The 90-day wonder war, January 1984, from Beirut to Bushehr

The impact of a US campaign against Iran during the Iran-Iraq war would be:

  • a) It would not happen, because Saddam Hussein would refuse to accept the help or share "credit"

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • b) Saddam would enthusiastically favor the support and try to make the most of it

    Votes: 27 64.3%
  • c) Iraq would secure all of Khuzestan within a few months

    Votes: 9 21.4%
  • d) Iraq would only be able to gain the banks of the Shatt-al-Arab, and not much further

    Votes: 4 9.5%
  • e) There would be an Iraqi-Iranian armistice before 90 days are over

    Votes: 5 11.9%
  • f) There would not be an Iraqi-Iranian armistice before 90 days are over

    Votes: 5 11.9%
  • g) The Khomeini regime would stay firmly in controlled

    Votes: 2 4.8%
  • h) The Khomeini regime would have destabilization and possibly collapse

    Votes: 9 21.4%
  • i) Iraq gains Khuzestan and becomes a wealthier, less indebted state, leaves Kuwait alone

    Votes: 7 16.7%
  • j) Iraq, flush with victory by the mid-80s, goes after Kuwait that decade

    Votes: 9 21.4%
  • i) Iraq, flush with victory, goes after Syria next

    Votes: 2 4.8%
  • j)Iranian & Syrian support for international terrorism increases

    Votes: 11 26.2%
  • k) Iranian & Syrian support for international terrorism decreases

    Votes: 2 4.8%
  • l) Iraq associates with anti-western terrorists like Abu Nidal and Abul Abbas

    Votes: 2 4.8%
  • m) Iraq distances itself from terrorists who attack westerners

    Votes: 12 28.6%

  • Total voters
    42
Who *wasn't* purged and unable to take power or get involved in 1984 Iran, just different factions of the clerical movement I suppose?

So a big lost war and revenue doesn't get Communists a chance at a comeback? Does it give anybody a chance at a comeback, or just a different faction of the elite? Or, are Khomeini and his core associates resilient in the face of huge setbacks?
Shahist factions in the military could make another attempt at a coup
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
islamic_states_1850_lg.jpg


Going to be a bit of a problem with all the Persians in Khuzestan.

Well, Khuzestan may have alot of Persians but it is majority Arabic-speaking. that would be especially so if the Iraqi annexation is limited to the traditional "Arabistan" region, which according to some sources, comprises less of the whole Khuzestan province, it is the area south and west of the "Ahwaz ridge".
 
Shahist factions in the military could make another attempt at a coup

That would be the military who, in 1979 during the revolution, deserted in huge numbers away from the Shah because they were sick of the corruption, and to the demonstrators.

It's estimated that over 1978 and 1979, some 60% of the Iranian Army deserted. I think Shahist factions come 1984 are going to be rather thin on the ground.
 
That would be the military who, in 1979 during the revolution, deserted in huge numbers away from the Shah because they were sick of the corruption, and to the demonstrators.
I thinking along the line of being ideological similar to the shah so i guess neo-shahist would be a better term ?
 
Could Iran turn to Afghanistan by trying to annex Herat and free the Hazaras or install an Islamic regime in azerbaijan in the aftermath of an Iraqi victory to shore up support ?
 
Last edited:
I thinking along the line of being ideological similar to the shah so i guess neo-shahist would be a better term ?

Not the Army. Come the revolution, and they're pretty much the staunchest supporters, outside the clergy, of the regime. Oil workers, now there you've got a shot at getting a significant disgruntled group.
 
Could Iran turn to Afghanistan by trying to annex Herat and free the Hazaras or install an Islamic regime in azerbaijan in the aftermath of an Iraqi victory to shore up support ?
Installing an Islamic regime in Azerbaijan would certainly be an interesting endeavor given Azerbaijan was still a Soviet SSR at the time... Picking a fight with the avowedly atheist superpower on it’s northern border might not be the best course of action for the Islamic Republic following a military defeat to Iraq.

Similarly, I believe the then-Afghan government was Soviet supported so efforts in that direction would run into similar issues.
 
Installing an Islamic regime in Azerbaijan would certainly be an interesting endeavor given Azerbaijan was still a Soviet SSR at the time... Picking a fight with the avowedly atheist superpower on it’s northern border might not be the best course of action for the Islamic Republic following a military defeat to Iraq.

Similarly, I believe the then-Afghan government was Soviet supported so efforts in that direction would run into similar issues.
I was talking about the early 1990s , post soviet collapse
 
Top