The Airwar in Lebanon, 1983

MacCaulay

Banned
I had an idea for a short story awhile ago to do a one-off vignette over Lebanon in '83 for my Alternate Dogfights. I still might write it, but I figured I'd pitch the idea so folks could take a crack at what's behind it.


For those of you who may not know, United States Marines and French army and Foreign Legion forces were based at the Beirut International Airport. A suicide truck bomber destroyed the buildings where the forces were staying, killing many servicemen.

In response, the French carried out airstrikes in the Beqaa Valley on Revolutionary Guards positions where Hezbollah was thought to be trained by Iranian advisors.

Reagan's staff decided on an airstrike against the Sheik Abdullah barracks where it was felt Hezbollah had planned the attacks. France was brought on board as well, but Reagan's Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger talked Reagan out of it.

So...let's suppose for few moments that in 1983, America and France decide to stay in Beirut and declare this limited air war against Hezbollah, if only on a tit-for-tat basis. What comes of it?

What happens with the Israelis? What happens with the Syrians who are currently having an on-again off-again air war of their own against the IAF in this same airspace?
 
Hmmm. Wasn't that Amal or Islamic Jihad? I don't think that Hezbollah even actually existed until 1985 two years later.

At best, there's some notion that the group that did the marine bombing might have become part of what became Hezbollah, but back in 1983, there was no Hezbollah per se, just a sort of loose amalgamation of Shiite militias on the outs with Amal.

Fighting them would be like fighting mud. There's really no coherent entity to struggle against.

And I don't see how an air war would have been an effective way to do it.

But then again, if there was systematic US targetting of Shiite militias, I could see two interesting outcomes. One is Hezbollah butterflies away and never forms at all. Iranian influence diffuses. The Shiite remain politically marginalized and ineffective in Lebanese society.

The other is that given American pressure, Shiite militias and groups congregate under Amal, and Amal becomes the big challenge.

Anyway, it seems interesting. Go with it.
 
Well would it really be alternate dogfights or alternate airstrikes? Can't see Assad being crazy enough to even allow for the remote possibility that his airforce may accidentally stumble into an engagement with the Americans and French over this.

As for the airwar itself, it could lead to mission-creep.

Should the airstrikes successfully take out those Revolutionary Guards trainers it could lead to Iran upping its commitment to Islamic Jihad and throwing more money at other groups willing to oppose Israel, the US, France, various Lebanese factions of which it does not approve, etc.

Overall it could drag the US and France to become more involved in Lebanon (not necessarily a good thing) if only for a brief time.
 
The only way that this could work was to make the Lebanonesearmy strong enough to control the country once the air strike had taken out the Revolutionary Guard trainers oyherwise one is going to sooner or latter require the presence of US and French ground forces.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
The only way that this could work was to make the Lebanonesearmy strong enough to control the country once the air strike had taken out the Revolutionary Guard trainers oyherwise one is going to sooner or latter require the presence of US and French ground forces.

Even in the 80s, America wasn't really a big fan of cleaning up it's messes. Or even caring what happened once it made them. We really just liked dropping bombs. And there were targets picked out and the French were game.
 
If you want to add land/naval flavor, you could link it to the then conflict between French/Chadian troops and Libyan forces a little to the south. Libya being a sponsor of terrorism in the 1980s, the 1983 bombings could be traced to the good Colonel, meaning his venturing in Tibesti would be seen as more sinister than in real life...
 
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