Jefferson Davis' resignation as Secretary of War may end up being a blessing in disguise: it means that there won't be a SoW that openly sympathizes with the increasingly secessionist Southern establishment in charge of the weapons, so there may be fewer weapons in federal armories in the South overall (which would hinder the South's early war effort substantially).

In some very significant ways, the South is coming into this imminent civil war a lot weaker - politically, economically and militarily - than IOTL.
 
Well let's see what spark ignites the Civil War ITTL.


Whigs foaming at the mouth in hysterical joy for tarriffs.

Knowing how things went... poorly in OTL, the fact its worse ITTL is rather depressing.
Oh the Whigs do love their tariffs and internal improvements.
And yeah, it is rather depressing. The situation won't necessarily be worse, but it will last longer than OTL.
Jefferson Davis' resignation as Secretary of War may end up being a blessing in disguise: it means that there won't be a SoW that openly sympathizes with the increasingly secessionist Southern establishment in charge of the weapons, so there may be fewer weapons in federal armories in the South overall (which would hinder the South's early war effort substantially).

In some very significant ways, the South is coming into this imminent civil war a lot weaker - politically, economically and militarily - than IOTL.
Indeed, although Davis's resignation doesn't matter that much because Seward will have a brief grace period before it begins.
The south is definitely weaker -- things are tense, but not quite as tense as OTL 1860.
 
Indeed, although Davis's resignation doesn't matter that much because Seward will have a brief grace period before it begins.
The south is definitely weaker -- things are tense, but not quite as tense as OTL 1860.
The very long gap between election and inauguration provided the secessionist sympathizers in the outgoing Buchanan administration to try and bolster the resources at the South's disposal, with things like John B. Floyd transfering over 100 thousand firearms to the South in 1859 and 1860 (though his attempts to also redeploy heavy artillery to the South was blocked by Buchanan):
After his resignation, a congressional commission in the summer and fall of 1861 investigated Floyd's actions as Secretary of War. All of his records of orders and shipments of arms from 1859 to 1860 were examined. It is recorded that in response to John Brown's raid on Harper's Ferry, he bolstered the federal arsenals in some Southern states by over 115,000 muskets and rifles in late 1859. He also ordered heavy ordnance to be shipped to the federal forts in Galveston Harbor, Texas, and the new fort on Ship Island off the coast of Mississippi.[11]

In the last days of his term, he apparently had an intention to send these heavy guns, but his orders were revoked by the President.
Davis also resigned earlier than Floyd did IOTL, which means that during that transition from Douglas to Seward, you might actually get people seeking to preserve the Union in charge of the department, so there may be some movement of weapons out of the South and some movement of troops into forts in the South (no skeleton or sympathetic garrisons to hand over federal forts in the South, which means they'll have to be besieged or attacked).

This TL is, in some ways, the worst possible scenario for the South in an impending Civil War scenario.
 
So big Nebraska...
But, seriously... there would be only 7 large states on the West ITTL?
No. Territorial boundaries don't say very much about what the actual states will look like in the end. It's worth noting that in the OTL Presidential election of 1860 there were also only seven territories in the west (and two states). Needless to say, there are more than nine states in the West in real life!
 
No. Territorial boundaries don't say very much about what the actual states will look like in the end. It's worth noting that in the OTL Presidential election of 1860 there were also only seven territories in the west (and two states). Needless to say, there are more than nine states in the West in real life!
In part 14 there was a mention, that Dakota is still part of Nebraska in XXI century ITTL.
 
The very long gap between election and inauguration provided the secessionist sympathizers in the outgoing Buchanan administration to try and bolster the resources at the South's disposal, with things like John B. Floyd transfering over 100 thousand firearms to the South in 1859 and 1860 (though his attempts to also redeploy heavy artillery to the South was blocked by Buchanan):

Davis also resigned earlier than Floyd did IOTL, which means that during that transition from Douglas to Seward, you might actually get people seeking to preserve the Union in charge of the department, so there may be some movement of weapons out of the South and some movement of troops into forts in the South (no skeleton or sympathetic garrisons to hand over federal forts in the South, which means they'll have to be besieged or attacked).

This TL is, in some ways, the worst possible scenario for the South in an impending Civil War scenario.
I agree 100%. There are a lot of factors combining to weaken the CS and make the Civil War TTL quicker.
A big part of it, though, is less that Davis resigns before he can funnel arms south and more that the upper south is less willing than OTL to consider secession.
What happened to San Juan Islands? And, also, what will happen to Maximilian Habsburg? (OTL Emperor Maximillian I of Mesico)
I'll mention them a little later on in the TL, but they'll be divided basically like OTL.
As for Mexico, without Napoleon III, there won’t be a Second Empire. Maximilian will have a longer, if less interesting, life.
In part 14 there was a mention, that Dakota is still part of Nebraska in XXI century ITTL.
I just checked Part 14 and I didn't see anything about what Nebraska looks like in the current day. Also, the OTL Nebraska territory included Dakota, which was separated during Nebraskan statehood.
 
I agree 100%. There are a lot of factors combining to weaken the CS and make the Civil War TTL quicker.
A big part of it, though, is less that Davis resigns before he can funnel arms south and more that the upper south is less willing than OTL to consider secession.

I'll mention them a little later on in the TL, but they'll be divided basically like OTL.
As for Mexico, without Napoleon III, there won’t be a Second Empire. Maximilian will have a longer, if less interesting, life.

I just checked Part 14 and I didn't see anything about what Nebraska looks like in the current day. Also, the OTL Nebraska territory included Dakota, which was separated during Nebraskan statehood.
"Big Mac said: It depends on where these extra nays come from. Are they northern Democrats? If so, Douglas likely recalculates and tries to appease them – perhaps Nebraska is split into two territories. The northern one (Dakota, perhaps?) could become free territory, while Nebraska and Kansas get popular sovereignty’d"
I understand this "Dakota, perhaps" as "Dakota is still part of Nebraska"(
 
"Big Mac said: It depends on where these extra nays come from. Are they northern Democrats? If so, Douglas likely recalculates and tries to appease them – perhaps Nebraska is split into two territories. The northern one (Dakota, perhaps?) could become free territory, while Nebraska and Kansas get popular sovereignty’d"
I understand this "Dakota, perhaps" as "Dakota is still part of Nebraska"(
That refers to Nebraska territory, not the state of Nebraska.
 
I'm picking up a lot of hints from the discussion that a shorter Civil War under a party perceived as less committed to abolition would result in slavery ending under even less equitable circumstances, possibly after the end of the war in a gradual manumission program (with slave states that remained loyal receiving preferential treatment, of course). This also makes me wonder whether certain states that seceded IOTL would still do so. Even if this outcome may result in less bloodshed and war damage and allow some parts of the South to rebound economically under more liberal leadership (such as in the timeline "A New Dominion" by @MadsMswati where Richmond doesn't get burned), it seems clear that black liberation would be further out of reach without the upheaval of Reconstruction.
 
I'm picking up a lot of hints from the discussion that a shorter Civil War under a party perceived as less committed to abolition would result in slavery ending under even less equitable circumstances, possibly after the end of the war in a gradual manumission program (with slave states that remained loyal receiving preferential treatment, of course). This also makes me wonder whether certain states that seceded IOTL would still do so. Even if this outcome may result in less bloodshed and war damage and allow some parts of the South to rebound economically under more liberal leadership (such as in the timeline "A New Dominion" by @MadsMswati where Richmond doesn't get burned), it seems clear that black liberation would be further out of reach without the upheaval of Reconstruction.
A certain number of OTL Confederate states will stay loyal. The Civil War will definitely be less bloody, though I can't say things will turn out as well as in A New Dominion. The south will emerge with less devastation, but without Reconstruction, I don't think that a 'New South' like what Zebulon Vance envisioned would emerge easily.
 
16. The Gathering Storm
16. The Gathering Storm

“An air of tension hung over the inauguration of William Seward. The disunion that the outgoing President Douglas had warned of had not yet come to pass, but from the sullen faces of those few southerners in attendance, such a thing was no longer an unthinkable act.

Indeed, there was a muted air to the Whigs’ celebrations. Seward undertook a train journey and speaking tour from Albany to Washington by way of Detroit, Chicago, and Cincinnati. Along the way, he greeted crowds of cheering well-wishers who, nevertheless, “had a pall of worry and fear hanging over their smiling faces and gleeful whoops.” His advisors dissuaded him from visiting the south due to the discovery of numerous plots to assassinate him. At his one foray into the south, in St. Louis, Seward was greeted by sullen and angry crowds. The only spectators who seemed excited by his visit were the German immigrants.

In his inaugural address, Seward sought to assure the south that he had no intentions to interfere with the south. “Apprehension seems to exist among the people of the Southern States that by the accession of a Whig Administration their property and their peace and personal security are to be endangered. There has never been any reasonable cause for such apprehension. Indeed, the great preponderance of evidence to the contrary has all the while existed and been open to their inspection.” He declared that “the only true disagreement is that one section of our country believes slavery is right and ought to be extended, while the other believes it is wrong and ought not to be extended [1].” Seward’s address concluded with an appeal for unity: “We are not, we must not be, aliens or enemies, but fellow-countrymen and brethren. Although passion has strained our bonds of affection too hardly, they must not, I am sure they will not, be broken. The mystic chords which, proceeding from so many battlefields and so many patriot graves, pass through all the hearts and all hearths in this broad continent of ours, will yet again harmonize in their ancient music when breathed upon by the guardian angel of the nation [2].”

For all of this rhetoric, Seward did not intend to concede everything to the south, and southerners knew this. “Do not be fooled by his silver-tongued lies,” Preston Brooks declared in response. “He will cast the south’s wishes aside like a worn scarf and force abolitionism upon our fair land.” Southern newspapers branded him a blatant liar, one who would “woo us with the sweetest nothings and then turn around and plunge a dagger into our backs,” as the Charleston Mercury read.”

-UNEASY SILENCE: AMERICA IN THE ANTEBELLUM by John Erwin, published 2021

Presidential Cabinet of William Seward:
Vice President:
Joshua Giddings
Secretary of State: Hamilton Fish
Secretary of the Treasury: William P. Fessenden
Secretary of War: Edward Bates
Attorney General: David Davis
Postmaster General: Cassius Clay
Secretary of the Interior: Joseph Holt
Secretary of the Navy: Jacob Collamer

“The Roman Republic had been extremely fortunate to hold off the Austrian army and preserve Mazzini’s revolutionary government. Garibaldi and the defenders of Bologna became national heroes, and today the monument to the siege of Bologna is a major landmark in Rome. However, the Republic faced an even more dire problem: a crumbling economy. During the frenzy of reform immediately following the revolution, taxes had been cut and expensive work programs instituted. Amid a growing deficit, the government initiated a program of inflation that quickly became difficult to control.

Technically one of the three Triumvirs of the Roman Republic, Giuseppe Mazzini was the first among equals. As such, his fellow Triumvirs and the Assembly turned to him to solve the spiraling economic crisis. The result was an unpopular compromise that was nevertheless necessary: several of the taxes that had been eliminated in 1849 would be restored at limited rates and the popular work programs would be scaled back [3]. During the initial revolution, forced loans were imposed on the wealthy of the Republic, but this was regarded in hindsight as insufficient. Thus, new taxes were imposed on the wealthy of Rome. They were not as high as Mazzini initially wanted, but the government did not want the wealthy to flee the country with their fortunes [4].

The tax increases on the wealthy assuaged popular anger, as Mazzini made it clear that all citizens of the Republic had to make sacrifices to stabilize the economy. Further, he said, they were temporary measures until the Roman economy could properly form. Indeed, during the First Interbellum of 1849-1855, Bologna and Ferrara became bustling industrial cities, rivalling Turin in their prosperity.

All throughout the First Interbellum, the Republic remained vigilant towards the Austrians. The fortifications of Ferrara, Bologna, and Ancona were strengthened, and Giuseppe Garibaldi recruited soldiers from across the Italian peninsula to form the well-trained, unification-focused Army of the Republic. The Republic would need such a disciplined army for the inevitable rematch with Austria…”

-From THE GRAND CONSENSUS: EUROPE 1815-1898 by Rebecca Gardner, published 2001

“Seward had two major goals as President: succeed where Douglas had failed and fund a transcontinental railroad and incorporate as much of the west as possible as free territories. He took the unusual step of calling an extraordinary session of Congress in May 1861 to enact his agenda. This was decried as tyranny by the southern press. As Congress convened, Seward went to work. He first decided to try and negotiate with the south for the railroad. Led by Jefferson Davis and John Quitman, southern Senators informed President Seward that they would support the railroad if Seward would allow Kansas to be admitted as a slave state under the Lecompton constitution and reverse his order that US marshals cease enforcing the Fugitive Slave Act. “Gentlemen,” Seward wrote them, “it is general knowledge that the ‘Lecompton constitution’ is built upon a foundation of fraud and violence.” Setting aside the validity of the Lecompton constitution and the clear desire of Kansans to be admitted as a free state, Seward could not agree to the south’s demands, lest he be vilified by his own party as yet another doughface.

Despite the refusal of Davis and his “cabal,” as Seward privately referred to them, the Whigs forged ahead with the railroad bill. John Crittenden, now a National Unionist, was willing to work with the Whigs on this and led the drive to win southern support. Missouri Senator Sterling Price, despite being a Democrat [5], readily gave his support because of the increased commerce the railroad would bring their state. Sam Houston, an ardent expansionist, supported it because it would facilitate the settlement of the west. Andrew Johnson supported it for similar reasons. Confident, the Whigs proceeded with voting. The House, with a Whig majority, easily approved the bill, with many northern and western Democrats joining them. In the Senate, despite strong denunciations from Davis and his allies, the support of Price, Houston, Crittenden, and Johnson proved decisive. The Pacific Railroad Act passed the Senate on July 26th and was signed by President Seward two days later. Southerners were furious – the Whigs had completely ignored them and, with just a few southern defectors, did what they wanted.

“Is this to be our destiny?” William Yancey thundered at a speech in Montgomery. “Is the south to sit passively as the abolitionist Yankees use brutish force to erode the very foundations of our society, our civilization? Are we to allow the amalgamationist northerners to set the negro loose on our women and children?” Yancey had been dismissed as a rabble-rouser by many southerners just a year before. But now, the south was starting to take note. And Yancey’s frenzied warnings would, in the minds of southerners, become prophetic with Seward’s next legislative push: Kansas.

The Whigs had campaigned on a promise to secure the admission of Kansas as a free state, and Seward intended to make good on that promise. The Kansas Act was introduced on July 22nd into the House by David Wilmot, approving the Lawrence Constitution and bringing Kansas into the union. Naturally, the south vociferously opposed this. “Kansas is, by all rights, ours,” said Preston Brooks during debate. “The Lecompton legislature was robbed of its constitutional authority and violently repressed by a tyrannical Administration.”

Democrats made numerous attempts to table the bill during debate, but the Whig majority united each time to keep it alive. After a week of debate, the House passed the Kansas Act on July 26th, just hours before Congress adjourned for the weekend. All but three southerners voted against it, while all but the handful of doughface northerners voted in favor. The reading of the tally prompted a furor from the southern Congressmen. “This is an affront to the south of the highest order,” Alexander Stephens opined. “I, as much as any other southerner, would prefer to preserve the Union. But the present state of affairs cannot be the permanent order of things if the Union is to endure. That is my solemn warning.”

Nevertheless, the Kansas Act was sent to the Senate, where it faced much stiffer odds. Sterling Price declared his opposition, while Sam Houston was vaguely neutral, and John Crittenden attempted to broker some sort of compromise. Jefferson Davis led the opposition to the Kansas Act, giving a harsh criticism of Seward during debate. “The proposal for Kansas is a mere prelude to the forcible incorporation of the vast west into abolitionist states and the complete subjugation of the south to the north,” he declared. The south was increasingly inclined to agree. Charles Sumner, Abraham Lincoln, and Salmon Chase led the effort to pass the bill. “This is not a question of slavery. It is a question of the validity of the republican values that are the foundation of our great Republic,” Lincoln said. Though radicals, Sumner and Chase made similar arguments made based on respecting the elections held in Kansas, not on the immorality of slavery. Just one southerner joined with all 32 northern Senators in passing the Kansas Act, John Crittenden. He cited the need to support the will of the people, regardless of the electoral outcome, for their yes votes. The south was furious. Crittenden was, by one newspaper’s account, “a corrupt northern stooge.” William Seward was a tyrant, a “modern-day Caesar”, a “black abolitionist.”

Just a day after President Seward signed the Kansas Act, admitting another free state into the union, Congress adjourned for its autumn recess. Southern lawmakers returned to their home states, many furious at the direction that Seward was taking the country. On August 19th, Governor Francis W. Pickens of South Carolina, pressured by members of the state legislature, formally called for a convention to consider secession. The Governors of the states of Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas followed suit. The Union was about to face its greatest test…”

-From BROTHER KILLING BROTHER: THE AMERICAN CIVIL WAR by Michael Yates, published 2019

[1] From Lincoln’s OTL inaugural address.
[2] OTL, Seward suggested this passage for the closing of Lincoln’s inaugural.
[3] Several sources describe how dire the Roman Republic’s economic situation was OTL. I would expect that the assembly would be forced into restoring some of the less onerous taxes.
[4] During the Republic’s brief existence OTL, Mazzini lamented how the wealthy of Rome would defend their fortunes more fiercely than they did the Republic. I can see him wanting higher taxes but reluctantly taking a more pragmatic approach.
[5] As Governor of Missouri, Price expanded the state’s railway network, so I imagine he would support a transcontinental railroad as well.
 
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Maybe Crittenden was there because there was a crossover between The American System and A House Divided Against Itself universes like the Jimmy-Timmy Power Hour trilogy I loved as a kid.
Johnny Henry Power Hour?
It’s like Into the Spiderverse, all of the John Crittendens from other timelines are just appearing!
Now John J. Crittenden just needs to make an appearance in Cinco de Mayo despite being dead for some forty years and then the trifecta will be complete.

@KingSweden24 , I think you know what you have to do ;).
 
Now John J. Crittenden just needs to make an appearance in Cinco de Mayo despite being dead for some forty years and then the trifecta will be complete.

@KingSweden24 , I think you know what you have to do ;).
Zombie John Crittenden, rising from the grave! He will not rest until north and south can compromise at last...
Plot twist: his undead corpse is the lead negotiator between the US and the smoldering crater CS when the Great American War ends
 
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