The Allies without Ultra

Nobody has mentioned the delay in strategic operations the lack of Ultra would have caused. The allies were extraordinary cautious in their operations, especially after the early defeats and which led to the the myth of the German ubersoldier.

Reading the German mail and their numbers and intentions allowed them to undertake operations with a reasonable confidence of success. Without that, they would have turtled or at the very least hedged their bets.

Without ultra knowledge, the Russians experienced some painful setbacks until the Germans were decisively weakened.

Without ultra knowledge, the western allies are going to experience some nasty surprises of their own and heavy losses aren't going to inspire Churchill & Co to land any sooner in France....
 
While Ultra was very useful, it wasnt the only way of getting info.
It wasnt the war-winner in the Battle of the Atlantic - it wasnt until quite late that it could decoide at a useful speed, and there were a number of long blackouts

Look to see more effort on all other data collection methods if Ultra isnt available - it wouldnt be as good, but it would compensate a fair bit
 

Deleted member 1487

Without ultra knowledge, the Russians experienced some painful setbacks until the Germans were decisively weakened.

The Russians had their own spy networks in Germany that had nothing to do with Ultra. Rote Kapelle for instance had infiltrated the German General Staff, making the Russians very much privy to German plans. Don't expect the Russian Front to sit still. They will continue the same without Ultra.

Also the head of German intelligence, Canaris, was working with British intelligence during the war, providing perhaps even more vital information than Ultra. Even without Ultra that source would still exist and may actually provide more data than historically because the deficit without Ultra.
 
The Russians had their own spy networks in Germany that had nothing to do with Ultra. Rote Kapelle for instance had infiltrated the German General Staff, making the Russians very much privy to German plans. Don't expect the Russian Front to sit still. They will continue the same without Ultra.

Actually Rote Kapelle passed along Ultra information to the Soviets, it's just that the Rote Kapelle operatives didn't know it was Ultra information.

Thanks to the usual Soviet paranoia and the WAllies deisre to keep their code breaking successes secret - successes that allowed them to read the Kremlin's mail too - Stalin & Co. were "fed" Ultra decrypts via known Soviet spy networks. Some of Rote Kapelle's best sources in Switzerland and elsewhere weren't German contacts but instead were actual WAllie operatives or operatives handling WAllies produced intelligence.

This isn't to diminish huge amount of incredible work Rote Kapelle accomplished, only to point out that some Rote Kapelle's successes were actually successes from Bletchely Park.

Even without Ultra that source would still exist and may actually provide more data than historically because the deficit without Ultra.

Agreed, and that subtle point is what the "ZOMG There will be no D-Day! And the U-boats will win!!!" crowd are failing to appreciate. Ultra was a tiny part of the overall Allied intelligence effort, one that rarely if ever provided real time information, and it's "loss" can be almost wholly made up for through many, many other methods.
 
THe other thing is that Dragoon is likely to happen with or without D-Day. In fact it had been supposed to happen before the invasion of Normandy, but Italy took longer than it was supposed to have.

An Allied invasion in the south of France just isn't going to be as effective as an invasion of Normandy, if nothing else the supply lines are far worse and you then have further to go to get to Germany.

BUT. No D-Day does NOT equal no invasion of Europe.

(and just think how (much more) insufferable Churchill would be...):)
 
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