No. The German government after Bismarck's resignation realized that same things that Bismarck had already concluded: Germany could no longer run a double game regarding Austria and Russia, the secret treaty could not be kept secret much longer, and Germany needed to choose.
Because he was a fucking idiot and didn't understand the implications of maintaining an alliance with Russia and the expense of losing an alliance with Austria.
Because he wasn't a fucking idiot and understood the implications of maintaining an alliance with Russia and the expense of losing an alliance with Austria.
Because he was a fucking idiot and, when Caprivi explained the sound reasons behind not renewing the secret treaty, Wilhelm realized hed' completely fucked up when he gave the Russian ambassador a personal guarantee just a few days before.
Wilhelm very rarely faced up to the consequences of his actions, after the Daily Telegraph affair he hid in his bed for weeks, so in failing to tell Caprivi about the personal guarantee, Wilhelm was running true to form.
Not in the slightest. Victoria was rather shrewd and was smart enough to know the value of sound advice.
Wilhelm dismissed Bismarck because Bismarck was getting all the attention Wilhelm felt was rightfully his.
As for Caprivi, he'd been on the job for less than one day. How would it look to Germany and the world if the All Highest appointed a chancellor and fired the same chancellor on the same day? Even the Kaiser was smart enough to realize he'd look pretty fucking stupid.
What you want to "buy" or not is of no consequence. Only the facts matter and you cannot ignore the facts.
Wilhelm wasn't a complete puppet, as you seem to think we're suggesting, and Wilhelm wasn't a complete autocrat, as you'd like him to be. There was a constant give and take between Wilhelm and Germany's government. While Wilhelm imposed his will on some occasions,the government far more often, won on far more significant issues, and won from the very beginning of his reign.
No. The most important part is you finally understanding that Wilhelm's desires did not automatically translate into German policy. In the historical example I posted, Wilhelm desired a renewed Russo-German alliance enough to issue a personal guarantee on his honor as Kaiser yet Wilhelm was dissuaded from his desire after relatively brief conference with his chancellor.
Germany no longer wanted the alliance because Germany could not make the Russian alliance and the Austrian alliance work at the same time. Russia's needs and Austria's needs could not be reconciled.
No one is suggesting that a Russo-German alliance is ASB. No one is suggesting that a Russo-German alliance that accommodates Austria or an Austro-German alliance which accommodates Russia is ASB. What people are suggesting is that your suggestion about a Russo-German alliance whose sole POD is Wilhelm having a bright idea is ASB.
Significant changes need to be made and you've suggested none.