (2005-08), Environment Secretary (2008-09) and Foreign Secretary (2009-11) and liked amongst his parliamentary colleagues, in many ways he seemed the natural choice. Paul Marshall, from the party’s right, attempted to launch a leadership campaign in response but failed to gain enough nominations from MPs to have his candidature put to the membership. Clegg was thus crowned as leader (and prime minister) without a vote.

In response, Labour, under its new leader Yvette Cooper, immediately tabled a vote of no confidence and the Liberals entered into hurried negotiations with the Conservatives. Although he attracted criticism from his own backbenches for this decision, Letwin agreed to support the government on a confidence and supply basis going forwards. At a special conference of his MPs, Letwin was able to face down his internal opponents and Clegg’s government survived the vote, albeit with a few Conservative rebels.

Clegg got a lot of credit, particularly amongst more liberal newspapers such as the ‘Daily Mail’ and the ‘Herald,’ for holding his nerve and dragging the Liberals through the crisis. For his troubles, his discussions with the Conservatives had produced a substantial policy agenda. Although the Conservatives did not formally join the government, everybody understood the nature of the quid pro quo that Clegg and Letwin had agreed between themselves. Most notably, the Liberals all of a sudden found themselves adopting (or at least partially adopting) a number of policies regarding electoral and campaign finance reform that had been Conservative hobby-horses for many years.

Following the Queen’s Speech in September 2011, the centrepiece of the government’s agenda was the Campaign Finance Bill. In the first place, the bill set up a ‘Register of Lobbyists’ and put in place a raft of measures to put chinese walls between lobbying and MPs. Beefed up regulations were instituted around the Register of Members’ Interests and regulations put in place preventing officials and ministers from meeting with MPs on issues on which the MP in question is paid to lobby. To compensate, MPs were given an above-inflation pay rise. Backbench MPs would now earn £800,000, shadow ministers £1,000,000, ministers £1,400,000 and the Prime Minister £1,800,000 (in all cases plus expenses). In addition, the voting age was lowered to 16. Finally, a limit of £10,000 was placed on individual annual political donations. Initially drafted so as to include cooperatives, companies and the trades unions, this proposal was watered down in committee by Labour MPs who simply would not play ball on this. On the tax front, the government raised the minimum allowance before taxation to £20,000.

Perhaps the most dramatic proposal, however, regarded voting reform. In 2011, the government set up the Gove Commission on Electoral Reform, chaired by the Conservative Michael Gove and made up of representatives from the three national parties and the four nationalist parties. The report was eventually published in January 2013, suggesting a change to the UK’s electoral system to STV. Following a review of the Gove Report in committee, it was agreed that the proposed change to the electoral system would be put to a public referendum in the summer, ahead of an election some time in either the winter of 2013/14 or the spring of 2014.

The referendum itself was a quietly revolutionary moment in British politics. Referendums had been held in various other Commonwealth countries for a number of reasons - the most politically contentious and famous being the 1975 referendum in Pakistan over the legalisation of civil partnerships - and, during the run of admissions to the Commonwealth in the ‘60s and ‘70s, a referendum in the soon-to-be former-colony became the accepted capstone on that nation’s accession to full membership of the Commonwealth. But there had never been one in the UK itself before, even though they had been proposed many times on any number of topics, from civil partnerships, the single currency and even the expansion of the internet. While constitutional lawyers and judges grumbled about it, most people seem to have been relaxed about the vote’s implications for the future.

From April 2013, Labour shadow ministers, MPs and donors began to come out against the change of electoral systems, providing a united front in contrast to the divided opinions in the Liberals and Conservatives. Labour’s campaign for a ‘No’ vote sought to play on the unpopularity of the Liberals, who, despite a Clegg bounce following his appointment, had lagged firmly behind in the polls since then, with there being particular controversy surrounding the wage rises for MPs. The Labour First Minister of Greater London Ed Miliband described the referendum as an opportunity to punish the Liberals at the polls.

Controversy was aroused, in June, when the No campaign claimed that implementing STV would cost over £200,000,000, a figure which included the cost of holding the referendum in the first place as well as speculative calculations of the cost of voting machines. This injected a degree of rancor into the referendum that would have shocked outside observers who had assumed, at the outset, that this would be a rather sedate affair. In a particularly bizarre incident, Home Secretary Chris Huhne went so far as to threaten legal action against the Shadow Chancellor (and prominent ‘No’ campaigner) Ed Balls for spreading what he called “lies” about the costs of changing the voting system. Elsewhere, much of the public debate centred around questions of the desirability of coalition governments (the British government was divided on this, despite the reasonable performance of the Steel-Mount coalition in the 1990s) and how many safe seats would be removed under the potential new system.

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However, the debate failed to electrify the public discourse and was conducted in a fractious atmosphere that was devoid of much serious debate. It was a disappointing moment for Britain’s political reformers, setting back the cause of electoral reform by at least another decade. The referendum also did much to poison the atmosphere between Labour and the other parties in the Parliament, with Labour’s underhand and vicious electioneering causing a great deal of frustration and private anger amongst Liberal and Conservative MPs. There was some loose talk amongst the leadership of the Liberals and the Conservatives that they might try and push electoral reform through Parliament regardless of the referendum but, in reality, the votes just weren’t there to make it work: both parties had notable numbers of MPs who were opposed to reform and both had even more who thought it was mad to so openly reject the verdict of a referendum; and that was without facing up to the problem of trying to pilot it through the Lords, with its in-built Labour majority.

The Liberal minority government continued in place for just under another year, managing the government reasonably well without really accomplishing much. They failed to recover their position in the polls, however, and, despite a reasonably thorough record of domestic reform, few Liberals had any great confidence when Clegg dissolved Parliament and went to the country in July 2014.
 
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Nick Clegg talking to 'Daily Mail' political editor Dave Cameron for a profile, November 2011

Is the Mail as much of a right wing shit stirring rag here? I feel like their brand of media wouldn't be as welcome in that political environment.

The Tories championing electoral finance and voting reform is a beautiful twist.

The referendum failing is less fun. I guess party lists make it less necessary, but it's still quite sad. On the other hand, with party lists already a thing, the UK should probably give up on STV and aim for something like Germany does, where wasted voted go to the party list to create a proportional system while retaining local representation.
 
Is the Mail as much of a right wing shit stirring rag here? I feel like their brand of media wouldn't be as welcome in that political environment.

You're right. The only real equivalent of OTL tabloid culture by this time is probably the Mirror, which has a tone basically a bit like the OTL Sun although is generally of a pro-Labour bent (but it did endorse the Liberals in 2005 so go figure).

The Mail isn't nearly as right wing as OTL but is generally Liberal-leaning.
 
You're right. The only real equivalent of OTL tabloid culture by this time is probably the Mirror, which has a tone basically a bit like the OTL Sun although is generally of a pro-Labour bent (but it did endorse the Liberals in 2005 so go figure).

The Mail isn't nearly as right wing as OTL but is generally Liberal-leaning.

Better media culture goes hand in hand with better political culture.

Do they have media fairness rules? That could maybe be part of the reform packages around elections?
 
I do appreciate that the "heroes" of this story can still be flawed humans; despite their ideology obviously aligning closely with the author's (and my own).

Labour can still be cynical, ambitious, and willing to play dirty - they're not perfect paragons of justice.
 
Is this going to have long term implications for the Liberal-Conservative relationship? Though perhaps they care less given a semi proportional system is already in place - actually, given that, what is the Conservative motivation for further electoral reform?

Are the figures for new salaries correct? I’m just taken aback slightly because they’re all more 10x what they are ITTL.

(Think there’s also a small error in the info box - gives the referendum question as changing from “first past the post”.)
 
Is this going to have long term implications for the Liberal-Conservative relationship? Though perhaps they care less given a semi proportional system is already in place - actually, given that, what is the Conservative motivation for further electoral reform?

Electoral reform has been a Conservative hobby-horse for a while now mostly because they perceive themselves as being screwed over by the constituency element of the current system. (They're doing alright TTL because of the introduction of the list MPs but in the constituencies they are still facing kind of similar problems to what the OTL Liberals suffered in the 1970s.)

Are the figures for new salaries correct? I’m just taken aback slightly because they’re all more 10x what they are ITTL.

TTL the pre-reform salaries for MPs were £250,000 and £1,200,000 for the PM (I don't have figures for ministers and shadow ministers but they'd be somewhere on that continuum). (There have been various increases over the past century, reflecting the general more robust economic health of the country and so forth.) So, as you can see, the Clegg-era increase isn't as massive as they'd be OTL but they are still pretty large and are controversial.

(Think there’s also a small error in the info box - gives the referendum question as changing from “first past the post”.)

The British electoral system is still commonly referred to as FPTP even though that's not particularly accurate so the commission charged with drawing up the referendum question chose to phrase it that way in order to avoid confusing the public.

Better media culture goes hand in hand with better political culture.

Do they have media fairness rules? That could maybe be part of the reform packages around elections?

Newspapers online have accidentally found themselves bound by the same fairness rules that apply to television and radio broadcasters. This is an outgrowth of the more state-involved and gradual growth of the internet, where the original belief was that basically only the CBC would migrate wholly online. Thus Commonwealth regulations stipulated that the same impartiality rules that govern the CBC would govern its online entity but the regulations were drafted in such a way that they ended up covering not only all Commonwealth media entities when they migrated online but also non-Commonwealth entities that want to be viewed in the Commonwealth. As you can imagine, this periodically causes upset, particularly from American media entities, but nobody has changed the rules yet, although there is a movement to move the governance of these impartiality regulations from the Commonwealth to the UN.

I do appreciate that the "heroes" of this story can still be flawed humans; despite their ideology obviously aligning closely with the author's (and my own).

Labour can still be cynical, ambitious, and willing to play dirty - they're not perfect paragons of justice.

Thanks, I appreciate that very much.

And, yes, the pitfalls of Labour having become the establishment is going to play an important part as this TL heads towards its denouement in the next two decades.
 
The General Election of 2014
The Laws of the Game: Liberal Failures in 2014
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2014 was bruising for the Liberals but hardly unanticipated. A well-run Labour campaign hammered at the standard Liberal failings - their tax cuts for the rich, lack of competence in administration, awarding themselves a large pay rise (although Labour notably didn’t promise to reverse these) etc. - but were able to add to this concerns about the divisions in the party over the STV referendum. The Liberal campaign in response was weirdly apathetic, with Clegg cutting a stoical but strangely apathetic figure on the campaign trail. Strangely enough for someone who had achieved the highest political office in the land (albeit in unusual circumstances), Clegg revealled himself to be a man of remarkably poor political instincts, simply expecting people to appreciate him for making what he believed to be the tough but fair long-term political choices without him actually really making the case for them.

Many Liberal true-believers - especially in light of what would happen to the party in subsequent years - would argue that this was a missed opportunity: Labour’s campaign was slick and well managed, as always, but never quite caught the public imagination as previous ones had. If only, some said, Clegg had pulled his finger out then he could have continued, maybe this time in a more formal coalition with the Conservatives. From there on in, many of these arguments devolved into the kind of fantasies of uniting the Whigs and the Tories into a grand anti-Labour alliance that had been common currency across much of the British political discourse for some time (including on the centre-left - some of Mount’s Conservatives being notably more left wing on many points than some technocratic Labour MPs).

In truth, the poorness of the Labour campaign can be overstated. After Gimore’s resignation in 2009, Yvette Cooper had been elected leader, another technocratic manager in the mould of Rodgers and Beckett. She was not the most intelligent, but she was sharp enough. She was not the most charismatic, but she could get her ideas across and hold a room. Many ascribed this continued preference for the managerial and competent (the more unkind might say ‘dull’) to a kind of hereditary mistrust of Ramsay MacDonald’s cult of personality in the 1920s. The analytical reality of this assertion can certainly be questioned by historians - Hugh Gaitskell and Barbara Castle were nothing if not, in their own ways, tub-thumping socialist rabble-rousers of the old school, a fact now conveniently forgotten - but there certainly was something distinct about the internal culture of the Labour Party (and, by extension, the political culture of the country it so-often governed) which meant that it resisted the general television age (and, increasingly, internet age) impulse towards charismatic ‘vibes’ candidates over the dull technocrat.

Something else which lessened the chance of a continued anti-Labour alliance was the way that Liberal and Conservative relations had been poisoned by the surprisingly bitter referendum campaign in 2013. Although the Conservatives had dutifully voted through the government’s confidence and supply motions, few bothered the deny the extent of the distance between the parties by the time Clegg called the election. Letwin, in particular, was furious that Clegg had reneged on what Letwin, at-least, thought had been a promise that the Liberals and Conservatives would campaign together in favour of electoral reform. According to more than one source he had to be talked out of bringing the government down over the Autumn Statement of 2013. (The truth is a little more complicated than this partisan story: Clegg was privately in favour of electoral reform but could not take a firm position in order to overcome potential splits and preserve unity amongst his own MPs.)

Whatever the subsequent ‘what ifs,’ the result was boringly predictable. As the campaign closed, Labour weaponised the Leveson Report to remind everybody of Ahern’s resignation and paint the Liberals as the party of sleaze and graft. A gain of 65 seats gave Cooper a workable(ish) majority of 15. It was hardly the stuff dreams are made of but it was the kind of lead Labour had worked with before. The Conservative vote held up reasonably well too, with a few people disappointed that Letwin didn’t join the government formally causing the party to lose five seats at the margins. Nevertheless, this left them, with 57 seats, ahead of where they had been even under the legendary leadership of Ferdinand Mount.

For the Liberals, a loss of 58 seats was quietly devastating. Although they remained above the psychologically significant number of 299 (just), there was no doubt that the verdict from the British people on the Clegg ministry had been one of repudiation. They were back near the levels they had been in 1981, in the aftermath of the Thatcher disaster, or in the 1950s, when they had flailed around in response to Labour’s sudden hegemony. What was all the more depressing about this repudiation is that it did not come after a period of economic disaster. Thatcher’s government had bungled the response to the ongoing Sterling crisis. Steel’s coalition had been unfortunate to have to deal with a recession towards the end of their term. In slightly different ways, their subsequent defeats were understandable.

In the case of 2014, what really was there to cause such repudiation? Sure, there was the simmering scandal around Ahern’s corruption. But that was, comparatively, ages ago and by 2014 Ahern was gone and so were his closest cronies. The truth was, things didn’t seem fair anymore. Labour had suffered scandals before: one of their officials in the 1960s had even turned out to be a spy! But none of it seemed to stick. On top of this, Labour always seemed to manage to style out the economic downturns they faced whereas they always killed a Liberal government. Most sighed and put their shoulders to the wheel once more, promising themselves that next time they would be better and things would be different. But others did not.
 
Might prove myself weird asking transport related questions, but just a question poped out of my head : Does London maintain the multitude of railway termini's is having today (around 14, i remember, more on other counts), or British Railways managed to centralise its london stations?
 
Might prove myself weird asking transport related questions, but just a question poped out of my head : Does London maintain the multitude of railway termini's is having today (around 14, i remember, more on other counts), or British Railways managed to centralise its london stations?

That's a very interesting question and, to be honest, not one I have very firm views on. I suspect that the existence of high speed rail for several decades by now would have lead to a certain amount of consolidation, perhaps with some stations exclusively serving cities further away and others focusing more on local and suburban destinations.
 

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That's a very interesting question and, to be honest, not one I have very firm views on. I suspect that the existence of high speed rail for several decades by now would have lead to a certain amount of consolidation, perhaps with some stations exclusively serving cities further away and others focusing more on local and suburban destinations.
That means rent price is evenly distributed with high speed rail instead of being concentrated in one city.
 
Looks like it's starting to be time to challenge Labour from the left, they're kinda losing their identity.
Probably the only way that they could be challenged in this TL. All power corrupts and there's an unpleasant stale air of cynical corruption about Labour now. They've simply been in power for too long.
 
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