I feel you, man. But win or lose, Brazil will be in for a rough time.
Both Argentina and Brazil will emerge bloodied from the war. Beyond that, I’ll keep my cards close to my chest.
The American System: A Henry Clay TL
- Thread starter TheHedgehog
- Start date
Thanks so much! You’re just in time for things getting interesting…
Well we do know Argentina has enough heft in the flashforwards to be put on a similar level as the US buy the Anti Imperialist League, so I think we know who the top dog of South America will be.
Indeed, Argentina is set to carve out a nice sphere of influence as a result of the war…
Brazil really only has a handful of avenues of attack into Arg thanks to the Ibera swamps so I’m not surprised they struggled to established a foothold much further than Entre Ríos. Those rivers would be a bitch for armies to cross too in the era before there was much in the way of bridges
Absolutely. The fact that the Brazilians got across the Uruguay at all was a stroke of luck, and that won’t do much good on its own because a lot of Argentina’s cities and industry are south and west of the Parana.
Really, Brazil doesn’t have much of a chance at total victory aside from Argentina somehow collapsing, and vice versa…
Yeah for all Argentina’s advantages on the defense, Brazil’s are even more formidable
The only question is, if the Argentines have a breakthrough, how hard and long is Brazil prepared to fight? They have the space for trenches and defense in depth, but do the soldiers and civilians have the appetite for that much fighting.
You’d probably see a quick white peace then. Argentina lacks the logistics to March across the hostile and well-developed Rio Grande do Sul/Santa Catarina plains and Brazil would want to cut their losses once they can get an honor-saving repulse, especially if they can pin an Arg division or two against the river
We shall see…
The next chapter wraps up the Spanish civil war, and then back to the Rio de la Plata…
The thing is, there's nothing Argentina wants in actual Brazilian territory, except possibly (relatively) minor adjustments to the Misiones and Corrientes borders, but the Misiones Orientales and northern Uruguay have been part of Brazil for over 60 years at this point. Argentina would likely stop once it reaches those borders, both because it's the limit of its Parana-based logistics and because Rio Grande is densely populated and would be impossibly difficult to occupy.
If, as the chapter suggests, Argentina is capable of securing naval superiority against Brazil - something it categorically failed to do in the previous wars with Brazil, severely undermining its land war - Brazil is going to struggle mightily. If Argentina is allowed to dominate the rivers that make up the border, Brazil will be rolled back sooner or later as its logistics are harried by the Argentine fluvial fleet.
And Argentina has already secured riverine supremacy, which will massively compound Brazil’s current difficulties.
58. A Splendid Little War
58. A Splendid Little War
“It was fortunate that the United States had committed relatively few ground troops to Cuba, as the small force that they did send was beset first by costly battles against the Spanish in the San Juan Hills, and then by yellow fever. The American Expeditionary Force was all but disabled by the disease just weeks after the capture of Santiago. Presented with a petition by several officers in the American Expeditionary Force, Elkins ordered the withdrawal of all army units from Cuba on August 18th, 1898, sending the afflicted men to bases on Long Island for quarantine. While American ground forces left the island, Elkins resolved t0 return once disease season had subsided.
The experiences of the Cuban forces and the American observers accompanying them allowed the army to gain a better understanding of Spanish equipment and tactics. After American troops experienced heavy losses on the Santiago campaign, largely from costly civil war-style frontal assaults. The opportunity to analyze Cuban struggles against Spanish troops was very valuable, and when Nelson Miles returned to Cuba with a recovered American army, he was far better prepared for the march to Havana than he had been for the march to Santiago de Cuba. This time, nearly 40,000 men comprised the AEF, and were to advance west in two columns: one on the north coast towards Havana and one on the south towards Cienfuegos [1].
Faced with a better prepared American army and total American domination of the seas, the Spanish army was forced into a fighting retreat. Meanwhile, the US navy bombarded Havana, seeking to destroy the city’s fortifications. Under the weight of this concerted offensive, the Spanish defenders were continuously forced back. Finally, by March 1899, the northern American column was at the gates of Havana, supported by a large contingent of Cuban revolutionaries. Initially, Weyler ordered the army to defend Havana at all costs, but with the city under naval and land bombardment, and with revolutionaries within the city harassing the defenders, the general public protested. With the city itself falling into mayhem, Weyler was forced to surrender to General Miles.
With the fall of Havana, the fighting largely came to an end. Cienfuegos surrendered on April 17th, 1899, just under a year since the war began.”
-From TO THE BRINK: AMERICA AND SPAIN by Llewellyn Carroll, published 2003
“With victory in sight, Congress turned to the future of Cuba after the war. Though the Bland Amendment [2], passed shortly before the fall of Havana, had forbidden the annexation of Cuba, many in Congress still wanted the United States to maintain significant influence in the newly independent nation. Senator Matthew Quay of Pennsylvania proposed an amendment to the 1899 army appropriations bill imposing several restrictions on the Cuban Republic. Cuba was prevented from making treaties with other nations that “inhibited Cuban independence,” the Isle of Pines was excluded from Cuba until its status could be formally settled, Cuba was required to lease ports to the United States to serve as naval bases, and that the United States had the right to intervene into Cuban affairs unilaterally to “preserve Cuban independence.” The Quay Proviso [3] was approved by Congress, and Cuba was forced to accept the provisions in the 1901 Cuban—American Friendship Treaty.
There was also a debate over acquiring naval bases in Cuba. While the anti-imperialist Democrats largely opposed such an endeavor, President Elkins and the Whigs were eager to secure American naval dominance in the Caribbean. As the Isle of Pines was excluded from Cuba’s formal borders, several politicians including Secretary of State Hanna and Senator Russell Alger urged the President to use the Quay Proviso to lease the island for an American naval base. Cuba was forced to lease the Isle of Pines, along with Guantanamo harbor, to the United States in July 1902. The American imposition of the Quay Proviso was unpopular in Cuba, and Jose Marti, despite being barred from politics by the American-backed regime, continued to work for Cuban freedom [4] …”
-From THE AMERICAN EMPIRE by Frederick Kent, published 2001
“With Cuba under joint Cuban American occupation, Porto Rico under total American control, and the navy in tatters, there was little reason besides pridefulness for the Sagasta ministry to prolong the conflict. On April 30th, 1899, Spain sued for peace under the condition that the United Kingdom serve as an intermediary. Prime Minister Arthur Balfour was viewed as a neutral presence, having worked to rebuild Britain’s relationships with both the United States and Spain. President Elkins accepted, and the negotiations were set to be held in London under the supervision of future prime minister Archibald Croft [5], then the British ambassador to Spain.
The American negotiation team was led by Secretary of State Mark Hanna and Ohio Senator Whitelaw Reid, a former diplomat. They were under secret instructions from Elkins to insist upon the “total independence” of Cuba from Spanish sovereignty and the cession of Guam and Porto Rico to the United States. The Philippines had been largely ignored by the United States, and so Elkins instructed that “the Philippine archipelago is not to be demanded as a territorial concession… economic and trade concessions are acceptable, however.” The Spanish delegation was led by Eugenio Montero Rios, a member of Sagasta’s Liberal Party. Spain was willing to concede control of Cuba and even Porto Rico and Guam, but Montero Rios was under instructions to try as hard as possible to avoid Spain being forced to assume the Cuban national debt. Indeed, it was the national debt that Spain was most unwilling to budge on, and Montero Rios began negotiations refusing to assume Cuba's debt. Ultimately, after nearly a month of negotiation, the United States agreed to evenly split the Cuban debt with Spain, along with paying Spain $15 million for Spanish-owned infrastructure in Cuba.
Shortly after the treaty was ratified by the Cortes and the American Senate, Sagasta resigned. While there had not been a motion of no confidence, he nevertheless resigned as Prime Minister, feeling humiliated. New elections were therefore called in December 1899. The Liberals remained the largest overall party, but their commanding majority had been reduced by 57 seats to a plurality. Eugenio Montero Rios was invited by King Amadeo I to form a minority government, though his government was incredibly unstable. The Cortes was divided, and conservative parties made up a majority. However, these conservatives were unable to form a coalition, as Antonio Maura’s Conservative Party refused to work with the Carlists.
Amid the parliamentary deadlock, the various parties were unable to agree on the 1901 budget. With a government funding crisis looming, Montero Rios unilaterally decreed on June 8th, 1900, that the current budget would be carried over into the next year. This was protested by the conservatives as an authoritarian move and a “liberal dictatorship.” While Antonio Maura planned to hold a vote of no confidence, General Jose Lopez Dominguez, a centralist liberal, plotted to keep Montero Rios in power. On June 10th, as Dominguez waited nearby, the confidence vote was held and Montero Rios lost, forcing him to resign. Just ten minutes later, Dominguez’s soldiers stormed the Cortes building and he declared the chamber dissolved. The deputies were expelled from the building as Dominguez sent telegraphs to his fellow generals calling on their support, which he readily received. Almost overnight, Spain’s flourishing, if chaotic democracy had been snuffed out by Dominguez’s pronuniciamiento [6].
Montero Rios refused to serve as the leader of Dominguez’s “denatured democracy,” as he derisively called the new regime. King Amadeo reluctantly invited Dominguez to form a government, but he was deeply disillusioned with the country that he had only reluctantly come to rule. He would largely step back from his public duties, even refusing to attend the opening of the Cortes. Amadeo lived as a recluse in a countryside palace, depressed and bitter. He could not abdicate lest Spain fall into chaos and potentially civil war, and so he remained in his self-imposed internal exile. By the time of his death in 1904, he hadn’t left his estate in three months. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Dominguez enforced a centralist junta, ruling with the support of a rump Radical-Liberal Cortes and the army. The Democratic Era had come to an end, eroded by defeat abroad and gridlock at home…”
-From DENATURED DEMOCRACY: A HISTORY OF SPAIN by Oliver Ickes, published 1987
“The treaty established Cuba as an independent nation. And Cuba was independent, on paper at least. The United States forced the Quay Proviso on the Cuban government, effectively suborning the new nation to American imperialist ambitions. American businessmen secured broad commercial rights to sugar production in Cuba, allowing them to force out native Cuban sugar businessmen and dominate a major sector of the Cuban economy. American-owned sugar mills paid their workers pitiful wages and jointly controlled the nation’s railroads as a single monopoly [7], the infamously corrupt National Railway Corporation. Under American dominance, the Cuban people were left impoverished and locked out of their own country’s government.
This neo-colonialism left Cuba poorer and more unstable than it had been even under the Spanish. Even worse, the United States forced Cuba to amend its constitution – not just to incorporate the Quay Proviso, but to add qualifications to the guarantee of universal male suffrage. In a country 32% Black, American imperialism led to these people – many of whom who had fought for independence – being excluded from the franchise. The addition of a property qualification of at least $250 and a literacy qualification [8] are tactics straight out of the white supremacist southern states of that era, and they were being imposed on the Cuban people at bayonet’s point.
What Mark Hanna called a “splendid little war” may have enriched American businessmen and benefited the revolving door of Cuban caudillos and corrupt oligarchs, but it resulted in nothing but poverty and chaos for the Cuban people. The Cuban Republic swiftly devolved into instability and political violence. Jose Marti, the leader of the revolution and an opponent of American imperialism, won the 1901 presidential election in a landslide. Yet Military Governor Nelson Miles, acting on the orders of President Weldon, invalidated the election results on the grounds that Marti had used fraud to win. He then installed Tomas Estrada Palma, who was living in Florida at that point, as President. The remaining US troops in Cuba suppressed the ensuing riots and protests, and Marti was arrested while holding a rival inauguration. The revolution he had led had been corrupted and perverted by the American Empire.
Cuba may have become independent, but it was by no means free. It had gone from the frying pan into the fire.”
-From THE REAL HISTORY OF AMERICA by Thaddeus Flagg, published 2020
[1] OTL the Spanish surrendered once their navies had been savaged. TTL, they have just enough of a fleet left to not rush to seek peace.
[2] Just the Teller Amendment from OTL.
[3] The same as the OTL Platt Amendment.
[4] Marti will be back, as he attempts to make Cuba more like America, against America’s wishes.
[5] I will get into Britain in more detail as the TL moves into the 20th century. This guy is fictional, though.
[6] Based on the OTL 1874 Paiva Coup.
[7] The sugar and railroad stuff is all based on OTL.
[8] Sadly, this happened OTL.
“It was fortunate that the United States had committed relatively few ground troops to Cuba, as the small force that they did send was beset first by costly battles against the Spanish in the San Juan Hills, and then by yellow fever. The American Expeditionary Force was all but disabled by the disease just weeks after the capture of Santiago. Presented with a petition by several officers in the American Expeditionary Force, Elkins ordered the withdrawal of all army units from Cuba on August 18th, 1898, sending the afflicted men to bases on Long Island for quarantine. While American ground forces left the island, Elkins resolved t0 return once disease season had subsided.
The experiences of the Cuban forces and the American observers accompanying them allowed the army to gain a better understanding of Spanish equipment and tactics. After American troops experienced heavy losses on the Santiago campaign, largely from costly civil war-style frontal assaults. The opportunity to analyze Cuban struggles against Spanish troops was very valuable, and when Nelson Miles returned to Cuba with a recovered American army, he was far better prepared for the march to Havana than he had been for the march to Santiago de Cuba. This time, nearly 40,000 men comprised the AEF, and were to advance west in two columns: one on the north coast towards Havana and one on the south towards Cienfuegos [1].
Faced with a better prepared American army and total American domination of the seas, the Spanish army was forced into a fighting retreat. Meanwhile, the US navy bombarded Havana, seeking to destroy the city’s fortifications. Under the weight of this concerted offensive, the Spanish defenders were continuously forced back. Finally, by March 1899, the northern American column was at the gates of Havana, supported by a large contingent of Cuban revolutionaries. Initially, Weyler ordered the army to defend Havana at all costs, but with the city under naval and land bombardment, and with revolutionaries within the city harassing the defenders, the general public protested. With the city itself falling into mayhem, Weyler was forced to surrender to General Miles.
With the fall of Havana, the fighting largely came to an end. Cienfuegos surrendered on April 17th, 1899, just under a year since the war began.”
-From TO THE BRINK: AMERICA AND SPAIN by Llewellyn Carroll, published 2003
“With victory in sight, Congress turned to the future of Cuba after the war. Though the Bland Amendment [2], passed shortly before the fall of Havana, had forbidden the annexation of Cuba, many in Congress still wanted the United States to maintain significant influence in the newly independent nation. Senator Matthew Quay of Pennsylvania proposed an amendment to the 1899 army appropriations bill imposing several restrictions on the Cuban Republic. Cuba was prevented from making treaties with other nations that “inhibited Cuban independence,” the Isle of Pines was excluded from Cuba until its status could be formally settled, Cuba was required to lease ports to the United States to serve as naval bases, and that the United States had the right to intervene into Cuban affairs unilaterally to “preserve Cuban independence.” The Quay Proviso [3] was approved by Congress, and Cuba was forced to accept the provisions in the 1901 Cuban—American Friendship Treaty.
There was also a debate over acquiring naval bases in Cuba. While the anti-imperialist Democrats largely opposed such an endeavor, President Elkins and the Whigs were eager to secure American naval dominance in the Caribbean. As the Isle of Pines was excluded from Cuba’s formal borders, several politicians including Secretary of State Hanna and Senator Russell Alger urged the President to use the Quay Proviso to lease the island for an American naval base. Cuba was forced to lease the Isle of Pines, along with Guantanamo harbor, to the United States in July 1902. The American imposition of the Quay Proviso was unpopular in Cuba, and Jose Marti, despite being barred from politics by the American-backed regime, continued to work for Cuban freedom [4] …”
-From THE AMERICAN EMPIRE by Frederick Kent, published 2001
“With Cuba under joint Cuban American occupation, Porto Rico under total American control, and the navy in tatters, there was little reason besides pridefulness for the Sagasta ministry to prolong the conflict. On April 30th, 1899, Spain sued for peace under the condition that the United Kingdom serve as an intermediary. Prime Minister Arthur Balfour was viewed as a neutral presence, having worked to rebuild Britain’s relationships with both the United States and Spain. President Elkins accepted, and the negotiations were set to be held in London under the supervision of future prime minister Archibald Croft [5], then the British ambassador to Spain.
The American negotiation team was led by Secretary of State Mark Hanna and Ohio Senator Whitelaw Reid, a former diplomat. They were under secret instructions from Elkins to insist upon the “total independence” of Cuba from Spanish sovereignty and the cession of Guam and Porto Rico to the United States. The Philippines had been largely ignored by the United States, and so Elkins instructed that “the Philippine archipelago is not to be demanded as a territorial concession… economic and trade concessions are acceptable, however.” The Spanish delegation was led by Eugenio Montero Rios, a member of Sagasta’s Liberal Party. Spain was willing to concede control of Cuba and even Porto Rico and Guam, but Montero Rios was under instructions to try as hard as possible to avoid Spain being forced to assume the Cuban national debt. Indeed, it was the national debt that Spain was most unwilling to budge on, and Montero Rios began negotiations refusing to assume Cuba's debt. Ultimately, after nearly a month of negotiation, the United States agreed to evenly split the Cuban debt with Spain, along with paying Spain $15 million for Spanish-owned infrastructure in Cuba.
Shortly after the treaty was ratified by the Cortes and the American Senate, Sagasta resigned. While there had not been a motion of no confidence, he nevertheless resigned as Prime Minister, feeling humiliated. New elections were therefore called in December 1899. The Liberals remained the largest overall party, but their commanding majority had been reduced by 57 seats to a plurality. Eugenio Montero Rios was invited by King Amadeo I to form a minority government, though his government was incredibly unstable. The Cortes was divided, and conservative parties made up a majority. However, these conservatives were unable to form a coalition, as Antonio Maura’s Conservative Party refused to work with the Carlists.
Amid the parliamentary deadlock, the various parties were unable to agree on the 1901 budget. With a government funding crisis looming, Montero Rios unilaterally decreed on June 8th, 1900, that the current budget would be carried over into the next year. This was protested by the conservatives as an authoritarian move and a “liberal dictatorship.” While Antonio Maura planned to hold a vote of no confidence, General Jose Lopez Dominguez, a centralist liberal, plotted to keep Montero Rios in power. On June 10th, as Dominguez waited nearby, the confidence vote was held and Montero Rios lost, forcing him to resign. Just ten minutes later, Dominguez’s soldiers stormed the Cortes building and he declared the chamber dissolved. The deputies were expelled from the building as Dominguez sent telegraphs to his fellow generals calling on their support, which he readily received. Almost overnight, Spain’s flourishing, if chaotic democracy had been snuffed out by Dominguez’s pronuniciamiento [6].
Montero Rios refused to serve as the leader of Dominguez’s “denatured democracy,” as he derisively called the new regime. King Amadeo reluctantly invited Dominguez to form a government, but he was deeply disillusioned with the country that he had only reluctantly come to rule. He would largely step back from his public duties, even refusing to attend the opening of the Cortes. Amadeo lived as a recluse in a countryside palace, depressed and bitter. He could not abdicate lest Spain fall into chaos and potentially civil war, and so he remained in his self-imposed internal exile. By the time of his death in 1904, he hadn’t left his estate in three months. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Dominguez enforced a centralist junta, ruling with the support of a rump Radical-Liberal Cortes and the army. The Democratic Era had come to an end, eroded by defeat abroad and gridlock at home…”
-From DENATURED DEMOCRACY: A HISTORY OF SPAIN by Oliver Ickes, published 1987
“The treaty established Cuba as an independent nation. And Cuba was independent, on paper at least. The United States forced the Quay Proviso on the Cuban government, effectively suborning the new nation to American imperialist ambitions. American businessmen secured broad commercial rights to sugar production in Cuba, allowing them to force out native Cuban sugar businessmen and dominate a major sector of the Cuban economy. American-owned sugar mills paid their workers pitiful wages and jointly controlled the nation’s railroads as a single monopoly [7], the infamously corrupt National Railway Corporation. Under American dominance, the Cuban people were left impoverished and locked out of their own country’s government.
This neo-colonialism left Cuba poorer and more unstable than it had been even under the Spanish. Even worse, the United States forced Cuba to amend its constitution – not just to incorporate the Quay Proviso, but to add qualifications to the guarantee of universal male suffrage. In a country 32% Black, American imperialism led to these people – many of whom who had fought for independence – being excluded from the franchise. The addition of a property qualification of at least $250 and a literacy qualification [8] are tactics straight out of the white supremacist southern states of that era, and they were being imposed on the Cuban people at bayonet’s point.
What Mark Hanna called a “splendid little war” may have enriched American businessmen and benefited the revolving door of Cuban caudillos and corrupt oligarchs, but it resulted in nothing but poverty and chaos for the Cuban people. The Cuban Republic swiftly devolved into instability and political violence. Jose Marti, the leader of the revolution and an opponent of American imperialism, won the 1901 presidential election in a landslide. Yet Military Governor Nelson Miles, acting on the orders of President Weldon, invalidated the election results on the grounds that Marti had used fraud to win. He then installed Tomas Estrada Palma, who was living in Florida at that point, as President. The remaining US troops in Cuba suppressed the ensuing riots and protests, and Marti was arrested while holding a rival inauguration. The revolution he had led had been corrupted and perverted by the American Empire.
Cuba may have become independent, but it was by no means free. It had gone from the frying pan into the fire.”
-From THE REAL HISTORY OF AMERICA by Thaddeus Flagg, published 2020
[1] OTL the Spanish surrendered once their navies had been savaged. TTL, they have just enough of a fleet left to not rush to seek peace.
[2] Just the Teller Amendment from OTL.
[3] The same as the OTL Platt Amendment.
[4] Marti will be back, as he attempts to make Cuba more like America, against America’s wishes.
[5] I will get into Britain in more detail as the TL moves into the 20th century. This guy is fictional, though.
[6] Based on the OTL 1874 Paiva Coup.
[7] The sugar and railroad stuff is all based on OTL.
[8] Sadly, this happened OTL.
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Yeah Cuba has gotten screwed hard by the US, and Central America will soon get a similar treatment...
AUGH, don’t remind me. I’m damn aware of the US using Latin America as its own playground. I’m just hoping the worst is averted or at least potentially fixed sooner