I’ve been thinking recently (having read through this thread for ideas for my own timeline [thanks again CalBear]) that if the war hadn’t resumed until the 60s, then the Allies May have just decided by that point to go full SIOP-62 on Germany and most of Western Europe.
If the war hadn’t resumed in ‘54, I do think the Allies (the Brits in particular) would have to downsize their army to be able to stay afloat financially, and compensate for this by upping the nuclear game.
Potential scenario:
- Heydrich survives Anthropoid
- Himmler dies in a Partisan assassination whist visiting Waffen-SS forces in 1950-ish and Heydrich replaces him
- Hitler dies earlier (in AANW-verse), say 1953 and never orders the St Patrick’s Day Raids
- A Heydrich-Speer duopoly succeeds Hitler (I’m not 100% familiar on Nazi power dynamics, but this seems like it could work)
- The Warm War continues through the 1950s and into the 1960s, during which:
- The Allies continue to increase their nuclear stockpiles
- The costs of the HUGE standing armies doing nothing adds up, maybe also idle soldiers causing unrest, and the ground forces are downsized
- The Allied Naval and air forces remain mostly the same
- Anglo-American strategic air forces have developed SIOP style plans to launch an all-out strike against the Nazis
- The Nazis continue to suck Europe dry of resources, slave labour (and general will to live in many areas)
Thereby the Reich ends up in a ”do-or-die” scenario when they end up running on empty where they perceive doing nothing as certain defeat whilst doing something may work (and when I say may, I mean extremely unlikely, but desperate dictators can justify anything to themselves). Let’s say that by 1965 the Reich has reached such a weak stage where it all starts going wrong and the leadership (lets assume it’s Heydrich) believes that one show of strength is enough to shock the Allies into a status-quo peace (sort of like OTL Korea, or the 1956 Russia-Japan declaration).
The Germans conduct said show of force (largely akin to St Patrick’s Day Raids) c.1965, striking British (and possibly American) cities. Then the following happens:
- The Germans offer a status-quo peace which the Allies promptly refuse.
- The British react to this attack by nuking 6-7 German cities (CalBear said that this nearly happened after the St Patrick’s raids, so it’s possible)
- Germany reacts by dropping nerve gas on British cities
- The SIOP-esque plan is enacted after the nerve gas strikes (I am making it up from here on in):
- Basically all of Germany, France and the Low Countries are totally destroyed
- Italy gets its teeth knocked out, losing Rome and other major cities
- Norway also suffers intensely, but not as much as Germany
- The Balkans and the rest of Southern Europe gets off relatively lightly
- Eastern Europe falls into anarchy with Nazi authority gone
What do you guys think of this? Is this a somewhat plausible scenario? If so, where from here? Can the Allies deploy forces to Europe? Maybe only to key strategic areas like the Channel ports or Scandinavia?
What do you think?