The Anglo-Saxon Social Model

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by Rattigan, Dec 17, 2018.

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  1. Rattigan Well-Known Member

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    Yes. In James Belich's 'Replenishing the Earth' (probably the most interesting academic history book published this century - worth checking out if you can find an affordable copy) he describes the US by 1900 as effectively a giant British capital market and the US government as basically an extension of the British one. I wouldn't go quite as far as him (and when I spoke to him in the last year he admitted that he was trying to be provocative), especially on the second issue, but it's worth considering when thinking about the fin de siecle period in general.
     
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2019
  2. Rattigan Well-Known Member

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    The Italians are certainly less of a joke ITTL than IOTL but I don't think they're in a position to just declare a protectorate over the whole of Turkey (not that they wouldn't like to, of course). Albania will come up in the peace conference: they were, after all, the cause of the whole war.
     
  3. Threadmarks: Great War Casualties, 1913 - 1919

    Rattigan Well-Known Member

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    So, a quick little update today giving approximate casualty figures (in each case rounded to the nearest 1,000) in the Great War.

    I'll follow up hopefully later this week with a long update on the peace conference and resulting treaty. I'm afraid that that update will rather prove my lack of photoshop skills because I won't be giving a map or anything or the redrawn Europe. But I'll give details of what territories are moved around (and, if relevant, their OTL equivalents) so hopefully that'll work for everybody.

    * * *
    Entente
    Arabia (1916-1918): 35,000 killed; 54,000 wounded; 89,000 total
    Armenia (1913-1918): 60,000 killed; 98,000 wounded; 158,000 total
    Belgium (1913-1918): 50,000 killed; 37,000 wounded; 87,000 total
    British Empire (1917-1918): 215,000 killed; 229,000 wounded; 444,000 total
    Bulgaria (1913-1918): 336,000 killed; 120,000 wounded; 456,000 total
    French Empire (1913-1918): 1,700,000 killed; 5,000,000 wounded; 6,700,000 total
    Greece (1913-1918): 33,000 killed; 26,000 wounded; 59,000 total
    Italy (1918): 18,000 killed; 54,000 wounded; 72,000 total
    Japan (1917-1918): 360 killed; 900 wounded; 1,260 total
    Montenegro (1913-1918): 17,000 killed; 13,000 wounded; 30,000 total
    Portugal (1917-1918): 7,000 killed; 14,000 wounded; 21,000 total
    Romania (1918): 36,000 killed; 63,000 wounded; 99,000 total
    Russia (1913-1918): 3,006,000 killed; 6,600,000 wounded; 9,600,000 total
    Serbia (1913-1918): 563,000 killed; 166,000 wounded; 729,000 total
    United States of America (1913-1918): 1,056,000 killed; 1,934,000 wounded; 2,990,000 total

    Total for the Entente (1913-1918): 7,132,360 killed; 13,530,900 wounded; 20,663,260 total


    Central Powers
    Austria-Hungary (1913-1918): 1,937,000 killed; 4,750,000 wounded; 6,687,000 total
    Belgium (1915-1918): 24,000 killed; 19,000 wounded; 43,000 total
    Germany (1913-1918): 2,551,000 killed; 5,270,000 wounded; 7,821,000 total
    Ottoman Empire (1913-1918): 965,000 killed; 955,000 wounded; 1,920,000 total

    Total for the Central Powers (1913-1918): 5,477,000 killed; 10,994,000 wounded; 16,471,000 total
     
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2019
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  4. Threadmarks: British Empire Casualties, 1917-18

    Rattigan Well-Known Member

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    Also, because this is an Anglocentric TL, here's how the British Empire casualties break down:

    United Kingdom: 142,000 killed; 150,000 wounded; 292,000 total
    Australia: 24,000 killed; 26,000 wounded; 50,000 total
    Canada: 22,000 killed; 23,000 wounded; 45,000 total
    New Zealand: 7,000 killed; 8,000 wounded; 15,000 total
    Newfoundland: 1,000 killed; 2,000 wounded; 3,000 total
    South Africa: 2,000 killed; 2,000 wounded; 4,000 total
    India: 16,000 killed; 17,000 wounded; 33,000 total
    Other Colonies: 1,000 killed; 1,000 wounded; 2,000 total

    Total: 215,000 killed; 229,000 wounded; 444,000 total
     
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2019
  5. Threadmarks: Paris Peace Conference, 1918-1919

    Rattigan Well-Known Member

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    The Treaty to End all Wars: The Treaty of Paris, 1919
    UK - Versailles.jpg USA - Versailles.jpg Russia - Versailles.jpg France - Versailles.jpg
    The Big Four: (left to right) images of the British, American, Russian and French delegations to the Paris Peace Conference.

    Following the Armistice of Cochem, the various Entente leaders met in Paris in September 1918 to attempt to thrash out the future of the world. There was no pretence of negotiations with the Central Powers: none of Germany, Austria, Hungary or the Ottomans was even invited. Their job was to sort out their own internal politics and then come to sign the treaties when the time was right. This was useful as a way of demonstrating the totality of the Entente’s victory in its various theatres but caused the unintended problem of bringing the splits within the Entente to the fore. At the heart of this was the uncomfortable truth that the Entente was not an alliance of friendly nations but rather a confederation of countries who, for one reason or another, had considered it to be in their interests to go to war against Germany and her allies at some point between 1913 and 1918.

    The conference started off on a bad footing when the American delegation raised an official complaint about the size of the British delegation. The British delegation certainly was large – approximately five times larger than the American one – because it incorporated representatives from Australia, New Zealand, Canada and South Africa. But at the time it was not clear what this intervention was supposed to achieve, beyond allowing Roosevelt to remind everyone that he (and America) intended to be big players at the conference. It certainly did that but it also left a bad taste in the mouth, especially amongst the British.

    The first order of business, and the least contentious, was the divvying up of the German Empire in Africa. France was awarded Togoland and the greater part of Kamerun (with a western strip being awarded to Britain). German East Africa was awarded to Britain and Ruanda-Urundi went to Belgium as a kind of roundabout apology for having been invaded and occupied for five years. German South West Africa was awarded to America, their second African colony after Liberia. Almost immediately, things got more contentious, initially over the future of German New Guinea and German Samoa. All of the United States, Japan and the United Kingdom wanted to have them as part of their plans to control the Pacific. Eventually, the United States was awarded German Samoa while Japan got all of the other islands north of the equator and Britain got the territories south of the equator.

    Things then moved on to the issue of dismembering the three European empires. France’s aim here was straightforwardly one of revenge for the nearly 7,000,000 casualties killed and wounded they had suffered during the war (the equivalent of around 1 in 3 men in metropolitan France) and Georges Clemenceau, the French Premier, was eager to disestablish the German Empire and dismember the Rhineland into a series of French-dominated republics. The Bolsheviks clear aim was that the people of eastern and central Europe should be offered self-determination (unless they were within Russian territory, of course). Roosevelt too entertained wild plans for American protectorates in Europe. The British position was a more cynical one: desperate to keep Germany a viable counterweight against a vengeful France and a communist (and therefore unreliable) Russia.

    In addition to the secession of Bavaria, Germany lost Alsace-Lorraine to France, who also received the Saar region as a 15-year protectorate. Additionally, northern Schleswig was transferred to Danish sovereignty and Moresnet to Belgian. Negotiations over the east were more complicated. Volunteer Polish legions had been raised during the war and fought on the side of the Entente, leading many to argue that the time had come to restore a Polish homeland. However, much of historical Poland was within Russia and it was clear that there was no question of Russia giving that up. Instead, they came up with a compromise. The German provinces of Posen, Silesia and West Prussia were combined with the Austrian provinces of Silesia and Galicia & Lodomeria and the Hungarian districts of Pressburg, Kaschau and Ruthenia to create the awkwardly named Polish-Slovakian Commonwealth.

    The Habsburgs were to recognize Austria and Hungary as separate nations under the same monarch, something that Franz Ferdinand had done anyway via the Budapest Declaration of 16 July 1918. In addition to the territories already awarded to Poland, Austria lost South Tyrol and Trentino to Italy; Istria, Dalmatia and Bosnia to Serbia; and Bukovina to Romania. Hungary lost Transylvania south of the Mures river and east of the Somes to Romania; and Banat to Serbia.

    In the Balkans, Northern Epirus was carved out of Albania and awarded to Greece while the rest was renamed Arbanon and gifted to Italy as a protectorate. It was a surprisingly dismissive end for the country that had, after all, caused the whole war. Greece was also rewarded with Smyrna and the surrounding territory; Bulgaria was awarded the European side of the Marmara region; and the Hejazi Kingdom was granted international recognition as the sovereign of the Arabian Peninsula and the former Ottoman territories in the Middle East south of Asia Minor; Armenia was also carved out of the Ottoman vilayets of Van, Erzurum, Mamuretulaziz, Bitlis, Dlyarbekir, Sivas and Trebizond. It was agreed that Kurdish representatives would have a referendum on their independence when agreement could be reached on their borders at a future date. Constantinople (as it was now officially called) was declared an independent international city.

    It was over the question of reparations that the British found their delegation under the most pressure. Russia and France were keen to extract as much money in reparations as they could from the defeated powers, not just out of vengeance but also to allow them to pay back their substantial loans to the UK. The Americans, in a better financial position than their allies, sided more closely with the British, arguing that the Central Powers should pay some reparations but they should be kept to a minimum (perhaps only to cover the partial cost of the war). However, this emerging Anglo-American united front was shattered in January, when President Roosevelt fell ill from the Spanish influenza sweeping the world. Following Roosevelt’s death on 29 January, the conference was delayed for a month and, when it began again, new President Hiram Johnson had decided on a very different approach.

    Johnson’s attitude was that the United States should not have gotten involved in the war in the first place and that, given that they had, his sole duty was to extract the maximum possible monetary payment from the Central Powers and then return home with as few international commitments as possible. Thus, South West Africa and Samoa were handed to Britain and he took a far more aggressive attitude towards Central Powers reparations. Over two months of hard negotiations, the eventual price of reparations was set at: £7,000,000,000 to be paid by Germany; £100,000,000 to be paid by each of Austria and Hungary and £40,000,000 to be paid by the Ottomans. These were enormous sums, especially considering that each of the four defeated combatants were already struggling under their own depleted treasuries and loans owed to foreign (primarily British) creditors in any event. John Maynard Keynes, a member of the British delegation, forcefully argued that these levels of reparations would be un-repayable and would only lead to resentment in those countries. Privately, many agreed but were not in a position to argue.

    The final big outcome was the establishment of the League of Nations, based in Constantinople. The charter was drawn up by a predominantly-British commission headed by Jan Smuts, Arthur Balfour and Lord Bryce. Although initially conceived as the first step towards a unified global government, it soon became clear that Russia and France would not tolerate the presence of the Central Powers, at least initially. Eventually it was agreed that it would comprise a regular meeting forum for the various members of the Entente but even that wish came to an end in March 1919, when President Johnson made it clear that the United States had no intention of being involved. When its structures were agreed in May 1919, it was little more than a talking shop for members of the Entente. Nevertheless, it was the first worldwide intergovernmental organization with the principal mission of maintaining world peace through collective security, disarmament and arbitration, and many people were excited about its possibilities.

    When the final Treaty of Paris was signed with the Central Powers on 10 April 1919, it was the culmination of a peace process of truly vast scope. But, at the same time, it was one where few could say they came out totally satisfied: Germany, Hungary and what was left of the Ottomans all nursed continued grievances over their territorial dismemberment; Austria looked nervously over its shoulder at an emboldened Serbia and communist Russia; Poland had no natural borders and faced, once more, being caught in between the vice of Germany and Russia; Russia felt angry at not having got its way; France still felt that its gains had not avenged the deaths of all of its citizens; Italy felt that the odd bits of territory they got was scant reward for 18,000 dead; the list went on and on. But it was, however, a peace, at least for now.
     
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2019
  6. Analytical Engine Monarchist Collectivist Federalist

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    That's a lot of Germans in Poland-Slovakia. Are they going to be forcibly deported to Germany, allowed to remain, or a mixture of both?
     
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  7. Rattigan Well-Known Member

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    It's a complete ethnic mess of a country made necessary by the fact that there was no question of Russia giving up their bit of Congress Poland. There aren't provisions for the expulsion of Germans (although doubtless some will leave) and the idea of bringing Slovakia into the confederation was that the three ethnicities might balance each other out to some extent.
     
  8. Analytical Engine Monarchist Collectivist Federalist

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    Yes, there's no way this could possibly go wrong.

    Also, was all of Galicia-Lodomeria included, or were the Ukrainian-majority bits given to Russia?
     
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  9. Rattigan Well-Known Member

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    No, all of Galicia-Lodomeria went to Poland. Russia didn't actively seek territorial increases in Paris: their focus was more on ensuring that Germany, Hungary and Turkey were properly dismembered.
     
  10. Kammada Well-Known Member

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    Does Ruthenia correspond to OTL's Subcarpathian Rus/Transcarpathian Ukraine? If this is so, then Russia has got an exclave separated from the mainland by the Polish-Slovak Commonwealth.
     
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  11. Rattigan Well-Known Member

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    You're right, that's a mistake. It should have gone to Poland. I'll correct that.

    I'm sure there will be a bunch of slight errors in that update because it's hard to keep the geography right in my head so feel free to pick me up on anything that seems dodgy.
     
  12. EnvarKadri Well-Known Member

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    What happened with Czechia? Wouldn't b3 more viable to make them a triple federation? Maybe its get renamed Zapadoslavia in the future. Also it make sense for them to come together, after all they must be terrified and surrounded by germany and Bolshevik russia.
     
  13. pjmidd Well-Known Member

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    Surprised the Czechs are not a separate state given their actions OTL once A-H was on the ropes.
     
  14. Kiwigun Well-Known Member

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    Say did japan gain their racial equality in the treaty?
     
  15. EnvarKadri Well-Known Member

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    How does exactly work the city state of Constantinople? If none of its citezens were expelled from there then iirc it must be around 50/50 muslim/chriantian population, most of the muslim population is pretty turkified and the christian one is more diverse with big armenian and greek comunities and smaller bulgarian and others, so i guess it must be a oficially biligual (turkish and greek) state. All of this means that is on the eyes of its three neighbours (turkey, greece and bulgaria), being the seat of the Society of Nations I guess its defence runs on the british navy. I guess the dardanellas are also in control of Constantinople, and therefore the british navy, I guess most countries would be interested in having those sensible straits in control of the same entity, and away from the nationalistic conflicts of its neighbours.
    The current borders among greece, turkey and bulgaria are unsustainable. Smyrna is dificult to defend from greece, also there is alot more turks then greeks in general. And Greece and Bulgaria have big conflicting territorial claims on each other, so if there is a second round between Greece and turkey, bulgaria may take the chance and also attack Greece. Also there is Italy, who even in otl had imperialistic ambitions on greece and reclaimed albanian habitated parts of greece (whicht are bigger in this tml), and also peaces venetia and naples hold in the past. And they are way better in this tml than in ours. Of course it old depends of what the british decide to do, but apart of defending Constantinople and the straits I doubt they would care whats going on. Attaturk rises and the turkish Independence war is going to come.
    Also how is the russian civil war going?
     
  16. Rattigan Well-Known Member

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    So my idea regarding Constantinople TTL is that it would be run similarly to the OTL Tangier International Zone. So it has a commission of control and judicial council appointed by the members of the League of Nations and is under nominal joint Bulgarian and Greek sovereignty. Naval support is provided jointly by the Royal Navy and the Red Fleet, which are cooperating uneasily in the Aegean and the Black Seas.

    The Russian Civil War outside of Siberia is wrapped up by the middle of 1919 because the Entente doesn't provide aid to the Whites (and, indeed, actively impedes their supplies of arms and munitions). Fighting continues in Siberia for a few more years but nothing consequential. The Bolshevik regime is definitely dictatorial ITTL (there are no elections, for example) but the Red Terror hasn't occurred.

    I'll touch on the civil war in Asia Minor in the next update.
     
  17. Rattigan Well-Known Member

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    Nope, for the same reason as IOTL (i.e. the Australians wouldn't wear it).
     
  18. Rattigan Well-Known Member

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    So I was originally going to address this in my update on central and eastern European developments but I think it probably makes more sense for me to address it here. So, the short answer is that what is now modern OTL Czechia remains with Austria.

    One of the reasons why von Hotzendorf's crazy military strategies work ITTL (at least for the first three years) is that Austria-Hungary is better prepared for a Russian war ITTL than IOTL. Consequently, although they're badly mauled by 1918, it's not nearly as bad as IOTL and mostly concentrated in Hungary and Galicia (which is gone anyway). This is then compounded in 1916, when Franz Joseph dies and is replaced by Franz Ferdinand rather than Charles. IOTL Franz Ferdinand had several ideas for federating the empire, which obviously never eventuated. ITTL, he is able to use the defeat in 1918 as an opportunity to cut Hungary loose (which he wanted to do anyway, both IOTL and ITTL) and create a rudimentary federal framework for the remaining Austrian half. This means that there isn't the impetus for the Czechs to bail out when things really go south in 1918 (which is what caused the whole Habsburg empire to unravel IOTL) and, combined with the British putting pressure in Paris to be less harsh on the Central Powers, this ensures that the Habsburgs remain in power in Vienna and Austria is larger than IOTL (so roughly the same area as OTL Austria, Czechia, Trieste as well as the Gorizia, Upper Carniola, Central Slovenia, Coastal Karst, Inner Carniola and Southeast Slovenia regions of Slovenia). A federal constitution is passed in June 1919, which federalises the remaining empire as the United Empire of Greater Austria (along the lines of the states proposed by Aurel Popovici ITOL, minus the bits seceded or in Hungary, of course).
     
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2019
  19. EnvarKadri Well-Known Member

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    Wait, what? The italian let austria keep part of the slovenian coast?
     
  20. pjmidd Well-Known Member

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    That's unlikely , in Bohemia especially the thought of staying as anything in a state with the German lands is pretty dead by 1910, they might accept Franz Ferdinand as a symbolic head of state in a personal union but no more. No way the Italians are letting them keep Trieste, they don't want an Austria that can contest the Adriatic. In any case 1918 is far to late to offer, by then the Entente will have offered the Czechs a state of their own and that's far more alluring.
     
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