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If America had lost the war of 1812 much worse, even losing Michigan Territory, and much of Maine, Illinois Territory, and the North extent of the Missouri Territory, how would the Civil War be affected?

Based on my knowledge, this would shift the balance of Free/Slave states in such a way that slavery would continue into the late 1800's. But what about New England?

Should I expect the New England states to secede later on following 1812? Or would no Civil War of Any kind occur? If a New England Civil War did occur, who should I expect to win?
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