Who do you think will win the election?

  • George W. Bush (R)

    Votes: 31 9.7%
  • Al Gore (D)

    Votes: 103 32.2%
  • Donald Trump (I)

    Votes: 186 58.1%

  • Total voters
    320
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I think Trump would do pretty well among liberal Democrats who don't like Gore, especially the ones who voted for Nader IOTL, with his support of universal healthcare and general reformist policies. In 2016, there were a lot of Bernie-to-Johnson voters even though their platforms were very different, so I can see a lot of Bradley-to-Trump voters here.

I wonder if Nader himself is actually doing better than OTL, because Trump's ITTL run has created more optimism for Third Parties.
 
I'm enjoying this timeline, but I do have a couple of nitpicks.

1) I don't think that Trump should be that high in the PV polling. While, he may be able to win the popular vote, I don't see him cracking 40%
2) The EV polling numbers are WAY too high. The electoral college, whether it's intentional or unintentional, has successfully prevented a third party victory for centuries. Therefore, there is absolutely no way Trump wins a landslide in polling or in the general election.

Your absolutely right, I think we'd need some major gaffes or scandals to get Gore or Bush to loose an electoral landslide like that. He might hit 300, but anything closer to what he got in 2016 is aiming a bit high. He's got to convince blue dog democrats, conservatives, and independents. Without some key endorsements that'll be very hard. Of course, Gore is an uncharismatic stooge, Bush is Bush. He's probably going to win. But, a landslide? I doubt it, if because not many Americans are independents, and only in really tough primaries do you usually see party members vote against their party.
 
Trump had a post-convention bounce, but the three are polling roughly equal by the start of October.

Yeah, I thought those poll numbers were for early November. Which is why I felt like they were a little excessive. Granted post convention bounces in my little memory usually don't go for more than a few points, 400 EV seems like a lot for a "post convention" bounce.
 
Yeah, I thought those poll numbers were for early November. Which is why I felt like they were a little excessive. Granted post convention bounces in my little memory usually don't go for more than a few points, 400 EV seems like a lot for a "post convention" bounce.

Ross Perot hit about 40% and over 400 EV in 1992 before he drooped out. In addition, with the country split three ways like that, Trump comes through the middle in several states due to vote splitting by the other two candidates.
 
1st Vice-Presidential Debate
1st Vice-Presidential Debate

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The first Vice-Presidential debate of 2000 was held in Danville, Kentucky. The running mates of all three major tickets were invited, Lieberman, Cheney and Schwarzkopf. These were big names, and the vice-presidential showdown would prove to be as interesting as the upper half of the tickets.

However, "Stormin' Norman" stole the show early on with his impressive performance for a newbie politician. In fact, in comparison to Admiral Stockdale 8 years ago, Schwarzkopf seemed relaxed and at home. Cheney and Lieberman weren't ready for this, and Schwarzkopf outshone the both of them.

Veterans were a contentious issue, and all three candidates had their own views. However, Schwarzkopf managed to connect with the audience the most, talking about his own career and how he looked after his men. He pitched Trump's Veterans Affairs policies to the nation and hammered the other candidates as uncaring and unprepared.

Schwarzkopf is generally credited with winning the support of the bulk of the military to Trump's camp, and cementing Trump and himself as experienced candidates who can help fix the country.

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The highlight of the night came from the clash between Schwarzkopf and his old boss, Dick Cheney. Cheney tried to point out differences between Schwarzkopf and Trump as well as trying to get Norman to contradict his running mate. Schwarzkopf would have none of it, defending his record and the record of his running mate. He also had this to say...

Secretary Cheney, with all due respect, you are just another career politician. You haven't fought on the battlefield, you don't know what it's like to be a warrior. It takes just a stroke of a pen to authorize a war, but it takes guts to actually go over the top.

I don't think you or your running mate really appreciate the sacrifices our armed forces have made in our nation's history. Me and my running mate are the only ones who will reform the corrupt Veterans Affairs departments and help our wounded vets.


Schwarzkopf was judged to be the overwhelming victor of the debate, ane helped bring gravitas to the ticket.


Who won the vice-presidential debate?

Schwarzkopf - 55%
Lieberman - 29%
Cheney - 25%
 
Secretary Cheney, with all due respect, you are just another career politician. You haven't fought on the battlefield, you don't know what it's like to be a warrior. It takes just a stroke of a pen to authorize a war, but it takes guts to actually go over the top.

Now that is a Vice-Presidential debate zinger. Well done.

I think it is an excellent timeline. Don't slow down.
 
11: Nader
Nader

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As the other three candidates duelled, another candidate emerged. Activist Ralph Nader was running as the nominee of the Green Party, hoping to pick up votes from the disaffected left-wing of the Democrats. While Nader had been left out of the debates, he still commanded a respectable 5% support from voters, enough if he could hold it to ensure federal funding for the Green Party.

However, he had been greatly overshadowed by the Reform party's campaign, but Trump's candidacy wasn't all bad news for Nader. In fact, optimism for third parties was at an all time high now and Nader could successfully exploit that to bring attention to his long shot campaign.

Nader_at_O17.jpg


Nevertheless, Nader was still excluded from the debates and he didn't have a real chance of outright winning. Still, Nader thought, he was running to bring attention to the Greens and the issues, as well as hopefully secure federal funding for the party. If anything he could at least leave his mark on history.

When interviewed about his opinions on the other candidates, Nader almost leant towards prefering Bush (only because he would likely be a bad president who would energize the left) but instead decided to lean towards Trump. He said that while Trump was still a billionaire, he respected his honesty and straight talk.

However, Nader was running as his own man, and he was intending to show the world that the Green party could be a force for change. If the dice rolled in his favour, he would get that chance.

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Nadar will probably sink Gore more than OTL, especially if Gore was/is hammered during the debates. One the reasons that democrat turnout in 2016 was so low, was that many people didn't like Hillary's performance and answer to many question. Why Gill Stein and Gary Johnson both broke records.
 
I don't think Nader would be doing so hot. Wasn't he big on anti-NAFTA and pro-worker? Trump's candidacy will kinda take away the sails from that and just leave Nader with the environmentalist hippie vote.
 
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