Introduction
The American System title cardv3.png

"I would rather be right than be President"
-Henry Clay
"Am I not a man and a brother?"
-Anti-slavery slogan

Henry Clay is one of the greatest what-ifs of American history. A man who had such a massive impact on the United States never rose to be its leader, despite his many attempts. But what if Henry Clay had been elected President? If he had been able to implement his ambitious American System? If he had used the Presidency to fight against rising sectional tensions? The easiest way to get him into the White House is to change just a couple thousand votes in New York and Michigan in 1844, but that leaves him to contend with Democratic majorities in the House and Senate. However, if the Whigs had decided to hold their 1839 convention six months later, Henry Clay would have triumphed at both the convention and against an unpopular Van Buren in the general election, and he would have had a friendly Congress to work with. And from there, a Third Bank of the United States is chartered, canals and railroads are built with Federal funding, and the U.S. never goes to war with Mexico.
But what would become of Texas? Of slavery and the south? Of America's growing industrial economy?

What if the man who declared 'I would rather be right than be President' got to be both?


Hi everyone and welcome to my second major timeline! I had originally intended to post this in the far future, once New Birth of Freedom was wrapped up, but as I kept writing I got impatient. So, without much further ado, I present The American System!
 
1. The Convention
1. The Convention

“The Whig Party held their first national convention in late May of 1840, from the 13th to the 16th. Initially planned to be held in December of 1839, the convention was rescheduled for May of 1840. The convention organizers were persuaded by John J. Crittenden to hold it in the year of the election, rather than the winter before. He argued that selecting a candidate closer to the election would allow the convention to better gauge public opinion and select the most electable candidate [1]. While this proposal won broad support among the leaders of the Whig Party, it was proposed exclusively for the benefit of Henry Clay. As the founder, both of the Whig Party and its core ideologies, Clay’s standing had been hurt by a series of Whig defeats in 1839, and it was believed that, should Whig candidates win elections before May of 1840, then Clay would look the more viable candidate. Regardless of Crittenden’s ulterior motives, the convention was rescheduled.

An additional argument was made for holding the convention at a later date – it would allow additional travel time so the delegates from Arkansas, South Carolina, and Tennessee could be present. Of course, Tennessee’s Whigs refused to send delegates to the convention, believing that conventions were un-democratic [2]. However, Whig organizers were successful in persuading Georgia to attend the convention. The Georgia States’ Rights Party considered itself a separate entity from the Whigs, but their close alignment with the national Whigs persuaded them in March of 1840 to vote in favor of participating in the May convention [3]. The Georgian faction would, by 1842, merge fully with the national Whig Party apparatus, with their presence at the 1840 convention a significant factor.

By May 13th, 1840, a week after the Democratic Convention’s end, Martin Van Buren’s chances were slim. His party had failed to even nominate a Vice President and the economy was once again in recession. On the other hand, things looked even better for Henry Clay. The worsening economy and a series of Whig victories in Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Virginia raised party morale. South Carolina, Georgia, and Arkansas all sent pro-Clay delegate slates, further enhancing his support at the convention. He was not without strong opposition, however, with the powerful New York powerbroker Thurlow Weed supporting General Winfield Scott and Pennsylvania attorney Thaddeus Stevens backing General William H. Harrison. While Clay had a solid hold on the southern delegates, Scott and Harrison could rely on strong Northern support due to a quirk of the convention’s rules. Delegates did not vote as individuals, rather, whichever candidate had the most delegates from a state received all of that state’s delegates, which worked against Clay in the north.

The convention assembled in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, on May 13th, a warm and mostly sunny day, at 12:00 noon. The first order of business was to select a convention chair, and former Congressman Isaac C. Bates of Massachusetts was duly selected to fill that post. A number of procedural matters were decided upon, before the delegates adjourned until 10:00 AM the next day. On the 14th, a President of the Convention, James Barbour of Virginia, was selected as the Permanent Chair of the convention, and 13 deputies were chosen. With this accomplished, the convention declared that, on Friday the 15th, the delegates would select the Presidential and Vice-Presidential nominees, and then adjourned for the day.

On the 15th, the convention commenced voting on the Presidential nomination at 3:00 PM. Clay assumed a predictable lead on the first ballot, with 128 delegates. William Henry Harrison, with the support of the Midwest and New England, emerged, with 94 delegates, as a serious challenger to Clay. Winfield Scott, thanks to the efforts of Thurlow Weed, held New York, New Jersey, and Vermont in his column. In the aftermath of the first ballot, with Clay in a tenuous lead, Weed went to the Connecticut delegation to flip them from Clay to Scott, while Clay’s allies, chiefly Crittenden, worked to swing New Jersey away from Scott. New Jersey Senator Samuel L. Southard was a strong supporter of Clay, and he met with Crittenden and several pro-Scott delegates in between the first and second ballots. The efforts of Crittenden and Southard were successful in persuading enough Scott delegates to switch to Clay, while Weed was unable to sway enough Clay men to bring the state into Scott’s column [4].

The second ballot saw only New Jersey change allegiance, giving Clay 136 votes, just four shy of a majority. Pennsylvania remained in Harrison’s column, though Nicholas Biddle had promised to support Clay if he gained support on the second ballot [5], meaning that the third ballot was guaranteed to give Clay a majority if nothing else changed. Thurlow Weed redoubled his efforts to swing Connecticut, while Harrison’s campaign manager, Thaddeus Stevens, went to the Virginian delegates to try and pry the state from Clay. Should both states leave Clay’s column, the addition of Pennsylvania would not be enough to give him the nomination. However, Weed fell short by just three delegates from taking control of Connecticut’s 8 votes, while Virginia remained unshakeable in its loyalty to Clay. The third ballot was the final one – Biddle used his considerable influence with Pennsylvania’s Whigs to give the state’s delegates to Clay. With 166 delegates, 26 more than the minimum, he had won the nomination for the third time. John Owen, on the committee responsible for tabulating the vote results, announced the final results: Clay, 166; Harrison, 94; Scott, 49.

Clay, who had been playing cards with Scott, John J. Crittenden, and George Evans when he received word of his victory at the convention, rushed off to draft a letter accepting the nomination. Read aloud by members of Kentucky’s delegation, Clay’s letter read in part: “with a just and proper sense of the high honor of being voluntarily called to the office of President of the United States by a great, free and enlightened people, and profoundly grateful to those of my fellow-citizens who are desirous to see me placed in that exalted and responsible station. I must say that it is with profound gratitude to those who placed such confidence in me, and to all the distinguished gentlemen of the Harrisburg Convention regardless of which individual they preferred, that I accept your nomination for President of the United States.” Clay also reminded the convention of the ultimate goal: “to rescue our country from the dangers which now encompass it and bring about a salutary change in the administration of the General Government [6].”

The delegates then searched for an appropriate Vice-Presidential candidate. As Clay was from the south, a northerner was needed, preferably one who had supported either Harrison or Scott, to unite the party. Congressman James Tallmadge of New York was proposed and attracted significant northern support. However, his support for an amendment to the Missouri Compromise abolishing slavery in Missouri cost him support in the southern delegations. South Carolina, led by William C. Preston, put forward John Tyler, a former Senator who, while a staunch Clay supporter, was also a state’s rights conservative. Tyler did not get much traction outside of South Carolina, and Clay himself stated his preference for a “balanced ticket.” Former Senator Thomas Ewing of Ohio was also proposed, but his ties with the Catholic Church (His wife and children were Catholics) sunk his chances, as Catholicism was still viewed with suspicion at this point in American history.

Congressman Millard Fillmore of New York was proposed just before voting began as a northern alternative to the controversial Tallmadge. A moderate on the issue of slavery, he believed the Federal government did not have the power to end the institution. He also had a fierce rivalry with William Seward and Thurlow Weed, which in fact led the two to support Fillmore for the Vice-Presidential nomination. Seward wanted to eliminate Fillmore as a rival in state politics and saw the Vice Presidency as a dead-end position where his rival would be out of the way. Thus, the first and only Vice-Presidential ballot yielded a strong victory for Fillmore, with 195 delegates.

Convention Vote:


Presidential vote123Vice-Presidential vote1
H. Clay128136166M. Fillmore195
W. H. Harrison949464J. Tyler63
W. Scott574949J. Tallmadge21


The nominations decided, a resolution was passed making them both unanimous as a show of party unity. The convention then resolved, on the motion of a delegate from Connecticut, that “we congratulate the Democratic Whig Party of the United States upon the unanimity and enthusiasm which have crowned the labors of this Convention [7].” A second resolution was adopted, ‘recommending’ the ticket of Clay and Fillmore be nominated by the various state conventions and their names placed on the ballots for the general election. The delegates then adjourned for the night and reconvened the next day to formally adjourn the Convention.”

-From THE EVOLUTION OF THE WHIGS by James Welter, published 1997

[1] The POD – OTL, the convention was held in December and, with their recent losses fresh in the minds of the delegates, Clay narrowly lost the nomination.
[2] Same as OTL, Hugh L. White and John Bell disliked conventions, thinking them undemocratic, and Tennessee did not participate in the Whig convention.
[3] OTL, Georgia’s State Rights Party declined to participate. Here, with more time to deliberate on whether to send delegates, they ultimately do.
[4] OTL, Thurlow Weed flipped Connecticut to Scott on the 3rd Ballot.
[5] OTL, Biddle and his fellow Pennsylvania Whigs reluctantly backed Harrison, thinking him the most electable candidate. Here, with the convention delayed and Van Buren more vulnerable, Biddle throws in with Clay.
[6] Adapted from Clay’s OTL letter to the convention in which he acknowledged his defeat.
[7] Taken from an OTL resolution adopted at the close of the 1839 Convention.
 
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Clay Presidency....by @TheHedgehog

Now I will subscrube/watch.

Clay/Fillmore....I would have preferred Clay/Seward, but given the rivalry between the Fillmore wing and Seward wing of the party, even I am doubtful.

Going to need to dust off my Clay and Seward biographies.
 
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definitely watched! excited to see how this TL plays out
Thanks so much!
Clay Presidency....by @TheHedgehog

Now I will subscrube/watch.

Clay/Fillmore....I would have preferred Clay/Seward, but given the rivalry between the Fillmore wing and Seward wing of the party, even I am doubtful.

Going to need to dust off my Clay and Seward biographies.
Thanks!
While he might not be on the ticket, Seward will feature prominently in the TL...
 
As both a Clay fan and someone who's long wondered what a U.S. with a more successful/complete American System/School would look like, subbed!
 
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Looks really good; I've seen a coupe Clay in '44 timelines where he has to deal with Texas and mexico, but don't think I've ever seen one with Clay in '40.

Clay is only 4 years younger than Harrison but there weren't doubts about his health, so I'm sure he'll wear a raincoat come Inauguration Day. (And probably speak for less than 2 hours, too. :)
 
I've been waiting for this TL to come out ever since I saw the first glimpses of it in your test thread. I'm glad I read a Henry Clay biography last year now! I'll definitely be watching!
 
As both a Clay fan and someone who's long wondered what a U.S. with a more successful/complete American System/School would look like, subbed!
Thanks!
Looks really good; I've seen a coupe Clay in '44 timelines where he has to deal with Texas and mexico, but don't think I've ever seen one with Clay in '40.

Clay is only 4 years younger than Harrison but there weren't doubts about his health, so I'm sure he'll wear a raincoat come Inauguration Day. (And probably speak for less than 2 hours, too. :)
Thanks!
Clay definitely won't go for a marathon speech, that would make for a very short President Clay tl : )
So, is there a chance that gradual emancipation could work ITTL?
Some states will do that, but I don't want to give away too much about slavery's fate TTL.
I've been waiting for this TL to come out ever since I saw the first glimpses of it in your test thread. I'm glad I read a Henry Clay biography last year now! I'll definitely be watching!
Thanks so much!
 
I think expansion is Clay's problem, more than centralizing/industralizing/federalizing.

Clay is, at heart, an expansionist. He wants Texas, he wants California and he wants Oregon as much as most of the diehard expansionists of the time, its just he wants to do it gradually and without the need for war. He would rather work with money and treaties. I think he can get it with treaties, but that war would realistically be at his door regardless because someone further down the chain would sdcrew things up for him.
 
This exact PoD is always one I’ve considering trying to something around since I got into alternate history but I never felt my ability to render it would be proper. Watched with much enthusiasm for what’s to come!

-JustStars
 
I think expansion is Clay's problem, more than centralizing/industralizing/federalizing.

Clay is, at heart, an expansionist. He wants Texas, he wants California and he wants Oregon as much as most of the diehard expansionists of the time, its just he wants to do it gradually and without the need for war. He would rather work with money and treaties. I think he can get it with treaties, but that war would realistically be at his door regardless because someone further down the chain would sdcrew things up for him.
I don't want to say too much re: Texas, but Clay's compromise-seeking will not produce the muddled anti-annexationism of his OTL Alabama Letters.
This exact PoD is always one I’ve considering trying to something around since I got into alternate history but I never felt my ability to render it would be proper. Watched with much enthusiasm for what’s to come!

-JustStars
Thanks so much!
 
2. The Election
2. The Election

“The Democrats were unimpressed with Henry Clay, viewing him as a has-been failed candidate. His personal foibles, especially a fondness for hard drink and gambling, were also attacked. In an editorial in the pro-Democrat Baltimore Republican, John de Ziska wrote that a supposed embittered supporter of Harrison had wondered “how to get rid of Clay”, and Ziska published his suggestion: “Give him a barrel of hard cider and another of bourbon, and a pension of two thousand for the horse races and card games, and my word for it, he will sit the remainder of his days and study moral philosophy [1].” This piece was quickly reprinted by other Democratic papers, but the Whig party machinery was able to spin the taunt. Hard cider was seen as a drink of the common man, and so the Whigs decided to embrace the cider that the Democrats had derided.

The expansion in the franchise during the 1820s and 1830s meant that most white men were able to vote, including lower- and working-class men. The Whig strategy of portraying Clay as the candidate of the common man was tailored to attract these new voters. Clay was also celebrated in campaign literature as ‘Ol’ Coon’ Clay [2], emphasizing his frontier background. The Whigs also went on the offensive against President Van Buren. Amidst a lingering economic depression, Van Buren’s lifestyle was attacked by Whig papers and campaigners. Charles Ogle, a Pennsylvania congressman, gave a much-publicized speech in which he declared “If he is vain enough to spend his money in the purchase of rubies for his neck, diamond rings for his fingers, Brussels lace for his breast, filet gloves for his hands… it can constitute no valid reason for charging the farmers, laborers, and mechanics of this country with bills for hemming his dish rags, for his larding needles, liquor stands, and foreign-cut wine coolers. [3]”

To further build up Clay as the champion of the common man and tear down Van Buren as an uncaring elitist, the Whig campaign machine publicized a story from Clay’s beginnings in Kentucky politics, when during the War of 1812, he pushed through the state house a bill requiring legislators to wear homespun suits rather than imported British cloth. The goal was to paint Clay as humble, with an ear to the interests and wants of the common citizens. Of course, Clay was a wealthy planter from a wealthy planting family while Van Buren was the son of an innkeeper, but, as is standard in politics, perception is more important than reality. The Whigs held dozens of massive rallies, with hard cider and coonskin hats handed out and prominent speakers attesting to Clay’s supposed frontier roots. In a precursor to modern political mail, Clay, Harrison, Scott, and even Thurlow Weed (who wholeheartedly backed Clay in the general) pooled their disparate mailing lists to send out flyers and campaign literature to as many people as possible.

Weed also took control of campaign fundraising in order to fund the rallies and mailing lists, bringing in large contributions from land speculators who would benefit from the internal improvements a Clay presidency would bring. Weed also skimmed from tolls on the Erie Canal to fund the campaign, a scheme repeated in a number of states. Though they could not vote, women were also recruited by the Whigs to convince their husbands to support Clay, making it the first-time women were involved on a large scale in a political campaign.

Democrats were unable to both attack Clay and defend Van Buren from the Whig onslaught, and so Amos Kendall, Van Buren’s campaign manager, decided to solely focus on attacking Clay and ignore the criticisms leveled at the administration. By the end of August 1840, Clay had made no public appearances, as was the custom for Presidential candidates. This did not stop the Democratic campaign from mocking him, with one article alleging Clay had been shut away at a racetrack with hard cider and was rubbing elbows with the wealthy financiers who supported the restoration of a National Bank. Clay was initially content to answer letters from citizens, but the intensifying Democratic attacks compelled him to, on September 6th, make a speech before a few hundred supporters in Ohio defending his reputation. Clay ultimately made eleven speeches during the campaign, a first for any candidate, but he was reluctant to campaign personally and relied on General Harrison and Daniel Webster, among 5,000 other speakers, to crisscross the country campaigning for him.

The Whigs did have one weapon that the Democrats could not rely on – the state of the economy. Despite a brief resurgence in the fall of 1839, by September 1840 it had fallen back into a depression, and the Whigs never ceased to remind voters that Van Buren was president, that he hadn’t done enough to mitigate the effects, and that a Clay presidency would ease the suffering. The Whigs even recruited craftsmen, like future Senator Henry Wilson, a shoemaker, and John Bear, a blacksmith, to go on speaking tours.

Democrats questioned where the Whigs got the funds for their barrels of cider, coonskin caps, mailed pamphlets, large rallies, and newspapers, and some seized on a trip Daniel Webster had taken to England the previous year as a sign that the British were secretly bankrolling the Whig campaign. Despite Democratic allegations of secret money, Whigs performed well in the September elections, even taking the governorship in Maine, a traditionally Democratic state. Andrew Jackson weighed in on October 14th, warning that electing Clay would “tend to the destruction of our glorious Union and Republican system.” He stumped throughout Tennessee for Van Buren. Jackson also attacked Clay as, in effect, a corrupt tool of the banks to hurt the livelihoods of ordinary Americans. Democratic operatives also sought to tar Clay as an abolitionist, publicizing his past support for gradual emancipation in Kentucky and Virginia, while the anti-slavery Liberty Party attacked Clay for owning slaves, calling him a “man stealer, slaveholder, and murderer.” Worried that these attacks would sink Clay’s chances at winning in key northern states like New York, Whig managers circulated a fraudulent letter in New York and Ohio that supposedly uncovered that the Liberty Party was in cahoots with Van Buren to throw the election.

There was no set Election Day at this point in American history, with elections starting as early as September for local and state offices. Presidential balloting began on October 30 in Pennsylvania and Ohio and ended on November 23 in Rhode Island. November 2, with 12 states, including New York, was the largest voting day. Due to the spread-out voting period, Americans scoured newspapers, from the most partisan to the most reputable, for any sort of trend. With Clay trailing in Pennsylvania, it initially seemed like Van Buren could pull off a staggering upset. But a decisive Whig victory in Ohio and a narrow win for Clay in New York, President Van Buren’s home state, proved a more accurate gauge of the public mood. With Clay’s victory in New York, the election was essentially decided and, despite some Democrats alleging Whig bribery and voter fraud, he began preparing to assume the office of President.

Henry ClayMartin Van Buren
Electoral Vote194100
Popular Vote1,248,5241,152,817
Percentage51.847.9


The results were less of a landslide for the Whigs than many had hoped for, but Clay’s coattails resulted in the Whigs picking up 25 [4] seats in the House and 6 in the Senate, flipping both chambers. Clay won 194 electoral votes to Van Buren’s 100, but the popular vote was closer, with Van Buren coming within four points of Clay. Turnout was at 81%, an increase of over 50% from 1836.

Clay was almost immediately beset with office-seekers thronging his Ashland plantation. His Vice President, Millard Fillmore, later commented: “I understand they have come down on Senator Clay like a pack of famished wolves.” Clay returned to Washington in early January to fill the many federal jobs with loyal Whigs, making stops in Ohio and Pennsylvania before arriving at the capital. America had elected its first Whig President, and that President was Henry Clay.”

-From THE CLAY ERA: TRANSFORMING A NATION by Edmund Sellers, published 2017

[1] In OTL, this was written about William Henry Harrison and included mention of log cabins.
[2] A tactic from the OTL 1844 election.
[3] Taken from an OTL speech attacking Van Buren for supposedly funding his lifestyle with taxpayer dollars.
[4] The Whigs lose in Tennessee’s 4th District, which they won OTL.
 
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