the absolute worse out comes from invading Japan?

The death toll from disease will depend on which agent(s) are loosed. Every disease has a particular "standard" mortality. Of course given the malnourished condition of the Japanese this goes up, and of course the very young and very old will be at greater risk even before you throw in the malnutrition. Given the known agents unit 731 was working with I would expect a death rate averaging >50% of the infected. I would expect pretty widespread extension of the diseases.
 
If Japan hasn't surrendered by Spring of 46, the W Allies invade. The initial resistance is fanatical but is basically blown out of existence by overwhelming air, naval, and ground power. In some areas, the Japanese are able to mount significant defenses as in Okinawa, but these are few. The Japanese soldiers are malnourished, know their families are dead, and know there's no Empire really left to fight for.
Or in other words, nothing left to live for but revenge and the knowledge of who put them in that situation.
 

gaijin

Banned
I'm not convinced that the Japanese would fight to complete extermination, they were already starting to surrender in large numbers at Okinawa, their will to resist would be broken a year or two after an invasion of the mainland

Japanese people aren't a hive mind. If the Germans didn't all become suicidal when Hitler killed himself, then neither would the Japanese after the end of their monarchy.

All the propaganda about monarchs being divine and godly won't be enough to prevent them from falling out of favor sooner or later in times of crisis - and Japan's is no exception in this scenario. Assuming the emperor gets killed sooner or later in the allied invasion, people will be too busy finding enough food to survive for their fanaticism to remain high. Internal resistance to the militarists will pick up, and a surrender wouldn't seem too bad an option for those who are starving.

You're vastly overestimating the fanaticism of the general population. There was already some resistance to the war effort. Once mass starvation sets in, the general population certainly won't give a damn about the emperor.

What these good folks are saying.

Regardless of how fanatical the Japanese were, the simple fact remains this: they were human and they did have a breaking point. The fact that they come from a different cultural background doesn’t mean they are less susceptible to human feelings like fear, survival instinct and the desire to save the ones they love. Just because they are Japanese doesn’t mean they are all robots willing to die for the emperor, that’s simply ridiculous.

Once it is clear that the war is hoplessly lost they will surrender. In our TL this happened once the Soviets invaded Manchuria. The Japanese were willing to fight, die and see their cities burn to cinder in the hope that they could get something out of the war. The whole idea was that they could inflict enough casualties on the Americans to make them doubt and sign a compromise peace. The double wammy of the nuclear bombs and the Soviet declaration of war, made it clear that that was not an option anymore. They promptly surrendered.

In other scenarios they would do the same: surrender as soon as it's clear they have no hope.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
I think the "Japanese will fight to the last man" is a myth. There were voices for surrendering even before the nukes. I think the hardliners in the Japanese government quickly would lose all support if there are hostile troops on the home islands.
 

gaijin

Banned
Actually I think the key point in surrendering was the Soviet DOW. The Japanese simply didn't understand the significance of the nuclear bomb at the time.

Look at it from the point of view from the Japanese high command: A complete city just got obliterated by one bomber. So what, most of your cities have been obliterated already, nothing new there.

However, the godless Communist Russians are coming!!! That is new indeed.

The Japanese would probably have fought on a bit longer if it were just the A bombs, they were used to losing cities. Once the Soviets came in, it became clear that not only was the game really up, there might be a soviet occupation!!!
 
Which, judging by your link, were only written after the Japanese surrender. When the real war was still going on, preparing for the Cold War against the Russians was a distant priority at best.
It was published two weeks after the Japanese surrender. The staff work that went into the Atomic Bomb Production memorandum imply that work must have started some time earlier; in fact, the associated maps were certainly complete by the end of August.

There's some obvious hedging in the memorandum, though:
It is also obvious that during this period Russia and the United States will be the outstanding military powers. For the purpose of this study the destruction of the Russian capability to wage war has therefore been used as basis upon which to predicate the United States, atomic bomb requirements. It is to be noted also from a geographical aspect alone, Russia is in the most favorable strategic position of any major power.
Now, I'm not claiming anyone believed that the USSR wasn't the next enemy, but the wording there implies that the Cold War wasn't a foregone conclusion, and that outright stating that an ally of four years was now an enemy just two weeks after the war wasn't considered particularly wise. It's a definite nod to the fact that at the time of preparation, the postwar order had yet to find its' final form.
 
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