The American Civil War following a crippling defeat in 1812

If America had lost the war of 1812 much worse, even losing Michigan Territory, and much of Maine, Illinois Territory, and the North extent of the Missouri Territory, how would the Civil War be affected?

Based on my knowledge, this would shift the balance of Free/Slave states in such a way that slavery would continue into the late 1800's. But what about New England?

Should I expect the New England states to secede later on following 1812? Or would no Civil War of Any kind occur? If a New England Civil War did occur, who should I expect to win?
 
I think that fragmentation would be more likely than any immediate civil war. There was less of a national identity at the time, so the federal government would be written off as a failed experiment.

If the federal government does persist, then, yes, the balance of slave and free states would alter a slavery-based civil war. I don't see how the economics of slavery would change, so it would likely spread as much as geography would allow. A sufficiently defeated America might be prove unable to colonize and then take over Mexican Texas, though.
 
An American defeat in 1812 can lead to two things: manifest destinying its way west similar to OTL, or complete collapse.

In the first case, it depends on the actions of the different presidents and their treatment of the territories (because let's face it, Britain won't hold all of that western land, and the USA will be pretty angry). If slavery extends west, the slave states may keep the advantage in Congress forever, and no war would ever be necessary. If some Northerner that doesn't like slavery is in power, you could see a stack of free states carved out of the west (like what happens in the 1840s of my TL), and that will almost certainly trigger a war.

If you go the collpase route, the USA is done as an idea. Finished. Period.

Re Texas and similar stuff... In any of these TLs, Mexico will be stronger compared with the US than in OTL, enough so that a Mexican War-style curbstomp won't happen. Realistically, I doubt the border will be much further west than Mexico held in the 1820s, at least until several decades after the OTL Mexican war.

- BNC
 
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